Why Bond Market Disaster Could Push Bitcoin Above $100K: Fundstrat

Why Bond Market Disaster Could Push Bitcoin Above $100K: Fundstrat

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  1. BTC CRYPTO ACHETER -0,14%
    Entrée $84 643,00 02 oct 2026
    Actuel $84 524,00 03 oct 2026
    Résultat −$119,00
    vs. indice — BTC est l'indice de référence — il n'y a pas d'excédent à mesurer
    Contexte de la transcription source
    …ny kind of pullback, you know, say Bitcoin theoretically pulls back 10% from here. I think there's going to be folks, you know, chomping at the bit to to get involved at those levels both in Bitcoin and and along the risk curve. And so, um you I do think you'll you'll want to buy that dip. And you I think coming into the year obviously I was a bit measured through midy year. Um but you know I did foresee at some point us rebounding into year end. I I think that's I think that's going to be the case here. I thought we could g…

    you I do think you'll you'll want to buy that dip.

    Contexte extrait par IA I think that's right. I think that's right. And and I think there's going to be um you know, on any kind of pullback, you know, say Bitcoin theoretically pulls back 10% from here. I think there's going to be folks, you know, chomping at the bit to to get involved at those levels both in Bitcoin and and along the risk curve. And so, um you I do think you'll you'll want to buy that dip. And you I think coming into the year obviously I was a bit measured through midy year.

Transcription Complète
I do think we're at a point where we have enough signals in place that indicate that Bitcoin has made durable cycle lows and I think that we have a macro story now that should shift liquidity trends in crypto's favor. I would just start to get involved here, look for spots to get involved and you know I I I think if uh this is a the truly truly the start of a new cycle, which I think it is, you know, there's going to be a lot of opportunities to to make money to to be alongside. So, I actually do think we could get above that 100k level, you know, before 2026 wraps up. >> Welcome in everybody to another episode of Coinage. I'm your host Zach Guzman coming to you live from our Brooklyn studios here in New York City as we are watching Bitcoin at what may be the most important teetering point that we have seen in a long time as Bitcoin continues to try and hold this early crypto spring if you want to call it that as we move out of what uh what was a pretty tough bare market or are we actually moving out of one that's the big question and excited to have on the show with us today fund strat Sean Frell he's the head of digital assets strategy over there. Sean, it's good to see you again. >> There we go. There we go. It's I mean, it's it's an exciting time mostly because uh every time we have you on, normally things are down, but right now things are up. And I think the biggest question that everyone in our community is asking right now is, hey, ask Sean if we were actually in the clear. So, I guess we'll start there. Are you buying this this move higher? Yeah, Zach, I I I uh I actually meant to buy some puts before I came on today just because uh yeah, we're we're like eight for eight on red days when I'm when I'm on on your show, but I think we might be in the clear today. We'll see. You know, knock on wood. But um you know, all joking aside, I I do think um I think last time I was on I was I was getting more encouraged. I think we were showing a lot of signs of the bottoming process beginning, but we did not have any sort of indication that the liquidity regime was going to turn. Did not have a compelling macro story just yet to hang our hat on because at the end of the day, liquidity and the growth of liquidity relative to the growth in earnings that is the lifeblood of Bitcoin and Bitcoin is for better for worse and and this is changing, right? We're seeing idiosyncratic outperformance. By and large, the market goes as Bitcoin goes. So, you know, if you're analyzing the crypto market, if you're a liquid token investor, it makes sense to spend the at least over half of your time analyzing the path of Bitcoin. And I do think we're at a point where we've we have enough um signals in place that indicate that Bitcoin has made durable psych cycle lows. And I think that we have a macro story now that should shift liquidity trends in crypto's favor. So yes, I think we're uh obviously not going to be a straight shot up and to the right, but I do think it is time to uh you know, think about getting more aggressive over a you know, medium to longer term time horizon. Yeah, we just had um uh your compadre there at Funstrap, Tom Lee, on uh coinage last week kind of highlighting why he's also in the same camp particular I guess when it comes to this idea of tokenization really starting to heat up and obviously as the chair of Bitine uh very much exposed to Ethereum kind of capturing some of that. But I'm glad you point out kind of some of the macro stuff because I guess push back would be conventional wisdom is when we see you know rates moving higher right now the yield on the 10ear being I think the highest since 2002 uh generally that