WTF with Iran now....

We have updates out of the Iran situation. Here's everything that's happened within the last 12 hours that have followed Donald Trump's speech at the United Nations General Assembly yesterday. First of all, the person who was at the United States General Assembly yesterday representing Iran was not the president. That was my mistake for saying that. But today, the president did actually speak. And so, let's break down exactly what has happened. First, the United States has provided a complete proposal to the Iranians that is now being reviewed by the capital in Iran. The problem is the stock market is not very patient and neither is the bond market. And this is not to pitch it. There's nothing to sell in this video, but this morning in our alpha report, I'm just sharing this with you transparently. We said, "Look, yesterday was the UNGA meeting from Donald Trump or the speech from Donald Trump. The general assembly is going to keep going on until Monday, but markets are really impatient. They're going to go, "Well, Trump talked yesterday. Where's the deal?" And everybody's going to be freaking out looking for a deal and they're going to go, "There's no deal. Okay, sell." And then all of a sudden the stock market goes down and yields go up and oil goes up. Which unfortunately is exactly what's been happening. You've got Brent Oil at 102. We did have reports that potentially a tanker got struck by uh rocket fire or drone fire or both from the IRGC this morning. And this has a lot of people going, "Oh my gosh, this must mean a deal is dead in the water." Quite literally dead in the water. Uh so you've got oil up and then you've got bonds now up 11.6 basis points, which is insane. We're almost at 5.1 on the 10-year Treasury. not only a 19-year high, but like it's about to be an even more high. We're about to be at a 20-year high. It's crazy. In my opinion, there is good news coming, but unfortunately, patience is required. And that's what we talked about this morning. I said, honestly, you're probably going to get a buy the dip opportunity Friday, Monday, between now and Friday and Monday. So, so patiently buy the dip. But there's a dip coming, especially after we hit all-time highs yesterday. So, what do we have? Here's what we have right now. We've got the proposal in the hands of the Iranians. Markets are going to be impatient until a deal is actually finalized, which I think will be very bullish. It's just short term. You go through a little lull. Marco Rubio says it's possible that a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia could also be struck at the same time as a deal with Iran. But the ceasefire with Ukraine and Russia would be uh isolated to just grain and energy exports to try to prevent the need for a diesel export ban in the United States, which potentially increases inflation around the rest of the world, which then ends up getting imported over here, especially when we trade with deficit nations, which Donald Trump is always so upset about. Basically bad. Okay. But if you could get to some form of grain and energy export piece and you get a deal with Iran, we obviously expect energy prices to come down. Now, Marco Rubio on Iran this morning says that talks were largely an exchange of ideas and messages and the United States concepts of a plan uh have been sent to the Iranians back in Thran. They obviously have a delegation here in the United States, but let's be real, we all know who's driving the boat here, and it's the Ayatollah. Now, physically, the IRGC is running or driving the boat, and this creates some of the problems. This is why Iran has been so resilient, and a lot of people forget this. When we think of the United States, we think of a very central Oops, that was the back of the whiteboard. I probably won't be able to get that off, but that's okay. Um, when when we think of the United States, we think uh Donald Trump and then we think branches of power. So, the head of the Department of War uh and then you have the chiefs of staffs. So, you have the, you know, the chief of let's say uh Sentcom. uh and then that branches out to the various different branches of you know the military, the navy, whatever or they've got their chiefs and all that. You have this very structured government flow. This is very normal. This is what we think of especially as Americans. We're biased to that sort of understanding. In Iran, you kind of have uh the supreme uh leader uh up here at the top, sort of the final say on everything. uh but then below you kind of have various different aspects. So you have uh the leader of uh parliament, you have the president, uh then you have the IRGC. But the IRGC is not just one thing. It's kind of like you sort of have to think about it like IRGC groups. So I think about it like IRGC sub 1, IRGC sub 2, IRGC sub3. And that's because they purposefully operate in sort of this spiderweb uh uh ideology in Iran. And the idea is that each of these spiderw webs has the ability to independently launch attacks against ships in the straight of Hormuz or against Jordan uh you know US bases in Jordan or Saudi Arabia or you know the Houthies are really just sort of an extension of this spiderweb. Uh the Houthies and and Hezbollah would really just be other little spiderwebs out here or Hamas is another example of that. The problem and this is what Israel faces with like Hamas is you know they might be able to take off one splinter cell but you have like 40 splinter cells in Palestine Palestine that you're dealing with. So so this is quite problematic. Uh the commercial ship by the way oh here we go. Oman's maritime security center says it evacuated the crew of a commercial ship after the attack on the