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I Copied Nancy Pelosi's Trades for 7 Years (Surprising Results)

I Copied Nancy Pelosi's Trades for 7 Years (Surprising Results)

Bald Investor
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Recomendações

Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.

  1. 01 AMZN NASDAQ COMPRAR +18,97%
    Entrada $232,11 25 jul 2026
    Atual $276,14 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$44,03

    buying Amazon and Meta

    Contexto First transactions are buying Amazon and Meta.

  2. 02 META NASDAQ COMPRAR -0,38%
    Entrada $595,19 25 jul 2026
    Atual $592,90 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$2,29

    buying Amazon and Meta

    Contexto First transactions are buying Amazon and Meta.

  3. 03 AAPL NASDAQ COMPRAR -6,19%
    Entrada $333,02 25 jul 2026
    Atual $312,41 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$20,61

    Apple is added

    Contexto 1 month later, Apple is added and finally AT&T.

  4. 04 T NYSE COMPRAR -1,74%
    Entrada $24,13 25 jul 2026
    Atual $23,71 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$0,42

    finally AT&T

    Contexto 1 month later, Apple is added and finally AT&T.

  5. 05 CRM NYSE COMPRAR +17,56%
    Entrada $163,66 25 jul 2026
    Atual $192,40 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$28,74

    Salesforce and Netflix get added

    Contexto 2019 is a quiet year. Salesforce and Netflix get added while Amazon and Apple quietly shrink to make room for them.

  6. 06 NFLX NASDAQ COMPRAR +5,76%
    Entrada $70,09 25 jul 2026
    Atual $74,13 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$4,04

    Salesforce and Netflix get added

    Contexto 2019 is a quiet year. Salesforce and Netflix get added while Amazon and Apple quietly shrink to make room for them.

  7. 07 V NYSE VENDER -3,01%
    Entrada $355,74 25 jul 2026
    Atual $366,43 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$10,69

    selling Visa twice

    Contexto Pelosi also discloses selling Visa twice, but since this account never owned Visa in the first place, those trades simply do nothing here.

  8. 08 MSFT NASDAQ COMPRAR +31,77%
    Entrada $381,70 25 jul 2026
    Atual $502,97 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$121,27

    Microsoft, Alphabet, and Slack all enter for the first time in April

    Contexto 2020 is where it is gets interesting. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Slack all enter for the first time in April.

  9. 09 GOOGL NASDAQ COMPRAR +10,90%
    Entrada $319,74 25 jul 2026
    Atual $354,59 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$34,85

    Microsoft, Alphabet, and Slack all enter for the first time in April

    Contexto 2020 is where it is gets interesting. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Slack all enter for the first time in April.

  10. 10 META NASDAQ VENDER +0,38%
    Entrada $595,19 25 jul 2026
    Atual $592,90 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$2,29

    Meta gets sold off completely and never returns

    Contexto Then in June, Meta gets sold off completely and never returns.

  11. 11 PYPL NASDAQ COMPRAR +6,66%
    Entrada $56,15 25 jul 2026
    Atual $59,89 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$3,74

    PayPal, which was added in July

    Contexto The portfolio is getting more and more complicated. Amazon makes up 39.5%, Netflix 19.8%, Salesforce 18.4%, Microsoft 6%, and PayPal, which was added in July, is at 5.2%.

  12. 12 DIS NYSE COMPRAR +10,35%
    Entrada $94,85 25 jul 2026
    Atual $104,67 06 ago 2026
    Resultado +$9,82

    Tesla and Disney join in January

    Contexto Tesla and Disney join in January. Microsoft gets a massive ad in April and in July Nvidia shows up for the first time.

  13. 13 MSFT NASDAQ COMPRAR +31,77%
    Entrada $381,70 25 jul 2026
    Atual $502,97 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$121,27

    Microsoft gets a massive ad in April

    Contexto Tesla and Disney join in January. Microsoft gets a massive ad in April and in July Nvidia shows up for the first time.

  14. 14 NVDA NASDAQ COMPRAR +8,19%
    Entrada $206,84 25 jul 2026
    Atual $223,78 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$16,94

    in July Nvidia shows up for the first time

    Contexto Tesla and Disney join in January. Microsoft gets a massive ad in April and in July Nvidia shows up for the first time.