would send some jitters through markets and into crypto but we're not really seeing that yet. So maybe if you could just explain why uh you think that is and why you think it kind of leads to maybe more confidence in Bitcoin being able to move higher. Yeah, I mean that tension right there is a bull case in and of itself. I think that the you know we've seen I think we have four rate hikes priced in the curve over the next 12 months. We like you said we have the 10 year the highest level since 2007 and this is a function of a macro backdrop a um you know a scene in which the US has a debt to GDP profile over 120% has fiscal deficit to GDP profile of 6 to 7% and that is expected to grow and rate hikes have actually compounded that issue. CBO came out with a report a couple of weeks ago saying that you know 1% increase in the average interest costs of the treasury would uh you know if you add that to their baseline forecast that extends their deficit to GDP projection from what was 9% in 30 years to 14%. And I think this elucidates the big catalyst for crypto which happened in I believe it was August 19th when Treasury Secretary Scott Besson came out and announced that he would you know up buybacks of long-end treasuries and fund those purchases via bills. And I think that reinforces the playbook of policy makers which has covertly been not covertly um has uh slowly been enacted over the past five six years which is a combination of inflation uptrend inflation and financial repression. We saw some financial repression back in 2023 uh via active treasury issuance by Jenna Yelen. I think we're seeing that right now with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and some of his adviserss. They are very keen on [snorts] uh reducing supply of long-term treasuries in the market in hopes to lower financing costs for the US government. >> Yeah. and replace that with bill issuance and and that ultimately a it reduces uh obviously that is intervention and it is stimulative and it uh you know it it leads to money creation via bill issuance. Banks stop up that bill issuance and create money uh in in the private market. think that that is uh leads to monetary debasement and moni monetary debasement leads to Bitcoin outperformance and I think we're we're starting to see that come into uh fruition right now. It's kind of scary though, honestly, a little bit when we're talking about it because I know this is kind of the long-held thesis, but it has rarely been kind of a point where we see it uh so acutely maybe uh when we're seeing, you know, Scott Bess and Treasury Secretary really try and battle this right now. Um and kind of what it means for hard assets. Um because, you know, we've heard this from kind of other people as well. Anthony Scaramucci uh being like, "Hey, look, if Bitcoin actually reaches like a million dollars one day, that means that like America has faltered or maybe the world is ending." Like, I don't know. I don't know if it's necessarily the world's not ending or yields being as high as they are. It's not it's not that crazy, but it is also kind of feel it feels like one of those moments. I don't know. So, is is it maybe fair to say that like this is somewhat of a breaking point? >> Possibly. Probably not. I I don't I don't know if some something like uh I think I think monetary debasement and this uh playbook that I just described. I don't think that's kind of like a a thing that it's not a switch that just flips on. I think it's more like a melting ice cube, right? And um it's one of those things where after five 10 15 20 years you look back and the value of your your dollars are [snorts] you know down 80% and hard assets have outperformed obviously in in fits and spurts but um you know like I said this is a trend that has kind of been passively being enacted and it has been working in the background. And I think that's a reason why, you know, Bitcoin only drew down uh you know, what was it 55 60% maybe this this bare market as opposed to um you know the traditional bare markets where you see draw downs of 70 to 80%. >> Um and so you know I think that uh I I agree with you. If if we were to wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin would be priced at uh seven figures, it probably would not be a great thing. you probably would uh you know I think ammunition probably would be more valuable than uh and and can and canned goods would probably be more valuable than than Bitcoin at that point. Well, I think I I get your point. I get your point around it being kind of a slow burn situation just like kind of the rate the the the rate of change and the pace of it I think seems to be accelerated in that thesis of hard assets. And it's something that Mark Yusco, who was just on the show as well, was kind of tweeting about in and mostly this tweet that was uh calling out kind of pay in terms of Ford factory workers pay in gold versus kind of uh the salary in dollars and how it's changed if you kind of look at the salary in gold terms. Kind of similar, I think, in terms of what you're describing around Bitcoin and and the idea of hard assets. Um but it's not just Bitcoin that we've been watching. I mean, the other big kind of pieces of