When there is change at the Fed, there is a ‘DIGESTIVE period': Expert
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…, YES, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ISN'T A NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT WE CAN SEE TODAY, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY. I STILL THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROMISE THERE, AND YOU DO HAVE THE INFLECTION IN FREE CASH FLOW, BUT IT'S TRICKY. CHARLES: RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE LOCKHEEDED HARRIS, LHX -- >> L3 HARRIS. CHARLES: YEAH. >> SO THAT'S ANOTHER STOCK. THE DEFENSE STOCKS WENT CRAZY WHEN THE WAR BROKE OUT, THEN THEY GOT SMACKED AROUND. THEY WERE GOING TO SPIN OUT A PARKING LOT OF THEIR BUSINESS. THEY -- PART OF THEIR BUSINESS, THEY DENIEDED -- DE…
RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE LOCKHEEDED HARRIS, LHX -- >> L3 HARRIS.
Contexte extrait par IA CHARLES: RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE LOCKHEEDED HARRIS, LHX -- >> L3 HARRIS. CHARLES: YEAH. >> SO THAT'S ANOTHER STOCK. ... BUT IF NOTHING ELSE, THE LAST 6-12 MONTHS HAVE TAUGHT US WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO NEED MORE MISSILES, AND THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GET BUILT ON AMERICAN SOIL.
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…NMENT SPENDING, THAT ALWAYS HITS THE DEFENSE PRIMES PRETTY HARD. BUT IF NOTHING ELSE, THE LAST 6-12 MONTHS HAVE TAUGHT US WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO NEED MORE MISSILES, AND THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GET BUILT ON MESH SOIL.. -- AMERICAN SOIL. CHARLES: UNITED RENTALS, YOU LIKE THIS ONE AS WELL. >> THERE'S A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WAS TESTED DEEPLY IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS BECAUSE I REMEMBER WHEN THEY NEARLY WENT BANKRUPT IN 2008-2-2009. I THINK THAT GAVE THEM AN INCREDIBLE NEW ROAD MAP OF HOW TO THINK ABOUT THEIR BALANCE SHEET, BOTH OF NEW AND USED EQUIPMENT. AND I THINK PEOPLE EXTRAPOLATE THE SPEND FOREVER AND FORGET THEY SELL OFF SOME OF THAT USED EQUIPMENT AFTER A FEW YEARS. CHARLES:S: YEAH. AND I TELL YOU WHAT, EVERY TIME -- I TELL PEOPLE WHEN YOU WALK OUTSIDE AND THEY'RE THE BUILDING, YOU …
CHARLES: UNITED RENTALS, YOU LIKE THIS ONE AS WELL. >> THERE'S A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WAS TESTED DEEPLY IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS BECAUSE I REMEMBER WHEN THEY NEARLY WENT BANKRUPT IN 2008-2-2009. I THINK THAT GAVE THEM AN INCREDIBLE NEW ROAD MAP OF HOW TO THINK ABOUT THEIR BALANCE SHEET, BOTH OF NEW AND USED EQUIPMENT.
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…AND WHY THERE'S HESITATION TO MAKE A CHANGE. CHARLES: IT WON'T HELP WITH AUTO INSURANCE, AUTO MAINTENANCE, COLLEGE TUITION. I WANTED TO -- LAST TIME YOU WERE ON YOU GAVE US LILL Y., THROUGH THE ROOF. UBER'S DONE A LIT -- DOWN A LITTLE BIT. ARE YOU STAYING WITH UBER? >> THE MARKET KEEPS SAYING RECHECK YOUR THESIS. CHARLES: RIGHT. >> I THINK LONGER TERM, YES, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ISN'T A NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT WE CAN SEE TODAY, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY. I STILL THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROMISE THERE, AND YOU DO HAVE THE INFLECTION IN FREE CASH FLOW, BUT IT'S TRICKY. CHARLES: RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE LOCKHEEDED HARRIS, LHX -- >> L3 HARRIS. CHARLES: YEAH. >> SO THAT'S ANOTHER STOCK. THE DEFENSE STOCKS WENT CRAZY WHEN THE WAR BROKE OUT, THEN THEY GOT SMACKED AROUND. THEY WERE GOING TO SPIN OUT A PARKING LOT OF…
ARE YOU STAYING WITH UBER? >> THE MARKET KEEPS SAYING RECHECK YOUR THESIS. CHARLES: RIGHT. >> I THINK LONGER TERM, YES, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ISN'T A NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT WE CAN SEE TODAY, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY. I STILL THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROMISE THERE, AND YOU DO HAVE THE INFLECTION IN FREE CASH FLOW, BUT IT'S TRICKY.
