Recomendações
Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.
-
Entrada $496,37 26 ago 2026Atual $496,37 26 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices.
-
Entrada $576,14 26 ago 2026Atual $576,14 26 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices.
-
Entrada $383,90 26 ago 2026Atual $383,90 26 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices.
-
Entrada $436,49 26 ago 2026Atual $436,49 26 ago 2026Resultado +$0,00
This is a stock that I've personally added to my portfolio, and I'm down on just a little bit right now, down by about 10%. But, I'm super excited to hold it.
Transcrição Completa
One of my favorite ways to find investing ideas, stealing from super investors. Super investors are investors with over 100 million in assets under management. And every quarter, they are required by law to reveal all the moves they've been making in their portfolio. And I recently compiled the data to make a list of the top 50 most frequently bought dividend stocks by super investors in the most recent quarter. And you can actually download this sheet for free in the description. So, in this video, we're going to be reviewing the top 10 most bought dividend stocks by super investors. So, let's go ahead and dig in. Now, to analyze these top 10 stocks, we're going to be using forecaster.biz, which you can check out at the link in the description. My favorite feature is how you can overlay a company's fundamentals with the share price because ultimately growing sales, growing earnings, and growing dividends is what leads to higher share prices. So, if we go ahead and take a look at the top 10 list, there's obviously a lot for us to break down here, but the reality is the real value in looking at these super investor buys is in identifying the underlying trends. What do I mean by this? Well, again, there's a lot of value in simply looking at the purchases. But one of the things we do need to point out is look at Texas Instruments for example. In Q1 of 2025, they were the sixth most frequently bought stock by super investors. in Q2 of 2025, the 12th most frequently bought. And in Q4 of 2025, the seventh most frequently bought. But what's interesting is it wasn't on the list in Q3. And in Q4 of 2025, the seventh most frequently bought. So you can see exactly the valuation range where the super investors were adding this to their portfolio. And of course, if you've kept up with Texas Instruments, particularly over the last year or so, they've done incredibly well. In 2026, the stock is up over 46%. and I've personally been a major beneficiary in my personal portfolio. I'm up about 77% on my Texas Instruments position. So, let's start by simply looking at some key stats from the top 50 list. The first thing you'll notice is again we're only looking at the stocks that pay dividends and around 31 of them have a yield of above 1%. So, in other words, around 29 are yielding below 1%. The number of stocks yielding 2% or more is only 17 and the number of stocks yielding 3% or more is just eight. And once we get to 4%, it's only five stocks on the list. And we'll look at those high yielders in a moment. But the reality is that these super investors have a clear bias. They're focused on stocks that grow dividends over time. Stocks with low payout ratios, as you can see the average here, and stocks that have grown dividends over the last 5 years on average in total about 61.5%. So why do they favor these dividend growth stocks? Well, the reality is that stocks that grow dividends at a high rate are the exact group of stocks that have historically outperformed the market over the last 50 or so years. Not only is this category of stocks produce superior returns, but it's also done so with a lower beta, so essentially less volatility. Super investors are clearly biased towards dividend growth stocks. Now on top of this we can see they went heavier into technology and financial services stocks in the recent quarter with more buying particularly in the healthcare sector than we typically see. Now with that being said let's dive into just a few of these positions that they added particularly the ones in the top 10. What's interesting is we can see Microsoft came in at number one. Now Microsoft over the last 5 years has grown earnings at a high rate with the EPS cagger of above 18%. And what you'll notice is they're trading quite a bit below their 4-year average PE multiple. So if we look at Microsoft here on Forecaster, there's a couple of different things worth pointing out. If we look at sales over the last 5 years, we can see it's grown substantially. And along with it, the share price has climbed higher. But what you will notice is if you look in the last year, they're down by 3%, but the share price has been incredibly choppy, particularly from around April to really around current day. The stock went from trading as high as $541 a share all the way down to 356, climbed back up to 460 and then quickly fell all the way back down to 352 and then after the recent earnings report peaked at about $56 a share. That is a lot of volatility. But what we have to remember is these super investor purchases were made during Q2. So what does that mean? Well, it means these investor purchases were bought in this range right here. And so while we don't know exact purchase prices, it's clear a lot of super investors were buying the dip on Microsoft. Now, if we look at the fundamentals for Microsoft, you'll see things like revenue and earnings really haven't been impacted. In fact, the revenue growth is pretty beautiful. They're still growing revenues at a high rate. In fact, even if we look at earnings per share, gross profit ratios, things still look incredibly strong. Basic earnings per share has grown substantially in the last few years. So, what's the issue? Well, the obvious issue is the increase in capex spending. And this is something that most big tech stocks are going through right now as they compete in the expensive AI race. If we scroll down here to the bottom, we can see what capex spending looks like. It's ramped up significantly, particularly in just the last couple of years. It's essentially doubled. However, what a lot of people seem to be missing, maybe not super investors as it is the most frequently bought stock, is the fact that Microsoft from a capex perspective is in a much healthier position than most companies. How do we know this? Well, for one, they're one of the few companies, particularly hyperscaler stocks that aren't aggressively issuing debt right now. Stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are all aggressively issuing debt. A lot of them