this have also been, as I mentioned, tokenization and pers and the like. Uh, I know last time we had you on, you were a big hyperlid bull as you've been adding that to the to the model portfolio. Uh, elsewhere though, we did see a pretty big move in lighter. I wanted to get your take on kind of where you're at when it comes to measuring the the upside here in the leading per names and and what you make of that continued thesis. Yeah, look, I think Lighter is is a great application. I think that they've done a really great job in in building out their offerings. I think they're going to continue to add, you know, products to their offerings. I know they're they're launching, you know, an options product pretty soon. And I think that they're going to continue to be successful. It's just a matter of, you know, am I being compensated for do do I like this project at this price? And I think my stance has been that uh you know I like sticking to the leaders which you know right now is hyperlquid across you know any metrics that matter. they, you know, far and away are are the market leader. And I think that in crypto, you know, market leaders compound, right? Uh those liquidity based network effects, they compound. And it's tough. It's tough to, you know, tap, you know, chisel into that market share. If later were able to start chiseling into that market share, I think that I would be absolutely compelled to give them a look. But, um, you know, right now I view Hyperlquid kind of as as the market leader. And I think um you know also as we talked about last time I I do think that there are some supply concerns right now. So from a riskreward with cliff unlocks coming in a couple of months you know for later I I would like to see that perhaps get baked into the price a little bit uh before giving it you know another look which you know could present an opportunity perhaps into the NFQ4 which I think is when they are scheduled to be unlocked. Um, I would have to double check on that exact date, but [snorts] um, yeah, look, great great project in in lighter. It's just, uh, you know, it's it's more of a a price than a project thing. >> Yeah, which I think is is kind of interesting just in terms of how quickly some of these things have moved um, and how quickly, you know, they've kind of blasted onto the radar. I would put maybe Zcash into a similar kind of uh I guess category considering there weren't a lot of people talking about it and then all of a sudden there are ETFs popping up, there's DATs around Zcash. It's like okay this is a thing that kind of came out of nowhere but there are so many other different ways to kind of play privacy. Um and and I don't know man it's it's you can look at NER as well. uh so many different names kind of having their own little story and this is maybe something that you're kind of highlighting right now around the breath of how many tokens are catching a bid and what that maybe tells you about what stage we're in. >> Yeah. Um there are a lot of things working right now and uh I think in this environment you can look if if you're if you're a trend following strategy and you are trading in and out on a you know intraday basis I think it makes a lot of sense to get involved in some of these hot names because momentum is a lifeblood of crypto assets. That reflexivity I think that's what makes it such an entertaining asset class. But um yeah, I I I wrote I've been writing over the past week how there have been some near-term tensions building in markets. You know, this is separate apart from kind of a medium to longerterm macro thesis. And [snorts] my bias is that this still resolves higher because I think that sooner rather than later, a lot of the rate volatility we're seeing is going to roll off and we're going to get another leg higher. But, you know, I did want to acknowledge the fact that, you know, we've seen a pretty impressive bounce off the lows from altcoins. And, uh, you know, this rally has extended pretty far out in the risk curve. And, you know, breath in crypto is a little different than breath in the equity market. When breath in the equity market starts to rise, a, it's a bit more gradual. B, it's uh, you know, normally portends additional constructive price action as that breath expands. In crypto, you know, once you see the percent of tokens above their 200 day moving average, get above that 80% threshold, more often than not, say for some circumstances like, you know, back around the ETF launch where you really had a step change, step function change in the flows coming into the space. [snorts] um that is that is often a time where it's it's a yellow flag. You know, you want to keep your head on a swivel and you know, if we don't see rate volatility resolve in a constructive direction in the near term, that could you know, lead to some some consolidation. You know, it doesn't mean that alts need to go down 40 to 50%. Uh but you know, it does kind of you know, warrant it's a data point that you want to want to respect. >> Yeah. Now, I almost feel like, you know, there are some people who may be experimenting with leverage on some of these per platforms we mentioned. And anytime you have a move like this, it