  15. 15 AAPL NASDAQ COMPRAR -6,19%
    Entrada $333,02 25 jul 2026
    Atual $312,41 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$20,61

    the big Apple and Disney buys in February and March

    Contexto Not only is it going down because of the price drops, but also the big Apple and Disney buys in February and March turn out to be badly timed.

  16. 16 DIS NYSE COMPRAR +10,35%
    Entrada $94,85 25 jul 2026
    Atual $104,67 06 ago 2026
    Resultado +$9,82

    the big Apple and Disney buys in February and March

    Contexto Not only is it going down because of the price drops, but also the big Apple and Disney buys in February and March turn out to be badly timed.

  17. 17 NVDA NASDAQ VENDER -8,19%
    Entrada $206,84 25 jul 2026
    Atual $223,78 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$16,94

    Nvidia gets cut hard in October

    Contexto Then Nvidia gets cut hard in October.

  18. 18 DIS NYSE VENDER -10,35%
    Entrada $94,85 25 jul 2026
    Atual $104,67 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$9,82

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  19. 19 AB NYSE VENDER +0,19%
    Entrada $37,20 25 jul 2026
    Atual $37,13 06 ago 2026
    Resultado +$0,07

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  20. 20 GOOGL NASDAQ VENDER -10,90%
    Entrada $319,74 25 jul 2026
    Atual $354,59 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$34,85

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  21. 21 PYPL NASDAQ VENDER -6,66%
    Entrada $56,15 25 jul 2026
    Atual $59,89 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$3,74

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  22. 22 NFLX NASDAQ VENDER -5,76%
    Entrada $70,09 25 jul 2026
    Atual $74,13 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$4,04

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  23. 23 RBLX NYSE VENDER +22,67%
    Entrada $47,55 25 jul 2026
    Atual $36,77 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$10,78

    Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure

    Contexto January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure.

  24. 24 AAPL NASDAQ COMPRAR -6,19%
    Entrada $333,02 25 jul 2026
    Atual $312,41 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$20,61

    Apple gets rebuilt over the spring through three separate buys

    Contexto Apple gets rebuilt over the spring through three separate buys.

  25. 25 NVDA NASDAQ COMPRAR +8,19%
    Entrada $206,84 25 jul 2026
    Atual $223,78 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$16,94

    Nvidia gets its biggest single addition yet

    Contexto Then, in December, Nvidia gets its biggest single addition yet.

  26. 26 PANW NASDAQ COMPRAR +11,92%
    Entrada $323,79 25 jul 2026
    Atual $362,37 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$38,58

    Palo Alto Networks join in February

    Contexto Palo Alto Networks join in February.

  27. 27 NVDA NASDAQ COMPRAR +8,19%
    Entrada $206,84 25 jul 2026
    Atual $223,78 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$16,94

    load Nvidia up even further

    Contexto Then, in July, two big disclosures load Nvidia up even further and bring in a brand new position, Broadcom.

  28. 28 AVGO NASDAQ COMPRAR +10,77%
    Entrada $381,92 25 jul 2026
    Atual $423,05 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$41,13

    bring in a brand new position, Broadcom

    Contexto Then, in July, two big disclosures load Nvidia up even further and bring in a brand new position, Broadcom.

  29. 29 MSFT NASDAQ VENDER -31,77%
    Entrada $381,70 25 jul 2026
    Atual $502,97 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$121,27

    Microsoft gets sold down hard the same month

    Contexto Then, in July, two big disclosures load Nvidia up even further and bring in a brand new position, Broadcom. Well, Microsoft gets sold down hard the same month.

  30. 30 AAPL NASDAQ VENDER +6,19%
    Entrada $333,02 25 jul 2026
    Atual $312,41 06 ago 2026
    Resultado +$20,61

    selling Apple

    Contexto In January, Pelosi discloses selling Apple, the stock that was in the center of the entire experiment from day one, is now gone.

  31. 31 PANW NASDAQ COMPRAR +11,92%
    Entrada $323,79 25 jul 2026
    Atual $362,37 07 ago 2026
    Resultado +$38,58

    Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added

    Contexto The same month, Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added.

  32. 32 VST NYSE COMPRAR -12,95%
    Entrada $163,38 25 jul 2026
    Atual $142,23 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$21,15

    Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added

    Contexto The same month, Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added.

