Meta's analyst consensus is a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it as a sell.
Contexto
On the valuation front, if you give it a conservative EPS growth rate of 15%, which is below its 10-year average of 22%, Meta is trading at above its fair value. Meanwhile, Meta's analyst consensus is a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it as a sell.
you're simply buying a wide moat company while waiting for that bet to settle.
Contexto
In short, Microsoft is a great business. However, its AI-spending question is genuinely unresolved. With the stock trading at right around fair value, you're not buying a steal here. Instead, you're simply buying a wide moat company while waiting for that bet to settle.
The consensus is still a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it a sell.
Contexto
If we assume that it is going to continue to grow its EPS at its 10-year rate of 13.5%, S&P Global is still trading at above its fair value. So it's not really a bargain right now. That said, the analysts are a lot more upbeat. The consensus is still a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it a sell.
this stock is rated as a Strong Buy, with an average price target of around USD 141.
Contexto
If you used a very conservative 20% EPS growth rate, which is far below its historical growth rate, the stock is still trading 10% below its fair value. And when it comes to analyst consensus, this stock is rated as a Strong Buy, with an average price target of around USD 141.
this stock is rated as a Strong Buy, zero sells, and has an average price target of around USD 645.
Contexto
So is the stock cheap now? If we were to use its 10-year EPS growth rate of 17.2%, Mastercard would still appear to be trading above its fair value. As for analyst consensus, this stock is rated as a Strong Buy, zero sells, and has an average price target of around USD 645.
Transcrição Completa
5 of the highest-quality businesses in the US just
beat their earnings, and every single one of them is rated a Strong Buy by Wall Street. And yet,
all of them are down from their all-time highs. In this video, I'll break down all 5 of these
companies, what's causing them to sell off, and why I think the market is wrong. So let's
not waste any time and let's jump right in. First up is Meta. Meta's stock is down about
6% from its high. And the reason? There are fears that Meta is spending so much on AI
that it could turn their cash flow negative. So when Meta first raised their 2026 capex
guidance to between USD 125 and USD 145 billion, which was roughly double
what they spent last year, the stock dropped by 6%. Then later on,
there were also reports that Meta might sell tens of billions of dollars in stock
to help fund all that AI infrastructure, which meant more stock dilution, and of
course, the stock dropped by another 6%. But when you look at the actual numbers,
Meta is actually doing quite well. In Q1, Meta's revenue grew 33% year over year. That was
the fastest growth since 2021, plus it also beat expectations. Operating profit grew about
30% alongside it. And on the bottom line, if we exclude the one-time USD 8 billion tax
benefit, Meta's earnings also grew by about 14%. In fact, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has also said
that nobody is using AI better than Meta. Not Google, not OpenAI, not even his own company.
It's Meta. That's because AI has completely changed the way Meta recommends ads, and
it's already showing up in the earnings. Meta's ad impressions were up 19%,
and the price per ad was up 12%. So not only is Meta showing more ads,
it's also charging more for each one. That tells us Meta isn't just
doing well. It's also speeding up. But despite all that, JPMorgan still downgraded
Meta to Neutral and projects that its free cash flow is going to drop to negative USD 4 billion
in 2026 and then negative USD 24 billion in 2027, with capex climbing to roughly USD 202 billion. Their argument is that with about 97% of
Meta's revenue still coming from advertising, there's no clear proof that all that
AI spending is helping the ad business. And that's the problem. While companies like
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all have a separate cloud and AI business you can actually track,
Meta has no separate AI line like that. Instead, it's all lumped under advertising, so you can't
really tell how much of that growth is the AI paying off versus how much of that is just due
to a strong ad market. So investors are uncertain whether all that investment can really pay back
enough to justify the hit to their cash flow. On the valuation front, if you give it
a conservative EPS growth rate of 15%, which is below its 10-year average of 22%,
Meta is trading at above its fair value. Meanwhile, Meta's analyst consensus is
a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it as a sell. And it sits at an
average price target of around USD 822, which, if it were to come true, would imply that Meta
has one of the biggest upsides on the whole list. In short, Meta is among the cheapest
of the Magnificent 7, while growing the fastest out of the whole group. It
got sold off because people got scared of all that future spending. But whether
that AI bill will ever pay for itself, we'll just have to wait and see.