can blow some people out. So, important to kind of flag some of the shorter terms. But if I if I were to kind of consolidate your points there, it sounds like generally because we we've seen some notes as we were talking about on the show yesterday, 77 around there where Bitcoin could kind of fall to levels of support, 80,000 some people are saying like kind of if this pullback were to continue, but through Q4 and into year end, some people calling for 100k Bitcoin. I can't remember what you've called for. So if you're not playing with leverage, it really doesn't matter if you do see a little bit of that pullback. Is that kind of generally the the message you'd be delivering to investors? >> I think that's right. I think that's right. And and I think there's going to be um you know, on any kind of pullback, you know, say Bitcoin theoretically pulls back 10% from here. I think there's going to be folks, you know, chomping at the bit to to get involved at those levels both in Bitcoin and and along the risk curve. And so, um you I do think you'll you'll want to buy that dip. And you I think coming into the year obviously I was a bit measured through midy year. Um but you know I did foresee at some point us rebounding into year end. I I think that's I think that's going to be the case here. I thought we could get back to 115 for Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. I don't think we're going to get there, but I actually do think we could get above that 100k level, you know, before 2026 wraps up. >> Well, that's good to hear. here. I mean, I again just kind of bringing up uh if I remember at the beginning of the year, you might have been in the same camp that we heard from Tom Lee in terms of ETH will be the fastest horse. Right now, as he's been pointing out, that certainly has been the case in Q3 with the outperformance uh in Ethereum. I want to get your take on kind of how that's trickling into other ecosystems as well, the trend of tokenization because not to be overlooked, Salana also kind of chugging along, enjoying its nice little role as a high beta play. um kind of wondering like kind of when you step back and just look at that overall trend, how you see it trickling through and what might be some of the best uh bets to make around the theme. >> Yeah, it's been really impressive to to watch the um you know all of those dashboards of tokenized RWAS move on chain. We are it definitely appears that we are reaching a you know parabolic phase of that of the adoption of of tokenization. I think that the innovation exemption from the SEC was a was a big signal in the right direction. You know I fundamentally there there are some it's a it's a sandbox right and there are some limitations to that exemption. there's some um you know the list of assets that can be traded on chain in these AMMs those are those are limited there's volume limit limits but I think the signaling is what's important and I think it further reinforces the fact that look assets are equities are moving onto new financial rails and I think that is starting to trickle into tradi circles you know folks that are a bit more crypto curious folks that you know latched on to the trend of sta stable coins and stable coins were kind of this uh appetizer, right? They're already familiar with the idea of porting these traditional assets onto crypto rails and so folks are, you know, digesting this and and getting it. And I think that um you know going back to the whole idea of monetary debasement and the need for the government to issue a lot of treasury bills. If you look at the innovation exemption, you know, it is stating it's stated within that innovation exemption that you know each tokenized equity needs to be paired with a stablecoin or a money market fund. And that is uh you know if you have trillions of equities moving on chain that need to be paired with trillions of stable coins or money market funds on chain that is intuitively another sponge for all of this bill issuance and so it does align with policymakers goals and I think folks are starting to come around to that and uh yeah like you said I think there's going to be a lot of winners downstream obviously the public permission less chains such as ETH, such as Salana should do quite well. The transfer agent tokenization platforms uh they should benefit um distribution avenues like Coinbase, Robin Hood, the you know the folks that can spin up their own uh TSVs, I think they're called the tokenized security venues, they can do that via separate entity, benefit from those cash flows. And um you know I also think DeFi benefits. I think that that is um I think a lot of these beaten down DeFi names that have bounced pretty considerably off the lows but are still trading at multiples that are well below their cyclical highs of prior cycles and um you know have sound tokconomics return capital to token holders. I think they're going to benefit from higher quality assets being on chain and you have, you know, hopefully you get this kind of RWA flywheel, right? Where the quality and the the lower lower vol these lower volatility assets move on chain serve as higher quality collateral on chain and that just kind of creates this