The Big 3: META, OKTA, GLD

back to trading 360. I'm Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks three charts and three trades for you. Rick Duquette will be taking us through the technicals as always here to take us through the trades today. Charles Moon stock strategist at Prosper Trading Academy. Charles great to have you back on. Now I always like to give credit where credit's due. And it's not from my show. But yesterday we were both a part of the morning trade on Morning Trade Live. I was previewing Palantir. You had a strangle trade that you proposed for Palantir. And I just want to give you a shout out because it is up almost four x this morning. So hats off to you for a strong trade there. What did you think of Palantir earnings. I mean we knew they were arguably going to be good, but they certainly feel even better than that. And the reaction this morning yeah they needed a catalyst to go up. And they certainly got it. The numbers were really strong. And you know for me it's always about valuation. And there's been a strong suppression of this stock in terms of upward trajectory. So the value was there. The news really helped supplemented the idea of risk on trading. Certainly today they broke through that key very critical threshold of that. 1381 40 that we had highlighted yesterday. And then they approached that 152 price, and that was kind of that make or break moment because, I believe it was since mid June that that was the last time they were above the 200 SMA. I believe it's somewhere around late January the 26th. I believe that it was the last time it closed above this threshold. So that was the key moment, early on this morning for the stock. And once it broke, it just really started racing. The retail traders, the short term traders are just taking advantage of the momentum. And so currently the price point in terms of, of pricing in the news is, is almost stretched a little too far. But this is where we've seen a lot of the markets really approaching and really attacking momentum trades in the near term. And that's really what I was looking for, is that there was going to be a reason to give the markets a to buy into the stock. And once it broke through that level, there was just great upside potential. Well, hats off to you because it was a well thought out trade that ended up performing exactly how you had hoped. But let's talk about meta because they could arguably also use a catalyst or people who want to buy in here based on their recent momentum. How are you looking at meta right now? So I actually love what meta is going to be looking to do, which is known as meta compute. Now that's the thing. They've guided that revenue. AD revenue in the future may slow down a bit. And that kind of really is what, stacked the stock lower. They didn't raise CapEx. They just raised their floor from 125 to 130 billion projected as high as, I believe, 140 billion. So the meta compute is going to be a variable for them to potentially offset that maybe slowdown ad revenue. But that's in the future, right. They're going to be certainly, starting from the ground floor and attacking the conglomerates like Google, but most notably AWS, which is the king of kings. And then, Azure, which isn't too far behind. Now. I, I love this rally in meta, but I think it's going to start struggling here at $600. And we have seen that when we've seen this demand in AI, that the hyperscalers tend to soften a bit. Now, we're not seeing that in Microsoft, today because they're performing pretty well. But if meta struggles at 600, I'm actually looking for a bit of a reversion play. I'm actually looking to buy a put a short term, put the August 14th, 555 strike targeting at 575 for an entry or lower. Now I'm going to be risking 60% because if they get through this, $600 price, there's no point in remaining short. But if it works out, these are going to easily exceed 200% gains because again, the drop will be pretty sharp. It'll probably end up closer to being at the money slightly, even in the money, before it starts to rebound. All right. So as we look at the technicals here, do any of those levels stand out to you. Well the first things that I see would be, you know, just the prevailing downside trend here, a sharper acceleration to the downside with blue here where we about where we've stopped recently. Today, we can also see that we stopped short of breaking through those 52 week lows near 520. We had a gap here that lines up with about 540. Another gap here near 566. So now we find ourselves kind of attempting to retake this level here near 580 upside levels to watch would include this gap near 614 to about 628 or so. If we were to think about our moving averages, then in the next case, we can see that we have a situation where our faster ones are below our slower ones here, suggesting downward momentum here. However, price did make a bullish sign here, which is that we've closed above our short term five day EMA in dark blue. That one comes in near 579 40 or so right now. So the longer term, the moving average, the more significant it is. But the shorter moving averages give you a faster read of potential trend change. So this could be an early signal here that things are starting to turn around. We also broke through our downward sloping trend line on our RSI indicator, our momentum indicator. We are still a bit short of that 50 mid line here. So that would be another bullish development if we were to close above that. Finally our volume profile shows the point of control. The heaviest trading area of all. Our thick red line here comes in near 606. So that area roughly about 600 to 615 would be a notable potential congestion area to the upside. All right. As we look at meta here down a little bit more than 11% so far year to date. This next name though performing really well here today we're talking about Okta managed to survive this massacre and didn't get dragged as much. A lot of the other names cyber sort of a bit more insulated. But take me through why Okta's in the big three today, Charles. You know, if you look at kind of the the leaders of the sector, which is CrowdStrike and Palo Alto, they've already tried to make this run today towards their 52 week highs. And this is where I think Okta is playing. Follow the leader. You're you're 100% correct. The cybersecurity sector has really held up. Well, there's been some symmetry with the, software as a service plays, but it's almost as if they're finding this kind of middle ground between the, you know, intermediate rallies in the software as a service. And of course, the, you know, follow up demand in the AI stocks. And, you know, we talk about steady. That's really what I've seen with these names. They haven't retraced too far off their 52 week highs. And I, as a short term trader, always look for what's known as profit pockets, where a stock has the ability of moving without much interference. And having that kind of trajectory really just be fairly smooth and fairly easy. And that's really what I'm anticipating here because Okta has really held firm, right around this. 138139 