Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Contexto
Bill Aman added six brand new positions. And on the surface, they look unrelated. Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Contexto
Bill Aman added six brand new positions. And on the surface, they look unrelated. Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Contexto
Bill Aman added six brand new positions. And on the surface, they look unrelated. Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Contexto
Bill Aman added six brand new positions. And on the surface, they look unrelated. Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company.
Contexto
But the biggest pattern in this filing was actually around Sun's selling because he sold more stocks than he bought, completely exiting his position in 21 Capital, cutting his TSMC shares by 71% and selling 6% of SATA Logic, a satellite data company. But at first, this might look like he's just taking risk off the table...
the company also bought back $4.5 billion in their own stock, Berkshire Hathaway
Transcrição Completa
Well, it's finally time, 45 days after the quarter ends and the SEC releases the 13F filings. These filings show every trade the smartest investors in the stock market are making. So, let's look at reports for five top investors, many of whom have outperformed the market for decades. These aren't Twitter traders. These are long-term investors who have survived multiple market cycles. And in the last 90 days, they've made some serious changes. And even though they're not all moving in the same direction, their trades can tell us how they're preparing for what's coming next and what we can do as regular investors. And I'll also be writing the five lessons that I took away from their trades. But more on that later. Let's just start with what did they buy. First up, we have Persing Square founder Bill Aman. He is famous for running a concentrated portfolio. And when he sees a disconnect between value and price, he moves with conviction at scale. Like during the pandemic, he made $2.6 billion using just a $27 million hedge trade. Big swings aren't new for this guy when he thinks the market has mispriced something badly. And this quarter marks the biggest swings that he's taken in a while. Bill Aman added six brand new positions. And on the surface, they look unrelated. Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, well-known consumer brands, and Alcon Labs, an eyeare company. But they do have a common thread. These are all established businesses with recurring demand. Durable earnings in uncertain times at a reasonable price. But he also bought two very interesting positions. First was Intercontinental Exchange, the company that runs the New York Stock Exchange. And the second was S&P Global, the company that runs the S&P 500 index and the S&P credit rating agency. These are also reliable cash flowers, but you can also see them as the AI era toll roads of the future. See, Intercontinental Exchange has introduced an MCP connector, a way for AI agents to basically search and access their proprietary financial data. And with indexes like the S&P 500, there is a ton of valuable realtime data that you now cannot access without their say. So, we already know that Wall Street is willing to pay a lot of money for access to early information. So, as AI agents become more common in finance, this type of data payment is only going to become more common. And so, Aman may be buying the gatekeepers of that data as an indirect AI play that works regardless of which AI model becomes the biggest. And that would line up with the rest of his portfolio as well, which is heavily invested in AI. So, for his changes to existing positions, he first off completely sold the last of his $2 billion Google position, but he did not sell out of AI. He actually increased his Meta, Microsoft, and Uber positions while retaining a major Amazon position. And the holdings here are pretty massive. 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, 2.5, and roughly $2 billion in Amazon, even after selling around 25% of that position this quarter. That matters because while most headlines are focusing on Acan selling out of Google, his broader portfolio is now the majority made up of major AI tech companies. So my read this sale was not a criticism of Google strategy. It was about rotating to similar stocks that he thought were a better value with Aman even saying last quarter, "Our sale of Google was not a bet against the company. Instead, we used it as a source of funds for other AI stocks, which considering how much Google's price has run up this year compared to the rest of big tech does make sense. And this search for value in quickly growing industries also extends beyond tech for Aman. He added 14% to restaurant brands, the owner of Burger King, Popeye's, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs. This is not an exciting AI story, but it does tell us a lot about how Aman is picking his winners. In his latest letter to shareholders, he pointed out how this company was trading at 17 times earnings, a material discount to peers, and their view of intrinsic value. So, he bought a strong business in a growing industry with a good margin of safety on its value. Which gives us the first lesson for our notebook, which is that conviction is not permission to overpay. Aman is clearly very bullish on AI and growth stocks, but he's being careful to move his money where valuations are lower, and that gives him more room to be wrong when the market isn't already pricing in perfection. But if Aman is looking for growth at value prices, our next investor is on the far other side. Investing in unpopular, boring businesses that most of the market is completely ignoring. And as we'll see, every investor on this list has a specialty. But they also have something in common, which is that they make more money when they make better