  33. 33 TEM NASDAQ COMPRAR +8,03%
    Entrada $42,69 25 jul 2026
    Atual $46,12 06 ago 2026
    Resultado +$3,43

    Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added

    Contexto The same month, Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added.

  34. 34 AB NYSE COMPRAR -0,19%
    Entrada $37,20 25 jul 2026
    Atual $37,13 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$0,07

    Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4%

    Contexto The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed.

  35. 35 DIS NYSE VENDER -10,35%
    Entrada $94,85 25 jul 2026
    Atual $104,67 06 ago 2026
    Resultado −$9,82

    Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed

    Contexto The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed.

  36. 36 GOOGL NASDAQ VENDER -10,90%
    Entrada $319,74 25 jul 2026
    Atual $354,59 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$34,85

    Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed

    Contexto The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed.

  37. 37 NVDA NASDAQ VENDER -8,19%
    Entrada $206,84 25 jul 2026
    Atual $223,78 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$16,94

    Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed

    Contexto The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed.

  38. 38 AMZN NASDAQ VENDER -18,97%
    Entrada $232,11 25 jul 2026
    Atual $276,14 07 ago 2026
    Resultado −$44,03

    Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed

    Contexto The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed.

Transcrição Completa
Every time Nancy Pelosi's trades go public, someone online says the same thing. Just copy it, you will get [music] rich. So, I tested the idea. I took every one of her disclosed trades since 2018, ran them against real market history, and the results aren't as obvious as you think. So, here is how it works. Every trade, every price, every date you are about to see comes from forecaster.biz and especially from their US politician's tracker, which lets you see every disclosed trade Pelosi ever made. We start by creating a $10,000 portfolio and from there, the rules are rather simple. We only react on a day a trade becomes public, never the day it actually happened because that's the earliest a real copycat investor could have known. We never add new money. So, every new buy means rebalancing the portfolio, selling a slice of everything else to fund it. So, let's start at the end of 2018. First transactions are buying Amazon and Meta. 1 month later, Apple is added and finally AT&T. So, that's our starting lineup. Amazon at 67.8% Apple at 22.6% AT&T at 5.7% and Meta at 4% and the account closes out the year at $9,636, down 3.6% from where we started. Mostly because Pelosi made her last 2018 buy right before the market's Q4 sell-off. Not exactly a dream start, but remember, this is only the beginning. 2019 is a quiet year. Salesforce and Netflix get added while Amazon and Apple quietly shrink to make room for them. And Pelosi also discloses selling Visa twice, but since this account never owned Visa in the first place, those trades simply do nothing here. The account ends the year at $9,884. Basically, flat. Over a year in and we are still below our starting $10,000. 2020 is where it is gets interesting. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Slack all enter for the first time in April. Then in June, Meta gets sold off completely and never returns. The portfolio is getting more and more complicated. Amazon makes up 39.5%, Netflix 19.8%, Salesforce 18.4%, Microsoft 6%, and PayPal, which was added in July, is at 5.2%. The account finishes the year at $12,287, up 24% in 12 months. First time we are meaningfully ahead of our starting point, but what is important to notice is that we are behind the S&P 500 almost all the time. Tesla and Disney join in January. Microsoft gets a massive ad in April and in July Nvidia shows up for the first time. The account closes 2021 at $16,015, up 30% on the year and up 60% since we started. The portfolio looks diversified for the first time, but trouble is coming. Let's go to forecaster and look where we are at in that time when it comes to our three biggest positions. Alphabet was at its peak and would fall into a dip that would last about two years with falling net income and free cash flow. Microsoft has a very similar story, but in this case sales, income and free cash flow look a little bit better. And finally, our biggest position, Amazon, the biggest dip of them all that would take over two years to recover. And in this case, net income and free cash flow got really hit badly. So, the drop was understandable. Okay, let's see how this affected our portfolio. Not only is it going down because of the price drops, but also the big Apple and Disney buys in February and March turn out to be badly timed. Then Nvidia gets cut hard in October. The account ends the year at $14,311, down nearly 11% from where it stood 12 months earlier. This is exactly the kind of year where blindly copying someone else's trades without any of our own research really