ship and one member of the crew was killed due to the attack. That literally just came in seconds ago by the way. And the reason I brought that up at the beginning of the segment too was we think of like well how how is it possible that negotiations are going on with Donald Trump and the White House over here if you know one of these splinter cells is still attacking ships in Hormuz. Well that's because Iran is also very unique in that they have this very wide spectrum of uh desires here. So you have I would argue most of the people are probably going to be on the more dovish side but then you have uh portions of the Iranian government that are extremely hawkish and the IRGC generally sits over here but even within the IRGC you have extremes in terms of the war really strong war hawks and then the ones who are more you know peacriven if you will if that's even something you can relate to Iran. So that makes negotiating with Iran very complicated and this is how you can get these varying signals in my opinion that makes markets very nervous between today again as we reported in the alpha report this morning and I'm just sharing that with you. I'm not trying to sell you anything. I'm just sharing that with you transparently because I know people are like it you know how how could you be bullish about a deal but then right now you're bearish because things change on a day-by-day basis to where my overall stitched narrative like if we just were very clear about this. I've been extremely bullish about the economy. Well, frankly, since uh ADP started recovering this summer and I've been bullish that we are hitting peak Iran pain uh early August, right? And that's roughly when we saw a peak Iran pain. Now, we're actually not seeing US responses to some of these occasional missile fires on commercial ships. the US is absorbing that in the um in their insurance plan for these commercial ships that are bypassing the straight of form moves because to me it actually seems like we're going in the right direction and negotiations. Rubio mentions that uh this morning there's an exchange of ideas and messages and that Iran clarified some of their conditions. The three conditions that we knew of already that were really the basis for everything like all these negotiations starting are endingos hostilities, lifting the blockade and returning sanctioned money. Those are the three core. Now, previously with a 14-point peace plan, there was, you know, $300 billion to Iran. There were a whole host of other obligations. Now, we believe that that three is actually seven privately. So, publicly they're talking about three. We believe seven is the real number of deal items that they're trying to negotiate in. One of the key items has been this idea that the United States needs to immediately leave the area. That's probably not going to happen. I think that was one of the things that has been dropped by the Iranian side. The Iranians did just come out and clarify that one of the things they want in addition to the lifting of the blockade is that the uh routes that have been established between IM Oman and Iran end up getting used as people end up transiting through Hormuz or ships. The reason they want that is because they want to feel like they have sovereignty in the region. They can not only track what's going on with shipping in the region but potentially also toll it so tax it. I have not seen from the US side the bearishness about Iran taxing it that I've seen months ago. Months ago, Donald Trump, it'll be free. No taxes. The only one who's going to tax it would be us. It's actually a great idea. You notice you haven't heard a single word of that from the United States delegation side. I feel like that's a good sign that there's some weakening on the US side as Donald Trump needs to get a win before the election. And then there's some weakening on the Iranian side as they're also giving up some items. Yesterday there were three-hour talks. Today we had two-hour talks, clarifications, deeper talks. This isn't going to happen quickly. Give it a week is my guess. Uh Trump though has clearly created leverage here with the blockade and to some extent since economic D-Day. remind uh or be reminded that the Iranian aircraft that leave Iran and go travel to other destinations or airports uh subject potentially those countries to being banished from the US dollar system if they refuel or service Iranianbased planes. So any Iranian based or or flagged plane is going to start having issues starting tonight at midnight. So we're actually ratcheting up in my opinion towards pressuring into a negotiated resolution. This is where we uh we also saw some softness though a lot of hardness from the Iranian president's speech today. I thought this was interesting. You had uh Joey Hood, a former US ambassador to Tunasia, suggests that this meeting or this presentation from Iran from the president was uh basically a lost opportunity that they could have come with some kind something new or some kind of bold proposal. But I actually think what's happening is Donald Trump and Iran, they negotiate publicly as bullies. Trump says, "We're gonna annihilate you." The Iranian president says, "We won't be bullied. Uh, we are not going to bend the knee. We're the ones being hit." They literally say, "We've been the victims of terrorism." Uh, we don't hit civilian populations. That is a direct assault on the United States accidentally hitting a school and killing 123 Iranian children, accidentally hitting a wedding when they were trying to hit a cell tower. Uh, you know, those are failures on the US part. And in fairness, the Iranians get to use that as propaganda. Uh the Iranians reiterating that they have a right