decisions. But how do you make better decisions? Well, years of practice, but also a 2025 study found that sleep deprivation leads to worse decisions and riskier overall decisions, which I guess explains Wall Street bets. So, I've tried to find ways to sleep better to improve my decisions, and this video sponsor Fit Nexa has helped with that. Fit Nexa's Somni Pods 3 are&c earbuds designed for overnight wear. Each earbud is less than 9.9 millimeters at its thickest point with a lowprofile shape designed for side sleeping and their adaptive ear canal calibration is designed to adjust the ANC as you move around in your sleep and change pillow pressure. And if you link their app, you can get up to 12 hours of sleep mode without any connection to the internet for offline white noise, rain, ocean sounds, or just ANC silence. No need for a separate subscription or connection. And you can track your sleep all in one place. or I really appreciate there's a private alarm that plays directly through the earbuds. So if you're sharing a room, you're not the only one who can sleep better. They also fit really nicely into your ears with 40 possible fit combinations between these ear wings and ear tips. So you can make sure they don't have any pressure points if you move around a lot in your sleep like I tend to. I found myself just using them as everyday earbuds because I liked how light they were to wear. So, if nighttime noise is one of the things keeping your brain from resting, it's worth trying out the Fit Nexa Somnipods 3 using the link below. So, thank you to Fit Nexa for sponsoring this video and supporting the channel. We can only make videos like this with the support of our sponsors. So, check them out using the link below. And now, let's look at our next investor who is the king of investing in boring, unpopular companies. So, Monry is playing a totally different game from Bill Aman's big tech bets. Pabry has studied Warren Buffett strategy for decades, finding overlooked businesses, waiting for the right price, and when he finds one, betting big. And you can definitely see that reflected in this filing. He is super concentrated. He has just four total positions really in just two industries, coal and offshore drilling with a tiny new position in fintech. And these are just classic pabry bets because you can see in this chart of coal demand, it's been dropping in advanced countries since 2008. So when Wall Street investors are looking for the next big thing, coal is probably not going to make the list. But if we zoom out a bit, the story does change. This is a chart of total coal capacity over time. And you can see that while its growth has slowed, it's still increasing overall with demand rising especially quickly in markets like Asia. And today, we're even seeing a surge in energy demand for AI data centers. So much so that even American coal plants are starting to stay open longer to supply it. And this is an example of the famous downstream or secondorder effects that Charlie Mer, Warren Buffett's former partner, said was the key to a good investment. And PBIze coal stocks, which are mainly used in steel production, are benefiting from the change in prices. Now, it looks like this quarter he did take some profits here after a strong run with Warrior Met Coal up 67% in the past year. He also holds $100 million in Trans Ocean, which is an offshore oil drilling company, which has had a pretty good year recently after oil prices got pushed higher by the Straighter Formos being closed. So, at least for Pabry, his main message this quarter was not some dramatic new bet. He took some profits, but most of his money stayed put, which is just classic PBR and really shows his investing style. But he did have one really interesting new position this quarter since at first this fourth stock looks totally out of character for him. It is a tiny $147,000 investment in a small Kazakhstan fintech stock called Caspie. Tiny enough that it's just a starter position for Pabry, but it also looks like a perfect fit for his style. Pabry obviously loves digging deep and he found this finance super app stock that millions in Kazakhstan are using for payments and shopping and he liked two main things about it. How much cash it produces and how low the price investors were willing to pay at the moment. >> There is no other company in Kazakhstan that produces 2 billion of cash flow. That's a very large number. On a recent interview with New Money, Pabry explained the company was paying a huge dividend. But when it paused that dividend to save up money for a big acquisition, investors panicked and the stock price collapsed. Then at the bottom, the smart money stepped in. WeChat's parent company made a big investment in the stock here. And even though it has recovered some in price since then, it's still way cheaper than any similarsized US fintech stock. So look, these 13F filings are delayed by up to 45 days. So, I would not be surprised if Pabry has added to this starter position since the quarter ended. But this is a good reminder that there are deals out there if you're willing to look beyond the crowd and beyond where a lot of Western investors are investing, which I will add as our second lesson in this notebook, which is to not be scared to search for cash flow in unpopular places. Cash is still king. And while Bill Aman likes famous, fast growing companies at a reasonable price, Pabry doesn't care if a stock is exciting. He just needs it to produce a ton of cash at a reasonable price and completely ignoring the crowd. But our next investor isn't just ignoring the crowd. He is actively betting against it and AI stocks. And after this, we'll look at Berkshire Hathaway, who has just made their biggest moves in the past 5 years, as well as our one non US investor on this list. So, Michael Bur was one of the few investors who predicted the housing bubble before the whole market