are even going free cash flow negative, such as Meta. However, that's not the case for Microsoft. In fact, Microsoft is still free cash flow positive, and they're projected to continue to stay that way, even through this capex cycle. And just as important, Microsoft already has substantial contracted demand supporting their increased capex spending. This is what the market wants to see. Their commercial remaining performance obligations increased 84% to 678 billion, creating one of the largest backlogs of revenue in all of big tech. This is revenue that has not yet been recognized. Now, this is great, but they've had a massive backlog for a while now. So, what changed? Why did we see such choppiness in their share price, particularly from around April of 2025 to now? While investors previously had an issue with the fact that despite Microsoft had a massive backlog, most of that backlog was tied to OpenAI, which essentially created customer concentration risk. But now, Microsoft's AI growth has become significantly more diversified. Nearly 90% of its fullear cloud revenue came from customers outside Frontier model companies such as Open AI. So, they've essentially alleviated themselves from this customer concentration risk. This is a big deal for Microsoft. Now, what's interesting is along with this, if we jump over to the political tab, we can see it really wasn't just super investors buying Microsoft in Q2. It saw quite a bit more congressional buying in Q2 than it had really over the last year. Now, coming in at number two, we do have Meta, who fundamentally again looks very attractive. This is another stock that's trading below its historic average valuation multiple. And this is actually one of the worst performing stocks, at least MAG 7 stocks year to date, down by about 15%. But the 3-year total return is still very strong. Now, they just recently started paying a dividend and the yield is small, but obviously there's a lot of dividend growth potential and the margins on this stock are just incredible. It's the highest out of all the top 10 stocks. So, what's the case for Meta? We can see over the last year now, it's down by about 25.62%. That's a substantial drawback for a stock that was once trading at almost $800 a share, now trading at around $560. Well, again, we need to understand the overall business model for Meta. More than anything, this is an advertising business, and it's doing very well in that segment. The advertising cement grew 27% year-over-year in the recent quarter. Just mind-blowing revenue growth for a stock already this large. And ultimately, that's possible because they're firing on all three variables. Daily active users was 3.6 billion on average for June of 2026, an increase of 3% year-over-year. But combine that with the fact that ad impressions was up 14% year-over-year. And then the average price per ad was up 12% year-over-year. That's how you get to 27% revenue growth. Now, here's what's interesting when we look at the fundamentals for Meta in particular. If we jump over to the financial statements and take a look at revenue, what do you notice? The slowdown in revenue happened in 2022. And really, this is because we technically entered into a recession. What do I mean by that? Well, we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. And typically the first thing that happens when that occurs is we see a pullback in advertising revenue. And that's essentially what happened to Meta Stock. Meta was impacted by pullback in advertising revenue. So it is something to be aware of when you're analyzing the business model. But obviously since then revenue has surged. Now what we do need to point out is the fact that the market is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the amount of capex spending we're seeing from Meta. And we know this because the spread on their debt is getting wider and wider. If you want to know how the market really feels about increased capex spending and debt issuance, then just take a look at what the bonds for each of these companies are doing. What does the yield look like? What does the spread look like relative to treasuries? And right now, Meta is significantly higher than their peers, obviously with the exception of SpaceX and Oracle. But as a result, they're trading at a PE multiple on a forward-looking basis significantly lower than they have been historically speaking. With that being said, it's also mind-blowing to see just how cheap this stock got around 2022, 2023. Now, there's plenty of other things we can point out, such as the fact that the Walt Disney Company is actually on this list who has a 5-year EPS cagger of 16.45%. And if you've been keeping up with the stock, you know just how tumultuous the past 5 years and really the past decade has been. In the last 10 years, the company is only up by 15.2%. Which means if you're including inflation, you've actually seen negative returns, which is just mind-blowing to think about. at one point trading at $200 a share, now trading at 110. And so when we talk about the max draw down during this time period, at one point they were down close to around 60%. And of course, on top of this, they were previously a dividend growth company, but they actually had to cut their dividend for a time period. And if you look at what's been going on with the changes in their earnings, it really does start to make a lot of sense. If we scroll all the way down and just look at basic EPS, they got decimated during 2020 and recovery was not easy. However, 2025 EPS was finally back above where they were previously in 2019. So, it appears there's a bet that the company is finally starting to see some turnaround. With that being said, if you look at the trailing 12-month PE multiple sitting at about 22.66, 66, which obviously is quite a bit lower than what we've seen over the last few years, but that's not a great representation as we just saw what happened with the share price and with earnings. So, this is a huge turnaround play bet. And then one of the highest yielding stocks on this list was Comcast. Now, Comcast has been in a serious decline over the last 5 years, down by 54% despite the fact that sales have been somewhat steady and continued to grow, although at a very slow rate. But this doesn't paint the whole story. Here's what you really need to understand. If you look at the core business for Comcast connectivity and platforms, they actually have been seeing slight declines across the board. We can see revenue from Q1 of 2025 to Q1 of 2026 was down by about 2.5%. That's sitting at about 20 billion in revenue. However, look at their other business segments. We