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started. Alright, now back to the video. Next up, we have Microsoft. Microsoft is probably
the company with the widest moat on the entire list. And yet it's still down about 20% from its
high, on the same fears all over again. Basically, investors are worried that Microsoft will never
earn back all the money that it's pouring into AI. On top of that, a big chunk of Microsoft's
cloud growth now leans on a single partner, OpenAI. According to estimates, nearly
half of Microsoft's USD 625 billion revenue backlog is tied to OpenAI
alone. So if OpenAI ever stumbles, a huge slice of Microsoft's future
revenue will go down along with it. But despite all those fears, Microsoft's
financials are still strong. In the latest earnings, Microsoft's revenue grew
18%, while beating expectations. Net income grew 23%, and earnings per
share grew 23% right alongside it. Meanwhile, Azure, their cloud business, grew 40%, which was even faster than they'd predicted. More
than 20 million people are now paying for Copilot, their AI assistant. And the best part?
Many of these are big companies that are locked into 3 to 5 year contracts, so
that revenue will keep coming in for years. Microsoft's bull case is simple. Azure
is the second-biggest cloud in the world. And because every single company that's
chasing AI needs somewhere to run it, a lot of that demand is going to land on Azure.
So the bigger AI gets, the more Azure grows. If we assume that Microsoft can keep growing
its EPS at 15% a year over the next decade, which is roughly in line with the past 3 years,
then it's trading above its fair value. Though, the analysts are far more bullish. Right now,
they are rating Microsoft as a Strong Buy, with an average price target of around USD 560. In short, Microsoft is a great business. However,
its AI-spending question is genuinely unresolved. With the stock trading at right around fair
value, you're not buying a steal here. Instead, you're simply buying a wide moat company
while waiting for that bet to settle. The third company on the list is S&P Global.
After hitting its all-time high earlier this year, S&P Global has dropped by about 10%. So what
caused the drop? It all started in February, when S&P Global put out a 2026 earnings
forecast that came in weaker than expected. Then there's the worry about where
its future growth could come from. That's because about a third of S&P Global's
revenue comes from rating company debt for a fee. And what's happening is that a wave of
corporate debt was going to be due in 2025 and 2026. Because of that, over the past 2 years,
companies were rushing to refinance it early, while borrowing costs were still low. As
a result, a lot of their future borrowing was pulled forward. And all that could lead
to slower borrowing in the near future. So if there are fewer new bonds for S&P Global to
rate, there would be fewer fees for it to earn. However, the bigger worry is the whole AI
thing again. Around 35% of S&P's revenue comes from selling financial data and
analytics, basically S&P Global's own version of the Bloomberg terminal. But
with AI tools, customers can now get those same answers for cheaper, which
could eat into S&P Global's business. So those are the 2 fears hanging
over S&P Global. However when you look at the actual numbers, both of those
segments are still holding up just fine. In Q1, revenue grew 10%, and the bottom line
grew even faster, with earnings per share up 32%. Then on the ratings side, which had the whole
debt-slowdown fear, the business actually grew 13%, driven significantly by the AI-infrastructure
debt that's getting raised right now. As for the data side, which was supposed
to be getting eaten alive by AI, it still grew 8%, with its
core data products up 11%. Not only that, S&P Global is confident to
keep their full year guidance unchanged. So neither scary story is showing
up in the results just yet. And it all comes down to the strong moat that it
has in each of its business segments. Its ratings arm is a duopoly with Moody's, where together
they cover around 80% of the world's rated debt, and because of the way the industry is
regulated, no new player can really break in. Then there's the data business, which the whole
industry runs on and rarely switches away from. And it even owns the S&P 500 together with many
other indexes. So when you put it all together, you get a company that sits right at
the center of the financial system, while taking a small cut of almost
everything that flows through it. If we assume that it is going to continue to
grow its EPS at its 10-year rate of 13.5%, S&P Global is still trading at above its fair
value. So it's not really a bargain right now. That said, the analysts are a lot more
upbeat. The consensus is still a Strong Buy, with not a single one of them rating it a
sell. And with their average price target sitting around USD 510, it would imply that
there's upside from where it trades today. In short, this is one of the
cleanest compounders on the list. And despite all the market
fears, it's still growing well. Next up, ServiceNow. Since its all-time
high, ServiceNow has crashed nearly 30%, making it the biggest drop on the whole list. And all this was caused by 2
things. The first is again, AI. The idea is that AI agents can
now do the work people used to do, so companies won't need to buy as many
software seats for their staff. And since ServiceNow charges per seat, fewer seats
would mean a direct hit to its revenue. And second, US government agencies
are big customers of ServiceNow. So when DOGE started slashing federal
software contracts in early 2026, ServiceNow's government business slowed sharply,
after growing around 30% the year before. However, the good news is that the
federal weakness looks short-lived. ServiceNow has just signed a
deal with the US government's own procurement agency to roll its
AI out across federal departments. In the meantime, its latest quarter looked
strong. ServiceNow still grew its revenue by 22%, with subscriptions up 22%, and their
committed future revenue up around 22% as well. Their adjusted earnings came
in well ahead of expectations, with an operating margin of around 32%. Not only that, they also raised their
full-year subscription guidance. So even with that federal hit dragging on one
side, the commercial side of the business was strong enough to more than make up for it.