to peaceful nuclear technology uh and that they agree not to have nuclear weapons. We've heard that a million times before. That's that's old news. But they basically say, why is it that Israel has nuclear weapons and they don't end up having UN weapons inspections, but we do. So they're sort of bringing that sort of fairness argument to the stage. They say we will never bow our head or bend the knee. This is uh Iran's point of view here. So the Iran meeting uh so far is being pitched as positive by Marco Rubio but not yet a breakthrough. That discussions are continuing but that it will take time and a lot of hard work. This is now the Trump administration saying guys like be patient. I agree with that. I mean even before the market got nervous and started selling off. My opinion is that this isn't something you could expect on the first day of the UN General Assembly to walk up where Trump walks up on the sidelines, shakes hands, and goes, "All right, we got a deal." You know, they actually have to build a real framework here. But this is probably better than the framework that was built, you know, through mediators between Pakistan and Oman uh in the Middle East because now you're actually meeting directly and in person. the United States delegators, delegation members with Qatari mediators and Iranians meeting in person in New York to hash this out. To me, I'm I'm optimistic. Even though I recognize it feels like loudly, oh, it's not happening and there's depression or status. I see it as a short-term buy the dip opportunity that actually might get worse between now and when the deal is announced. So, this weekend could be a catalyst where a deal gets announced or maybe even uh next week like Monday or Tuesday, which means you might end up seeing your worst Friday or Monday. You know, that's sort of my forecast. That's what I'm looking at. Uh so, you know, in fairness, it does also come across so like, hey, well, if strikes are still happening on ships, like does that actually make it seem like they want a deal? Oftent times, strikes happen right before negotiated deals are announced just to kind of push the other side over the edge. Like, just stop. All right, fine. will agree, right? This is why you got Trump being so aggressive yesterday and the president being so aggressive uh regarding Iran. Uh Witkoff mentions that the debates are lengthy and that they're continuing work. Uh and uh overall, at least what I'm hearing here is there's progress being made, which is good. That's what we're seeing on every level. anytime we get a newswire feed update, that's what we're seeing uh from Rubio, from Witoff, from the White House, that's what we're seeing from scoops, whether it's from Axios or otherwise, that's good. Again, it ain't done. There's work to be done. I'm still optimistic, but this gives you a good catchup of everything that's taken place really in the last 12 hours. It's worth noting that the nuclear issue, the president also said, won't be solved on the battlefield. I did actually think that was a softening of a stance as well because to me that indicates that hey we need to solve this by talking and negotiating. And in fairness that somewhat implies that they recognize they're going to have to make some concessions on their nuclear program. Maybe I'm just looking at this all through rosecolored glasses. I I don't think I am. I think I'm looking at this relatively reasonably. But may maybe I'm wrong. I mean every deal that's been struck before so far has fallen apart. A lot of that though, I mean, we had a good JCPOA going. You know, Donald Trump dunked on it and then withdrew from it without having a replacement plan. Obviously, that was stupid. You know, that was really dumb. Uh, so here we are basically renegotiating JCPOA 2.0, but whatever. Whether it's better or worse, that'll be all for Monday morning quarterbacking. The idea now is Trump knows he needs a deal before the election because otherwise they're absolutely going to get slaughtered. Uh and by default they're already going to get slaughtered. I mean if you look at Sockgen Sockjen's opinion or I guess their research here indicates that uh the president who's currently in power tends to lose seats in the house and lose control of the house every single time going back to World War II with the exception of 1998 and 2002. That's it. The president always loses the house in midterms essentially. And uh my opinion is there will be a Democratic landslide, a blue wave if they don't have a deal with Iran by them, whereas they actually have a chance at maintaining control, the Republicans do. Uh if a deal is struck with Iran. So Donald Trump knows this is existential uh for for party power. Uh, and as a result, I maintain my optimism and we know that Trump is the kind of like even if the deal sucks, he will brand it as the greatest win possible and the stock market will skyrocket on it. Oil prices will come down and then hopefully we could finally start seeing yields come down which because I mean in fairness right now this is rough. You know this actually hurts artificial intelligence and the buildout as well. I mean, we're up 12 basis points right now, and it just keeps going higher. The yield curve is pretty flat. But the 2-year is also up 11.4. It's like, oh my gosh, this is crazy. Bonds are getting smoked right now. But that's okay. Uh fingers crossed, maintain my optimism, but I recognize it's not going to be straight up, especially since we went straight up from my buy the dip at 700 on QQQ. And you know, then we hit alltime highs were like 748 or 749. That's crazy. Uh, you would expect some give back. So, I think that's reasonable. If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.