positive flywheel effect. And so I think DeFi should be a big beneficiary. >> Yeah. I wonder if there's a name that kind of stands out to you in that realm. uh cuz we just had Aer Drrome also on the show uh Alex Cutler the founder over there just kind of looking at you know that opportunity and it was interesting cuz they you know I think when you had added them I don't know if they ever made it into the model portfolio over on the fund strat side but they were certainly a name that you talked about a lot when they were kind of the main and they still are the main uh decks on base but now launching on ETH and then adding support for Robin Hood chain which is very interesting because we're kind of in this Robin Hood Coinbase war right now and uh an interesting move by them as unis swap has kind of been leading there. So I don't know if a name like them kind of stands out. Yeah, I think they're a very compelling project, especially, you know, if their multi-chain expansion, if they execute well on that, um, you know, if you you look at their fundamentals relative to unis swap, unis swap, you know, I think they're trading at about 17th 1/8 maybe of unis swap's value. So even on a relative value basis, I think there's some compelling upside there. And yeah, I'm a big fan of the team, big big fan of the project. I I I like the tokconomics. I uh you know, we did have them in the model portfolio last bull market. Have not added them back. You know, I think we're um you know, like I said, it's been a pretty violent rally off the lows. And um you know, I may uh you know, at the risk of being called flatfooted. I I think I am just being a bit uh I want to be a bit opportun opportunistic in adding some of these DeFi names. But Aerome is uh well I guess do they go by Aer Drrome anymore or they're just Arrow now? >> I think they're just Arrow now. >> Um yeah I think I think that's a Yeah, it's a very compelling project. Um but you know yeah I mean I think dex names like arrow unis swap they should benefit borrow platforms you know I think we're you know if we just look at our watch list you know we really like some of the the RWA activity that's happening on Camino which is on Salana they're doing a lot of borrow lend with uh tokenized reinsurance products which I think is interesting >> um you know obviously you have a which is the blue chip borrow platform which I think should also benefit that. So, I think there's a lot of opportunity there just about finding, you know, picking and choosing your spots. >> Yeah. I mean, I think that that's a good call out because we kind of saw that happen around the Robin Hood chain launch. Very similar to kind of what happened with Bass is like there weren't a lot of clear tokens to attach to an ecosystem exploding so quickly. Uh, you kind of have to figure out which ones are going to be the ones. pawns. The launchpad on Robin Hood chain seemed to be one that caught huge massive traction going from like half a penny to 60 cents. Uh, and so I don't know on the on you called out one that I hadn't heard of on the Salana deck side, but I think that's kind of an interesting component as they figure out kind of which ones might be what was the name of it. I just want to make sure I write it down. >> Oh, the one uh Camino. >> Yes, there you go. Yeah, they're they're the uh they're the leading borrow platform on uh on Salana. >> Well, that's just because I think we've seen a lot of different things pop up. I know Backpack is now super lovered to the idea of tokenized stocks and execution there. And and I think last time we had you on as well, there's this other elements that we've seen now in continued kind of convergence of Bitcoin miners that may not even be Bitcoin miners anymore, but now data centers. I think last time we had you on, you called it out as one opportunity to watch. I haven't checked in necessarily, but I was just dragging up the um the WagMe ETF for uh Coin Shares as kind of a proxy for it. I don't know if that's still one of the the bets that you'd be making right now or or what you're making of kind of this AI crypto convergence. >> Yeah, I mean I think uh I think there's still some obviously this this area of the market has underperformed. It's underperformed for a couple of reasons. Obviously there are some there have been some doubts trickling in about the pace of uptake in AI. There have been some you know there have been some some concerns about some of the debt that has been issued on some of these data center center buildouts. You know, I know a lot of know a lot of folks saw the articles about Oracle who came out and requested a force majour on any delay on one of the data center data centers that they're building out somewhere in the southwest. I forget exactly where it is, but that has certainly trickled into the broader AI capex receiver complex. And you pair that with the fact that like we talked about the tenure is at uh you know it's over it's the highest since 2007. So that does lead to a higher cost of capital and that has weighed on a lot of these names and there's obviously the policy aspect as we head into midterms where it does look like Congress is going to flip which could widen the aperture