collapsed in 2008. He ultimately profited over $700 million for his investors and over $100 million personally off that one trade. And he's also made profits betting against other big tech runs, but he's also made quite a few negative predictions that haven't paid off. This chart lists quite a few. So, his bets are controversial, but last year he opened a bet against Nvidia and Palanteer worth up to $1 billion in the best case scenario. And I made a whole video about it. But then Michael Bur actually shut down his fund last year and deleted his Twitter completely. Luckily, I can still find his trades in his private Substack newsletter, which I paid for. So, subscribe if you appreciate me going straight to the source to bring you guys this stuff, but this is Michael Bur's portfolio of stocks, as best I can estimate from his Substack posts. A few names immediately stand out. PayPal, Adobe, and Flutter. all stocks that are down substantially off their highs. But also, all of these stocks seem to offer a very good value at current prices. And Bur's biggest holding, Lululemon, which is down over 65% in the past year, is now trading at a pretty cheap PE ratio of less than 10. So, in his stock portfolio, Bur seems to be actively looking for value. But many investors may be more interested in his short and put positions. is targeted bets against certain stocks and entire sectors of the market like he's done many times before. So Bur's largest known short is against SOXX, a semiconductor ETF. So instead of betting against one chip company, he is betting against most of the chip industry all at once. Now, Bur believes much of the AI ecosystem is just a circular financing house of cards where companies like Nvidia are getting paid by AI companies to make chips and then they just invest that money back into AI companies to buy more chips and prop up the whole system. This would make the current AI cycle look a lot stronger than it actually is. And Bur uses this to explain why socks has risen over 100% in the past year. So in short, Bur's bet against this stock is a bet against AI. And this also tracks with his other large short. His next biggest bet is against Micron, a memory chip maker. Nebius, a high-flying cloud company, Nvidia, Oracle, and Palunteer. Now, these are still early bets, but some of them have paid off. Tesla and Applied Materials both saw their stocks fall, and Michael Bur has made a decent return betting against them. But Bur also uses put contracts that become more valuable when a stock falls. Burie did buy some puts against SOXX, but as semiconductor stocks kept rising, he ended up closing that trade at a loss. He then moved that money into a bet against QQQ, an ETF of the 100 biggest companies in the NASDAQ, which today is dominated by big tech and AI stocks. So, we don't know the exact size of most of these trades because Bur no longer has to report them to the SEC. So, these estimates are coming from what he personally shares with his subscribers. But one thing is pretty clear. Bur is pointing out cases where he thinks stock prices are disconnected from their earnings, especially in AI. Now, I may do a deeper dive into what's been happening with AI and some weird debt discrepancies that investigators are starting to uncover. So, get subscribed to see that come out next month. But Bur also went one step further saying about these trades, if this looks like preparation for a larger fall in the market, that is because it is. Now, Bur is famous for predicting market crashes. He's been called a broken clock. And Bur claims he's usually just early, which he sometimes is. Like when he bet against the housing market before the collapse in 2008. He actually placed that bet nearly 3 years earlier. And his fund almost went bankrupt when his investors revolted and tried pulling their money out early. So, he doesn't have investors today, but with AI stocks still hitting all-time highs, we'll have to see if Bur's current bet is wrong, or if he's just early. So, the biggest lesson I get from Michael Bur is being willing to question the crowd, even if everyone else thinks it's crazy. Most of the time, the crowd is right. That's why they call it the crowd. But when they're wrong, the payoff can be huge. Now, one caveat. Bur's bets against the market are extremely risky because he has to be right about the drop and when the drop happens. So, this is not a strategy that I personally would copy. But I do appreciate the questions that Bur asks and the risks that he points out exists in the market because our next investor sees the same uncertainty around AI stocks, but he draws the exact opposite conclusion. The bigger risk for him is not betting enough on the company that becomes the biggest winner. And after that, we'll look at Warren Buffett's Bergkshire Hathaway and the biggest changes that they've made this quarter. So, number two on our countdown is a Japanese investor and the founder of Soft Bank who has now invested 66% of an $18 billion fortune into a single stock. So, Masayoshi's son is one of the most successful investors in non- US companies. His Soft Bank fund got much of its start off a $20 million investment he made into the Chinese tech company Alibaba in 2000. A stake that would go on to be worth $75 billion when Alibaba went public in 2014. And that one early investment really shows both the danger and the appeal of Sun's approach. When he believes one company is going to change the world, he is willing to bet big. But that can also turn out disastrously, like Sun's 11 billion loss investing in Weiwork, a startup for co-working spaces. So out of Sun's US investments, which are the ones tracked in these filings, his biggest bet by far is in Intel, which is now worth 12 billion or 66% of his entire US portfolio. He also held a $1.6 $6 billion position in T-Mobile. But most of Sun's investments are now in the AI space between Intel, Ambic