With 85% of the Fortune 500 as their customers, and a renewal rate around 97%, this is
clearly not a business that's falling apart. Not just that, the company is also
actively fighting the seat-death story. Rather than charging per seat, they
are now shifting towards usage-based pricing. This means a growing share of their new
business isn't tied to seat counts at all. The insider signal is loud too. ServiceNow's
CEO Bill McDermott just bought about USD 3 million of stock at around USD 104.60 back
in February, and he called the stock a once-in-a-generation opportunity, while executives
were cancelling their scheduled selling plans. However with that being said, there are some
genuine signs of growth slowing. ServiceNow's committed-revenue guidance has eased from
about 21% to 19.5%, and the full-year raise was credited almost entirely to an acquisition,
with the organic guidance holding flat. So even if the company is nowhere near dying,
its growth does seem to be normalizing. If you used a very conservative 20%
EPS growth rate, which is far below its historical growth rate, the stock is
still trading 10% below its fair value. And when it comes to analyst consensus,
this stock is rated as a Strong Buy, with an average price target of around USD 141. In short, ServiceNow is one of the
best software companies out there, and it got cut in half due to fears of AI
and shrinking government budgets. However, it just beat and raised its guidance,
the CEO is putting his own money in, and the AI shift that's supposed to
kill it ends up actually helping it. Last but not least, we have Mastercard. It's
basically a toll booth on global spending. So what happened here is that Visa, Mastercard,
and American Express all got caught in the same selloff. The fear is that in the future, AI
shopping agents could start routing payments through stablecoin rails that cost a fraction of
a cent, and skip the 2 to 3% card fee entirely. However, here's why I think the fear might
be overblown. According to Chainalysis, the credible timeline for stablecoins to actually overtake card volume is somewhere
around 2031 to 2039, and not 2026. That's because stablecoins still don't
have fraud protection, chargebacks, or rewards. Plus they're not accepted
almost everywhere the way cards are. At the same time, Mastercard isn't sitting still
either. They just bought a stablecoin company called BVNK for around USD 1.8 billion back in
March, and just recently they have also expanded their network to settle card payments directly in
stablecoins like USDC and Ripple's RLUSD. So in reality, they're already buying their way onto the
exact rail that people think will replace them. Meanwhile, Mastercard's business is accelerating
too. In Q1, Mastercard's revenue grew nearly 16%, with net income up 18%. Earnings per
share grew faster than profit there because Mastercard is constantly buying back
its own stock. Plus, its cross-border volume, which is the high-margin travel-and-spending part,
was up 13%, while value-added services grew 22%. So is the stock cheap now? If we were to
use its 10-year EPS growth rate of 17.2%, Mastercard would still appear to
be trading above its fair value. As for analyst consensus, this
stock is rated as a Strong Buy, zero sells, and has an average
price target of around USD 645. In short, Mastercard is a business
that prints money on every swipe, and has sold off over a disruption
fear that's almost a decade out. Anyway, that's all for this video.
Hope you found it useful. Like, share, and subscribe as I'll be
posting new videos every week.
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