Contexte extrait par IA CHARLES: LAST TIME YOU WERE ON YOU GAVE US LILL Y., THROUGH THE ROOF. UBER'S DONE A LIT -- DOWN A LITTLE BIT. ARE YOU STAYING WITH UBER? >> I THINK LONGER TERM, YES, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ISN'T A NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT WE CAN SEE TODAY, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY. I STILL THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROMISE THERE, AND YOU DO HAVE THE INFLECTION IN FREE CASH FLOW, BUT IT'S TRICKY.
Transcription Complète
CHARLES: IT'S BEEN A WEEK, A LONG WEEK -- [LAUGHTER] SINCE THAT FOMC GATHERING. BUT THE MITTSES KEEP COMING. KEVIN WARSH, REMEMBER, HE PROMISED MAJOR CHANGES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE. HE THINKS IT'S THE MOST CRITICAL TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OUTSIDE OF EMERGENCIES. BUT NO ONE SEEMED TO BE THE HAPPY, AT LEAST NOT THE ESTABLISHMENT. I WANT TO BRING IN ALPINE SAXSON WOODS CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST IS, SARA HUNT. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND THESE ARE KIND OF UGLY, THE CENTRAL RESERVE GOES WHACKO. KEVIN WARSH IS FACING MORE THAN A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. I THINK THAT WAS NEW YORKER. YOU HAD THE FIFTH FED OFFICIAL SAY THAT I THINK WE SHOULD HIKE WITH SCHMIDT YESTERDAY. NOW ON THE FLIPSIDE, THORSON THIS MORNING WITH A PIECE SAYING, WARSH IS RIGHT. THAT'S KIND -- KIND OF HOPEFUL. AND THEN BESSENT COMES OUT SWINGING AT "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL," DEFENDING WARSH. WHAT DO YOU MAKE AT ALL OF THIS? >> I THINK CHANGE IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR EVERYBODY. WHEN YOU HAD SOME SORT OF A TRACK RECORD THAT YOU COULD LOOK BACK AND GO I THINK IF X HAPPENS, Y IS GOING TO HAPPEN AND THE FED IS GOING TO DO THIS. ANYTIME YOU HAVE A DIVESTING PERIOD, YOU'RE GOING -- A CHANGE AT THE FED, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVS COMING OUT TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY THINGS SHOULD HAPPEN IN A DIFFERENT WAY. I THINK THIS IS A PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT. I DON'T DISAGREE THE FED NEEDS BETTER DATA SOURCES THAN IT HAD IN THE PAST, AND IT'S HARD TO KEEP A HANDLE ON ALL OF THOSE VARIABLES THE WAY THAT WE WERE DOING IT IN THE PAST. IS THAT GOING TO BE -- ARE WE FIXING EVERYTHING? I DON'T THINK ANYONE'S TO GOING TO BE HAPPY WITH WHATEVER COMES OUT BECAUSE YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO GET 100% BUY-IN, BUT I THINK MORE INFORMATION IN TRYING TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE FED IF THINKS ABOUT IT, AND I THINK THAT'S THE BIGGEST PROBLEM, PEOPLE ARE STILL LOOKING, OKAY, WHEN YOU SAY, AND, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? IF IT HAPPENS, ARE WE GOING TO GO TO Y? CHARLES: RIGHT. AND SO I GUESS THE FOLKS WHO HAVE SOMEWHAT COME TO DEFEND WAR WARSH ON THE OTHER PART OF THIS, MAYBE MARKETS ARE DEPENDENT TOO MUCH ON THE CENTRAL RESERVE, AND MAYBE PEOPLE WHO DO THIS FOR A LIVING, MAYBE IT'S TIME TO JUST ROLL UP YOUR SLEEVES AND TO DO THIS WORK YOURSELF AS OPPOSED TO GAMING THE FEDERAL RESERVE. EVEN TO LIKE, EVEN HAVING FEWER MEETINGS. I LIKE THE IDEA OF FEWER MEETINGS BECAUSE I I JUST THINK THE REACTIONS TO THESE MEETINGS HAVE BEEN SO SEVERE THAT IT JUST, YOU KNOW, THERE'S NO -- YOU KNOW, THE OFFICIAL MARKET THING IS OUT THE WINDOW. >> WELL, WITHOUT TRYING TO