tests our nerves. But, what is important is that we are basically equal to the S&P 500 results. Of course, we should remember that there is a massive difference between just buying an ETF and doing nothing to consistently checking Forecaster for new trades from Pelosi, then rebalancing the entire portfolio just to make it work. January starts with a cleanup. Tesla, Disney AllianceBernstein Alphabet, PayPal, Netflix, and Roblox all get trimmed in one disclosure. Apple gets rebuilt over the spring through three separate buys. Then, in December, Nvidia gets its biggest single addition yet. From 6.7% of the portfolio in January to 11.4% by the end of 2023. The account recovers to $16,729, up nearly 17% on the year. We are finally back above where we were at the end of 2021, 2 years later. But, we are still underperforming the S&P 500. That is not very encouraging and shows that even after over 5 years, cloning Pelosi is not the easy and fast way of getting rich. Palo Alto Networks join in February. Then, in July, two big disclosures load Nvidia up even further and bring in a brand new position, Broadcom. Well, Microsoft gets sold down hard the same month. By our last 2024 disclosure, the account sits at $20,409, up 22% on the year. Nvidia alone is now 19.3% of the entire portfolio. Then Apple at 12.3%, Alphabet 11.7%, Amazon 11.2%, and Disney closes the top five at 9.2% of the portfolio. This portfolio is not only performing similar to the S&P 500, but also its structure is similar. Let's just go to Forecaster to see that. If we choose rankings, indexes, and S&P 500, we get all the information we need. So, which stocks are in our portfolio? [clears throat] Nvidia? Yes. Alphabet? Yes. Apple Microsoft Amazon? Yes. Broadcom? Yes. Meta? No, we sold it in 2020. Tesla and Micron? Yes. So, nine out of 10 stocks. When we look at the structure of the entire S&P 500, it is mainly technology, just like our portfolio. Well, maybe Nancy Pelosi is even a bigger believer in new technologies. So, basically, we got mainly big tech and some other well-known companies. And even if her timing can be sometimes better than the average, the fact that we have to wait for her to disclose the moves destroys any benefit we could get from it. In January, Pelosi discloses selling Apple, the stock that was in the center of the entire experiment from day one, is now gone. The same month, Palo Alto Networks, Vistra, and a new name, Tempus AI, all get added. The account ends the year at $26,571, up 30% in 12 months, our best calendar year yet. And finally, after over 7 years, we are beating the market. The most recent disclosure from January 26th, 2026, is a busy one. Alliance Bernstein jumps from under 3% of the portfolio to 8.4% Disney, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon all get trimmed. Nvidia is still the single largest position at 14.5%, but it's clearly being spread thinner across the names now. Alphabet is at 10.6% Broadcom Incorporated is a third biggest position, also at 10.6% Then, Amazon 9.8% and Microsoft at 8.8% of the portfolio. And that brings us to today. The $10,000 account untouched by a single new deposit for over 7 years is worth $30,879. That is a total gain of 208.8% or about 16.5% a year. Here is the part that actually surprised me. For most of this experiment, this account was behind a simple S&P 500 index fund. We were losing to a broad index fund for years. It was really only Nvidia picked up in 2021 and built on aggressively through 2024 that pulled this whole experiment ahead. By January 2026, we finish at $30,879 versus the estimated $26,603 for the S&P 500. A real win, but one that only showed up in the final year of a 7-year experiment. So, is cloning Nancy Pelosi a good strategy? I don't think so. First of all, you have to constantly monitor the changes. It is also super hard to keep your conviction in a stock if you don't actually analyze it and just bought it because someone else did. And finally, every transaction you copy costs you fees. And yes, you could buy an ETF that copies her moves, which was created in 2023. So, at the very bottom of our portfolio. But even then, you would have to pay over 0.7% of your investment as fees. So, it is not even close to an S&P 500 ETF with fees of 0.03%. So, all in all, I would rather choose a low-cost ETF. And yes, the final difference between 16.5% and 14.2% per year is meaningful. But would you really keep on cloning her moves after 6 years of underperformance? To stay the course, we need conviction. We need to understand a company, and that is where our sponsor Forecaster fits perfectly. Their platform not only gives you a great amount of data, but also tools to use this data any way you want to. You can analyze everything yourself. You can use their AI agent to give you summaries of different aspects of any company. You can look at seasonality patterns or market mood. Any way you want to invest, Forecaster has you covered. And by clicking the link in the description and using code bold10 at the checkout, you can also get 10% off your subscription. So definitely check it out.

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