Micro, Symbotic, Tempest AI, and TSMC. In fact, Symbotic is now his second biggest US position. Maybe he watched my top robotic stocks video, but he also opened two small new positions, one in Capital 1 and one in Life 360. But the biggest pattern in this filing was actually around Sun's selling because he sold more stocks than he bought, completely exiting his position in 21 Capital, cutting his TSMC shares by 71% and selling 6% of SATA Logic, a satellite data company. So, at first, this might look like he's just taking risk off the table, especially with how heavily he's invested in AI stocks that have run up in value. But Sun's biggest bet actually is not in a public company. So, it doesn't show up in this file even though it's worth more than all of these stocks put together because Sun has made an enormous $64 billion investment into Open AI, adding another $30 billion in 2026. SoftBank also owns around 90% of ARM Holdings, one of Nvidia and Intel's biggest competitors. And both of these positions are kind of a double-edged sword because it gives Sun massive exposure if ARM or OpenAI hugely increase in value with OpenAI expected to go public within the next couple years. But they also own so much that they couldn't sell even if they wanted to if things start to go south. So Sun is kind of like the opposite of Monish Pabry. heavily pours into the biggest investment of the moment with seemingly less concern about value and it is a strategy that has historically underperformed for SoftBank's vision fund. But as Sun has shown before, picking one big platform winner can pay for a lot of losers in the long term. So that will be lesson number four out of five. Big bets cut both ways. But let's move on now to investor number one. And at the end of the video, I'll put all five of these portfolios on screen, so if you'd like, you can compare them yourself. So, Berkshire Hathaway has just had its most active quarter in years. Chairman Warren Buffett is taking a step back, and his handpicked successor, Greg Ael, is starting to make some big moves. With Buffett's input, of course, Warren is still in the office 5 days per week. But Berkshire Hathaway has been selling more stocks than they've bought for the last 14 straight quarters, building up a cash pile of more than 380 billion. But this quarter, they finally broke that streak. They bought more stocks than they sold for the first time in 3 1/2 years, putting more than 23.5 billion into the market. So my question was, what is Bergkshire saying? Are stocks at okay prices now, or is Greg Ael just getting a chance to finally flex his investing power? Well, let's start to answer that by looking at their biggest trades. Bergkshire's biggest move was adding another $17 billion to Alphabet, the company behind Google. And we know now that Warren Buffett personally opened this position after an interview he gave for CNBC. >> I initiated it. I normally wouldn't give you an answer on something like that, but I will because I am not doing anything that he doesn't approve of. He's not doing anything I don't approve of. We We talk all the time. >> They spent $6.8 8 billion acquiring Taylor Morrison, a major US home builder. And this is a really interesting bet because right now there are an estimated 4.7 million homes that need to be built to meet the current housing deficit. So this stock could be a play to fill that gap. Now, unfortunately for us, we actually can't buy this stock because it's no longer a public company. Bergkshire bought all of it. But they also own two homebuilders, NVR and LAR Corp, adding just over a4 billion dollars to the latter. So, if you were looking to invest in the housing gap, those are two Buffett style options. But Berkshire wasn't only buying technology and housing. The other big buy was another $1.6 billion into Delta Airlines, a very strong operator and one of the few airlines that actually grew in 2026, a year that also saw the bankruptcy of budget airlines spirit amid high oil prices. But what really stood out this quarter is just how little selling Berkshire really did. They trimmed half their Capital 1 and New Core holdings. the US's largest steel company. And they also trimmed their Kroger and Bank of America stakes. But on the whole, they mostly spent out of their cash reserves, dropping the pile of cash and cash equivalents for the first time in three and a half years. But what was most interesting for anyone who's a big fan of Bergkshire was the company also bought back $4.5 billion in their own stock, Berkshire Hathaway, which could signal one of two things. One, Bergkshire wants to show confidence as Greg Ael starts to take control. or two. Buffett and Abel believe that Bergkshire is one of the best deals available in the market right now. So, while we know that Warren Buffett is very happy to sit back and wait for opportunities to appear, it looks like they're starting to see opportunities in the market today. And this and all these investor reports show that even though they have different styles of investing, all of them are finding opportunities to put money into this past quarter. But let's add our fifth lesson before I share the full portfolios on screen, which is to think long-term in decades, not quarters. 14 quarters is a very long time to sit outside the market. But if the firm under Greg Ael is able to compound for decades going forward, those years start to matter a lot less because long-term compounding always beats short-term thinking. But as I promised, here is each investor's portfolio on screen, and I will also post these on my Instagram, realfint, if you want to take a closer look. And if you like this video, watch my breakdown of every financial crisis from the 1600s until now and the patterns that always appear before one happens.
Comentários 0
Entre para participar da discussão.
EntrarAinda não há comentários. Seja o primeiro a compartilhar sua opinião!