price for support in the near term. And as they're holding and seeing CrowdStrike in Palo Alto moving higher, I love the potential. It looks like a lot of risk on ahead of pretty key earnings for Cloudflare, which is ticker symbol net or Net and as well as Akamai. I think they're both reporting on the same day later this week. So, it is a pseudo play on those earnings. Now, Cloudflare doesn't typically do well, but, we could see the sector withstand. And again, if, if any T does surprise where they tend to not only beat but have good guidance and they go down, if they reverse that history, we're going to see the sector go really strong into the end of the week. So I'm looking at Okta, the 814, 150 strike at 475. I'd be risking about 50%. I believe that's fair value. They'll certainly, if it breaks down, break it below the key threshold and you're not going to want to be in. But if it does happen to anchor and hold, I believe that this is an easy 100% winner. And if it breaks out above the 52 week highs, we certainly could see the trend and see the extended gains, and we'll have time to be able to capitalize on it. All right Rick. So as we look at Okta, which doesn't have its earnings until the end of the month, what are you seeing here in the chart. Sure. So we had a big gap here 97 to 107. We tested that 107 level that corresponded with that initial low. So we held on there. Then we had a sharp rally here following an equally sharp decline. But we do seem for now to have overtaken that initial high near one. 42 A relative low comes in near about 134. We did have this one intraday spike below 130. So that could be worth watching as well if we do start to break lower. But for now the upside 157 is the point to watch. That's the high water mark here. So next if we think about our trajectory of our moving averages, next we can see that we have the opposite situation of our last chart. The faster ones are all above the slower ones. We are now holding on above our five day EMA in dark blue. 14228 is where that one comes in. Our lows of the day came in near our 21 day in teal representing one month. 13952 at this moment here, a little bit of bearish divergence on the RSI price made higher closing highs while the RSI was trending lower here. Not necessarily a head for the hills warning, but a sign that the pace of the gains could potentially be slowing down. So the next thing the Bulls would want to see would be a break above the trend line and a re entry into that overbought area, which is typically regarded as a sign of strength in a trending market. Finally, we can see that our volume profile study shows that we have a relatively small node here between about 135 to 144, roughly another pocket of activity here, 115 to 120 are the standout areas from this perspective. All right. As we look for Cloudflare and Akamai, both of those names report after the close today. So could be a mover for Okta. And as we look at your last one here, you've got the gold ETF. GLD. Take me through how you're looking at gold right now especially with oil prices down. Yeah. So this is kind of a little bit of a stretch beyond what I typically would ever look for. I specialize in momentum stocks and tech stocks. That's always kind of been my centralized focus. But looking at GLD and their performance it's very attractive. I'm a Chartist. I love basing pattern breakouts. And that's the key factor here. Gold was in a fairly and very strong sustained downtrend. Now when trends tend to stop they tend to either go sideways and up. In this instance, with stocks that are trending up, they'll stop at the highs and then start working down. And that's what we're really seeing right now. That has been holding strong and bouncing back between this like 363 80 range. Now there's several factors that could boost gold, right? Perhaps the yen intervention that we're seeing, you know, obviously we've seen, the BOJ, the Bank of Japan, already tried to intervene without much success. And now the United States have stepped in. And of course the other component is the market rally. We have seen that gold has coincided with a very bullish rally in the markets. And again I think these two factors could actually cause GLD to strengthen. If we start seeing the US dollar start to suppress and soften in the markets remain in a bullish state, this could actually start triggering that potential breakout, that breakout. My opinion is going to be right around 383. So for me the key price to watch is not the 383, but more likely the 362. As long as we remain above this level, I want to remain long GLD or long gold. So I want to give it a little bit of time. I'm going a little bit further out to the September 18th monthly contract. I would be looking at the 400 strike. I believe you could get it at 420 or lower. Now here's the thing. You're risking it all. This is where you're going to be willing to risk what you are purchasing, which is the premium price. Again, that's the key factor here. If this breaks out, I believe the upside is easily the 410, 420. Now if things get really crazy, certainly the dynamic of, you know, a breakout in this commodity is not out of the picture. We've seen it already this year. We could see it get into the range around 444 60. But for me, I think the absolute upside until September is going to be around 420. That would be the expected range. If it breaks out from that 383 price, it is definitely worth watching and is definitely worth taking the risk in my opinion. All right, so Chartist to Chartist. Rick, are you also looking at any potential moves towards 383? Well, certainly some interesting technical signs here to backtrack a little bit. 360 was where we had some repeated lows. That's around where we had our recent lows as well. And then here's roughly where that 380 level is. So we had a falling wedge type shape as the broader pattern. In the shorter term, we have more of this symmetrical triangular shape where our two boundary lines are converging toward each other, suggesting lower volatility, which is often the precursor to higher volatility when the breakout does happen. So a push above that 380 level would be pretty noteworthy here to the upside. When we look at our moving averages, we are starting to cross above the confluence of our two shortest ones. 373374 roughly is where those come in our five day and 21 day RSI also improving or on the verge of crossing above that 50 mid line, but still remaining below that. So look for that to happen as well for further bullishness. Finally, our volume profile shows that we are quite close to the point of control here. We can see that that is our thick red line heaviest trading area. If we were to start pushing above that 390 level or so, there's another node here near 395. Then things thin out pretty dramatically above that. All right but moving higher today for GLD we're up about 6/10 of 1%. Gold prices overall up about a percent on the session. Charles really appreciate you joining us today. And again bravo to you on that trade that triangle trade that you proposed yesterday on Palantir up about four times this