for some kind of regulatory proceeding. there's just been a bevy of negative c uh you know negative factors affecting the broader AI space but I do think that as those risks one by one come off I do think that a lot of these minor names do have some pretty compelling upside when that turns it's probably going to be anchored to whenever we see some softening in the 10ear and uh but so so we'll see how that plays out but I do think that there's still opportunity opportunities in a a lot of those names. >> Yeah, I think it's a good point. Uh, one that may be overlooked when it comes to kind of the impacts of of higher yields and what that means. Certainly, we've seen it [snorts] uh among those who are buying homes um in mortgage rates right now. Um >> 7 7.2% mortgage, Zach. >> I mean, come on. What What are people to do out there? It's that and and it's student loan debt and it's a lot of this. Interestingly, in in Tom's presentation at KBW, I do think he was talking about inheritance and the idea of like kind of millennials coming up and and inheriting what their parents may have out there and kind of how they want to allocate and if it is like well real estate's tough where those assets go is a very interesting thesis. One I didn't consider. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I I guess the the solution would be to buy to would be to build more houses, but that is a very difficult thing in this country for some reason. >> Yeah, it's not it's not always the discussion points that you and I get into on our crypto focused uh chats, but but a very interesting kind of piece that I think is is tied to all this. And I guess zooming out, Sean, to kind of put all the pieces together, um, you know, it does seem like we are still seeing despite all of those, uh, headwinds that we open the show with that we're kind of in this weird uh, instance. The only thing that I kind of point to is is what you've included in your research notes recently, which I guess we've gone a full 30 minutes with me not complimenting the research, as I'm always want to do. If you're watching this and you don't kind of uh subscribe to what Funstrat pumps out, highly recommend. But the piece that I think is guiding me on my journey in Q4 is we are above the 200 moving day average which you've pointed out historically is generally a good signal of things to come uh positive things to come. And so is that kind of maybe the most bullish metric you'd be pointing to right now >> among the you know I think it's uh you know I look at a number of metrics. I think that was a very encouraging sign. Whenever Bitcoin spends, I think it's, you know, over 150 days or so below its 200 day moving average. I need to double check that figure and then closes above that 200 day moving average. Normally that portends pretty constructive price action over the next, you know, the ensuing 12 months. I think perhaps the more material trend break trend break if we're talking about moving averages was the 50WE which is a bit more formidable long longer term level of support and resistance and we did conclusively break through that a couple weeks ago and that is normally a signal of a longer term regime shift. I know that a lot of folks uh a lot of trend following strategies um you know because that that's that's uh that's a big factor here you know now you know Bitcoin is Bitcoin any for Bitcoin any they're both now on the radar of trend following strategies which is a another incremental source of flows and you know could bring us into this uh more of a trending environment now now that we've we've kind of cleared those moving averages and are starting to to trend higher. >> Yeah. There's one thing too, I don't know, just to answer my own question, I'll pose it to myself, but even even people that do track and are deep in the space, one thing that I haven't seen almost anyone talking about, it's like it was the main story in the summer when things were bad and now as it starts to turn, I think the X dividend date for for Stretch yesterday. >> I know that you flagged it as, hey, let's see if we can get back to par. We kind of got there. I think Stretch kind of reclaimed 99.50. Um, which to consider that it was at like 72 back this summer, like it's a pretty big if if all of a sudden strategy can raise billions again and start buying Bitcoin, I feel like that's an overlooked factor. >> Yeah, we're getting close. I think that, you know, if you look at the response post all the, you know, the initial short covering and short squeeze back in August, we've seen very, you know, substantial flows into the crypto space via ETFs, stable coin creation, via DATs now, which a lot of them are above uh 1xmab and are buying coins again, which is great. And the most bullish aspect is that strategy has really sat out this entire rally. And that is because stretch is not trading at par. And obviously we talked I think we've talked on several occasions about some of the risks around that STRC product and the potential impact on the market. But they've done a pretty good job. Obviously, they messed up pretty big time at the beginning of this year with some of their capital markets activities, which we don't have to