DATE MYSELF, I'VE BEEN LONG ENOUGH TO REMEMBER WHEN IT WASN'T YOU WERE GIVEN A ROAD MAP VERY CLEARLY -- CHARLES: THERE WAS A BRIEFCASE INDICATOR. >> THERE WAS A SANDWICH INDICATOR, A LOT OF INDICATORS. [LAUGHGHTER] BUT I THINK THERE WAS A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE, YOU KNOW, RIGHT NOW WALL STREET SPECIFICALLY IS ALWAYS SO REACTIVE TO THINGS, AND WE WANT THE ANSWER TODAY WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN AND THEN THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THE ECONOMY DOESN'T MOVE AS FAST AS INFORMATION DOES, CAN AND I THINK THAT THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR NOT REACTING TO EVERY SINGLE MONTHLY MEETING OR EVERY SINGLE THING THAT HAPPENS BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT TO TAKE SOME TIME TO FIGURE OUT WHAT'S TO GOING ON HERE. JUST LIKE WHAT'S GOING ON WITH A LOT OF THE PRICING RIGHT NOW. IS HIKING RATES REALLY GOING TO SOLVE AN OIL CRISIS? I DON'T THINK IT IS. SO I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THERE'S HESITATION TO MAKE A CHANGE. CHARLES: IT WON'T HELP WITH AUTO INSURANCE, AUTO MAINTENANCE, COLLEGE TUITION. I WANTED TO -- LAST TIME YOU WERE ON YOU GAVE US LILL Y., THROUGH THE ROOF. UBER'S DONE A LIT -- DOWN A LITTLE BIT. ARE YOU STAYING WITH UBER? >> THE MARKET KEEPS SAYING RECHECK YOUR THESIS. CHARLES: RIGHT. >> I THINK LONGER TERM, YES, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE ISN'T A NEAR-TERM CATALYST THAT WE CAN SEE TODAY, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY. I STILL THINK THERE'S A LOT OF PROMISE THERE, AND YOU DO HAVE THE INFLECTION IN FREE CASH FLOW, BUT IT'S TRICKY. CHARLES: RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE LOCKHEEDED HARRIS, LHX -- >> L3 HARRIS. CHARLES: YEAH. >> SO THAT'S ANOTHER STOCK. THE DEFENSE STOCKS WENT CRAZY WHEN THE WAR BROKE OUT, THEN THEY GOT SMACKED AROUND. THEY WERE GOING TO SPIN OUT A PARKING LOT OF THEIR BUSINESS. THEY -- PART OF THEIR BUSINESS, THEY DENIEDED -- DECIDED TO WAIT ON THAT, BUT THERE'S A TON OF BACKLOG GOING IN THERE. PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT SPENDING, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, THAT ALWAYS HITS THE DEFENSE PRIMES PRETTY HARD. BUT IF NOTHING ELSE, THE LAST 6-12 MONTHS HAVE TAUGHT US WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO NEED MORE MISSILES, AND THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GET BUILT ON MESH SOIL.. -- AMERICAN SOIL. CHARLES: UNITED RENTALS, YOU LIKE THIS ONE AS WELL. >> THERE'S A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WAS TESTED DEEPLY IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS BECAUSE I REMEMBER WHEN THEY NEARLY WENT BANKRUPT IN 2008-2-2009. I THINK THAT GAVE THEM AN INCREDIBLE NEW ROAD MAP OF HOW TO THINK ABOUT THEIR BALANCE SHEET, BOTH OF NEW AND USED EQUIPMENT. AND I THINK PEOPLE EXTRAPOLATE THE SPEND FOREVER AND FORGET THEY SELL OFF SOME OF THAT USED EQUIPMENT AFTER A FEW YEARS. CHARLES:S: YEAH. AND I TELL YOU WHAT, EVERY TIME -- I TELL PEOPLE WHEN YOU WALK OUTSIDE AND THEY'RE THE BUILDING, YOU HAVE THESE CRANES OR SOMETHING, TAKE A LOOK AT WHO IT IS, IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE UNITED RENTAL. >> IT IS THE BIGGEST EQUIPMENT RENTAL COMPANY IN THE U.S. AND PARTS OF CANADA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD. IT IS A JUGGERNAUT OF A COMPANY,
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