🚨 MAJOR Market Update (for all serious investors)

This is the Saturday news roundup, and today's August 29th. It's been a little while since I've had my production assistant Basher here on set, and we have a lot to share with you this week because this week has been absolutely nuts. And what we just heard yesterday from Fed Chair Warsh is totally changing up the market. There are going to be a lot of negative things that we're going to see in the news coming in the next couple of weeks, and even in this video because I have to share what happened over the last week. And so, to drown out some of that negativity, I thought it'd be cool if I could get as many comments as possible saying hi to Basher, saying something positive. Let's see if we could break the record of how many comments are talking specifically to a YouTuber's dog. Jumping right into the video, this week we had a lot that went on in the stock market, and I'm going to go over the five main things and how they're going to affect what we're going to see in the next week or two. I'm also going to give you dates to put on your calendar for the rest of September, and even a bonus of three different stocks that I bought pretty heavy yesterday, and I'm going to give you my reasoning as to why I think they're still great buys and probably going to have even better deals over this next week. My name is Nolan Gouveia. My students call me Professor G, and I made this channel to make investing simplified. Remember that all investing carries risk, so do your own research. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a financial advisor. One more quick announcement, and then we'll get right into it. If you're watching this video before 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time, 1:00 p.m. Eastern today on Saturday, you should definitely sign up for this free webinar that I'm doing at 10:00 a.m. Pacific, 1:00 p.m. Eastern today, Saturday, August 29th. This webinar is totally free, but it's going to explain what we're seeing in the market, and specifically how to stay the course in a very, very volatile world. I'm going to give you all the facts and figures, and let you ask your questions, so we have a Q&A time right at the end. And if you're seeing this video after that time, go ahead and sign up anyway with the link down below because I'll go ahead and just throw you the recording straight to your email after we're done. All right, let's talk about these five big news stories that happened over the last week and how they're going to affect the stock market moving forward. And number one is none other than the biggest stock that everyone's always got on their mind, and that's Nvidia. And Nvidia absolutely crushed earnings this week. They reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue and guided roughly $108 next quarter, reinforcing that AI infrastructure spending is still accelerating. Nvidia's outlook pushed the stock sharply higher and lifted semiconductors in the broader Nasdaq. This is obviously the biggest near-term bullish sentiment for the stock market. It validates earnings behind AI trade, and it definitely can be supporting a lot of other stocks like AMD, Broadcom, Micron, SMH, and any AI-related stocks. Second most important thing that came up this week was that inflation came in a little higher than what the Fed wants. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year-over-year while core PCE was 3.3%. That's still well above the Fed's 2% target. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward 4.65% following the report. This is the biggest potential headwind. Higher inflation equals fewer further out rate cuts equals higher bond yields, which then puts pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. And this is part of the reason why we started to see a slide in the stock market, especially in the more risky assets near the end of the week last week. But another thing that moved markets by the end of last week actually happened yesterday on Friday, and this is big. This is going to be something that actually pushes the market next week and possibly over the next month, and I'll show you exactly why later in this video with the different dates you need to watch. But for right now, number three was that Fed chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech yesterday, Friday, came in a little more hawkish than we expected. Hawkish just means being more focused on fighting inflation, even if that requires keeping interest rates higher or raising them. So, his main focus is inflation, noting that over half of the core PCE basket is still rising more than 3% annually. And he signaled the Fed remains open to higher rates if inflation doesn't improve. Warsh also pushed for a quieter Fed, opposing traditional forward guidance and dot plots because he believes they limit flexibility. On the positive side, though, he highlighted that AI investment as a potential driver of productivity and long-term economic growth. Overall, the speech increases the risk of rate staying higher for longer, which could put pressure on stocks, especially high-valuation growth stocks. Again, that with what we saw earlier in the week, that's what's putting a lot of pressure on growth stocks, but some of the Mag 7 stocks actually broke out a little bit yesterday, like Amazon and Microsoft, but those higher-risk stocks, especially in the AI world that are a little bit smaller cap, definitely got crushed. Number four, new semiconductor tariffs are now in focus. The Trump administration is reportedly considering another round of semiconductor tariffs, potentially including chips used in data centers. That's particularly important for Nvidia and the broader AI supply chain because much of the advanced chip manufacturing occurs overseas. This creates a super weird situation because Nvidia's demand is obviously bullish, and we're seeing that it's just huge at this point, but government policy could possibly increase costs for these types of companies, and that could complicate the whole trade. AI build-out already has costs of its own, but if we're going to increase tariffs on things that are being imported, that's going to be an issue for these companies. I'm sure Nvidia's going to do just fine, but I'm looking at more of the other AI build-out and some of those other stocks that have to do with data centers and have to do with the other parts of the AI bottleneck. This is a key reason why one of those stocks specifically is one that I bought pretty heavy yesterday on Friday, because while yes, this isn't the best news in the world, I also don't believe that those tariffs are going to stick, just like most haven't been, and so I just think that I'm going to be buying this