get into now, but they've done a good job of rep repairing their balance sheet, uh, shoring up their USD reserve, and, you know, they have slowly been, you know, prior to leading into the last several X dividend dates, they've been getting closer and closer to that $100 par value. And perhaps that uh I guess it's it's going to be October 15th. I don't know the exact date but that mid-occtober exhibit date perhaps we can actually get to get to par and that becomes this new catalyst a new incremental source of price insensitive flows into Bitcoin and the broader complex should benefit and if it doesn't happen midmon perhaps we look to to month end as that uh that catalyst date for for stretch to to reanchor to par. Yeah, it's just one thing that is interesting because it doesn't come up at at all anymore in any discussions I'm having. >> Yeah, nobody's talking about it. It's uh it's it's very odd. It was all anybody was talking about for >> Yeah. >> the better better part of six months really. >> For real though. And and you know, we had Fong on the show, strategy CEO back then and kind of you know, he was making the rounds to kind of, as you said, fix uh what was messed up. Um but now, you know, we're in a different regime and it's very interesting to watch. But going back to it, is there anything else? I mean, I I think on the Bessant front and what we saw with Fed Chair Wars, and we were chatting with Tom about this too, that it seemed like there was some pressure in term political pressure in terms of why we saw the rate hike just to kind of defend the idea of Fed independence. Um, but what are you watching now in terms of the next piece? Cuz to your point, when we saw Bessant come out and say, "Hey, look, we're going to be doing these bond buybacks." That was the huge green candle that we got. Uh >> and so what do you think might be the implications of a repeat of that? >> Yeah. Um November 2nd might be the fourth. I need to double check my date, but that is the next quarterly quarterly refunding announcement from the Treasury. that is the publication in which they detail their financing needs and what they're going to issue to finance the government. And based off of what we've seen play out over the past couple of months, what we have heard from the Treasury over the past couple of months, I think that there is a possibility that they either reduce forward-looking issuance of longerdated treasuries, you know, 10 to 30 year treasuries, or perhaps suspend issuance of them altogether. We'll have to see. But I think that if they do something along those lines, which would be in line with that concept of financial repression and that ongoing operation treasury twist, I think that would be a pretty explosive catalyst for Bitcoin and and by extension the the broader crypto complex here. So, put that on your radar. Yeah, I think it's it's good to have the dates on the radar and it's interesting to watch all this play out. But we are certainly in kind of a weird upside down now. Uh which is almost, you know, it's like when you when you're right about something, it's kind of scary to be right sometimes, but it seems like all of Bitcoin is having this moment right now. All the Bitcoiners are like, "Wait a minute, this might be happening." Uh so it's a really weird feeling, but um but maybe we leave it there. Sean, any any parting words from you as we wrap up here? Um, any parting words? I think that uh, look, if we're right, if if the data we're looking at is right and I'm correct about, you know, myself and other bulls are correct about us entering a a regime shift, you know, if if you feel like you've missed out over the past couple of months on this this rally off the lows, I would not become too despondent, right? I would just start to get involved here. Look for spots to get involved. And you know, I I I think if uh this is a the truly truly the start of a new cycle, which I think it is, you know, there's going to be a lot of opportunities to to make money to to be alongside. And so, um yeah, all good things. >> All good things. Uh a good way to wrap it up and and we'll see if these discussions, you know, what we never do is we never back test what happens after we have you on. We have you on red days, but then what we need to do is project the forward uh implications of what a Sean Ferrell appearance does. >> I like that. We should do that. [laughter] >> Yes. We'll leave it there for now, but as always, Sean, can't thank you enough for coming on uh to chat. >> Yeah, thanks for having me, Zach. >> All right, there we go. Uh one of the top analysts certainly on Coinage whenever we have guests on. Love chatting with Sean, but one of the top analysts in the entire crypto space there, the head of digital asset strategy at Funstrap, Sean Ferrell. That's going to do it for us this time. As always, you can head to coinage media to catch up on all the big interviews around the world of TRFI and crypto. Uh, and if you haven't yet, subscribe to the YouTube channel and our substack as well. For Sean, for myself, for everybody here at Coin Edge. Appreciate you tuning in again and we'll see you hopefully soon.

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