can see substantial growth in the theme park segment, in the media segment, in the studio segment. These are just much smaller business segments. Combined, it's about half of the connectivity business. So, it's a unique situation where the valuation multiple is about half of what it's been on average over the last year and a very high starting dividend yield. So, you can see the top 10 list. Microsoft Meta, Visa, S&P Global, Google, Disney, Capital 1 Financial, Thermoff, Fisher Scientific, DHR, and Comcast. There's a lot of insight into where the capital's moving with this list, but there's even deeper trends we can find when looking at the top 50 list over the last few years. I did a deep dive on what this list has looked like historically over the last few years. Yes, tech was the most frequently bought sector in the recent quarter. However, what you'll notice is Nvidia fell from the seventh most bought stock last quarter all the way down to 30th. ASML dropped off the list entirely. And this is a stock that I've done very well on over the last year, up 162%. And we can also see Apple, which was the third most bought stock 2 years ago, is nowhere to be found. So, what tech stocks are they actually buying? Well, super investors weren't buying the popular AI winners that everyone has had on their watch list over the last year. Instead, they were buying the companies the market has deemed at risk of disruption due to AI. I mean, just take a look at this list. We have S&P Global, Asenture, Inuit, SAP, Equifax, Cognizant, and Salesforce. These are all companies that have been hammered over the last year with some being down 50% at some points. These are software companies, IT services, and financial data companies. These are what I deem as AI victim stocks. And again, I started to dive into this even deeper and look at the trend we've seen over the last few quarters. In Q2 of 2025, there's only three of these AI victim stocks on the list, but that number continued to trend upwards over the last few quarters, and now we have nine of these stocks. For example, S&P Global is very high on this list at number four. Despite continued growth in their sales, we can see a substantial decrease in the share price after that earnings report back in early January, maybe late February, where the stock was trading above 500 and in a matter of days trading below $400 a share. And just take a look at what this does for the stock in terms of forward valuation multiples. Take a look at that forward PE. They're trading at their lowest forward PE multiple really in the last 5 or so years with it currently sitting roughly at around 26.5. Now that's still a PE multiple that's a premium relative to the market. But think about the business model. Their indices business incredibly stable growing recurring revenue. Their credit rating business segment debt issuance is through the roof right now. So, this is a stock that I've personally added to my portfolio, and I'm down on just a little bit right now, down by about 10%. But, I'm super excited to hold it. I charted out the price movement and the buy range for all these stocks that I just listed out, and you can see they were all in a significant downtrend, and a lot of them have already started to see a recovery process take place. In the blue here, this is Q2. This is where the super investors were adding to these stocks. You can see a significant recovery has taken place for literally all seven of these stocks. However, that doesn't mean the opportunity has passed for all of them. Perhaps one of the most interesting case studies has been Asenture. Now, Asenture is essentially a consulting and technology implementation company. In other words, this is exactly what the market believes is ripe for disruption. And to some degree, that might be true. Revenue guidance is relatively low for this stock over the next few years. They're essentially guiding towards singledigit revenue growth. But keep that in mind for just a moment because yes, singledigit revenue growth rate is certainly slower than what we've seen historically speaking. If we overlay revenue growth rates, we can see oftent times they're sitting at around 4 to 7, maybe even 5% for the trailing 12-month revenue growth. But I talked about this stock just a few months ago when trading at very low prices. And the reason it caught my attention is when I was looking at it through the lens of a reverse discounted cash flow analysis. Because essentially what this is doing is telling us how much growth is priced into a stock. And so when I apply 0% free cash flow growth rate to the free cash flow for this stock over the next decade, the company's worth $244 a share. So that means the stock essentially has negative free cash flow growth priced in. In fact, it has -4% free cash flow growth priced in over the next decade. So the market is still incredibly pessimistic on this stock. And when it was trading at its lowest prices, I ran this model at around $128 a share. The market was pricing in negative10% free cash flow growth annually. That's the type of scenario where this really starts to become valuable because you can see just how pessimistic the market has become on certain stocks. And so while some level of disruption might be the case, you can see this sell-off was way overstated. It's the reason super investors were loading up on these companies that had been disrupted maybe by some degree by AI. It's also worth noting, I've never seen this before, but the top three most bought dividend stocks have been identical for the third consecutive quarter. Super investors absolutely love Microsoft, Meta, and Visa at these prices. Still, Microsoft and Meta are still trading well below the historic valuation multiples. And with Visa recently hitting all-time highs, it's trading slightly above its historic valuation multiple. But these are for the most part historically capital-like businesses. Not so much now with the capex spending from Microsoft and Meta, but companies that generate high return on invested capital and have incredible gross profit margins. So go ahead and let me know what you think of these top 10 most frequently bought dividend stocks by super investors. And remember to not just look at the list and the names, but to look for the underlying trends because there were a lot of underlying trends in this recent quarter from super investors. And again, be sure to check out forecaster.biz at the link in the description. So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the
Comentários 0
Entre para participar da discussão.
EntrarAinda não há comentários. Seja o primeiro a compartilhar sua opinião!