bad news and thinking that that's going to turn into something pretty big down the road. Number five, there's still geopolitical and oil risks obviously happening in the background. There's so much uncertainty still with the Strait of Hormuz, still with what's going on in Iran, the Middle East. This is definitely affecting oil prices, Treasury yields, and definitely risk sentiment. Obviously, a major oil spike at any given time could absolutely hurt the entire stock market, and even more importantly, inflation long-term. And that hurts the economy much more than just a sharp drop in the market that could recover. So, we're definitely always watching this situation, and I'll let you know what happens there. All in all, my market takeaway right now, the bullish story is that Nvidia just gave investors strong evidence that the AI earnings boom is real. The bear story though is that inflation is still too high, Treasury yields are elevated, and tariffs or geopolitical risks could keep the Fed from cutting rates aggressively anytime soon. Okay, so now let's move on to the dates that you're going to want to put on your calendar. Make sure and circle these. September 4th is big, that's the jobs report. This is probably the biggest early month catalyst. We're trying to see here if there's any reason for the Fed to cut rates or possibly increase rates. On September 10th and 11th, we have PPI inflation and CPI inflation. September 15th through 16th is huge. This is the biggest event of the month and this is the FOMC meeting and the actual rate decision. Current expectations are unusually uncertain because inflation remains above target while labor market data has weakened. And then at the end of the month we have PCE inflation and GDP. This will give investors another important read on inflation and economic growth. All right, so moving right along, let me tell you about three different stocks that I bought pretty heavy yesterday on Friday. And not just the stocks that I bought, but let me give you the reasoning behind it so that you can understand what goes on in my mind as to why I make a buy. I don't just buy a very very good company at any price, but conversely I also don't run away from a good company if it's at all-time highs. Because I'm not necessarily just looking at, well, it went up a bunch so I'll just wait for it to drop. Sometimes that doesn't happen. What I am looking for is what can I see in the next five years as to why this company is going to be worth holding in the portfolio. Almost every single one of my positions in my portfolio, I buy with the intent to not touch for at least five years. Most of my positions I've never touched. So, the first stock that I bought a little bit more of that I already had some due to this dip that's happened and one that I think is probably the most undervalued Mag Seven stock that there is is Meta. Meta's recent weakness is largely being driven by investor concerns over its massive AI spending. But the underlying business remains extremely strong. Q2 revenue jumped 28% advertising continues to grow and Meta's investing today to strengthen its AI capabilities and monetization. If Meta can turn this enormous AI investments into better engagement, better tools on its platforms, better ad targeting and new AI driven data, this current pullback over these last couple of months really could be a very attractive price looking forward, especially when my time horizon is definitely much further down the road. I don't think we're going to see Meta do anything less than be a thousand-dollar stock within five years, easily. And just recently in the news, Meta did agree to pay up to eighteen billion dollars over the next decade to settle claims that Facebook and Instagram were designed to be addictive to children, while also implementing stricter teen safeguards, such as usage limits, nighttime restrictions, and stronger age verification. And while that is a big hit to the company, overall, that's actually a win, and they can put that behind them and just start moving forward. And that's part of the reason why Friday there was at least some positivity in the stock. I think as long as Mark Zuckerberg can put a little bit more focus into his core competencies, I don't see how Meta doesn't crush it soon. Number two, the heaviest stock that I bought yesterday happened right after their earnings report, and they had terrible earnings, and so the stock dropped a bunch overnight, and dropped even more the next morning, on Friday morning. And so I told my school group on Thursday, when I saw that drop after hours, that on Friday morning, I'd be buying as long as the price was at the price that I told them. And it actually opened up right at what I said, and then dropped even further. So I actually bought twice yesterday, and it was cool to see a lot of my school group was prepared, and those of them that did the research and thought that that was good for their portfolio, bought in as well. And I think long-term, this is going to be a very good play. Now, yes, I ran did drop after earnings, and they did have a pretty bad earnings report, but what you don't see there is that they're transitioning. They're transitioning from their old Bitcoin mining equipment over to this new AI style. And so yes, of course, there's going to be a net loss. I think they had like a seven hundred million-dollar net loss. But overall, I'm pretty bullish on what could happen here. The numbers I'm watching are the $128.8 million in 2026 AI cloud revenue, nearly eight times last year. 70 million of that 70 million dollars of AI revenue in Q4 alone, roughly one billion dollars of current operating AI ARR, and approximately four billion dollars of contracted 2026 ARR. I ran also has a major multi-year Microsoft contract, Nvidia exemplar cloud status for its GB300 deployment, and it secured billions in GPU financing and customer prepayments to help fund the massive buildout. There's obviously still a bunch of risk, and so I wouldn't just buy because it dropped. That's never a good idea. You could be catching a falling knife, but I'm buying specifically because the underlying AI infrastructure thesis continues to strengthen. I will say one more time, this is a higher risk, but possible higher reward investment, so do your own research. Now, the last one that I bought is definitely one that's more of a combo of a couple of stocks together. It's actually an ETF, but an ETF that only has a couple of holdings within it. But, this is potentially one of the most important underappreciated AI bottlenecks that we're going to see over this next decade. Nvidia, AMD, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft can keep spending billions on AI data centers, but you can't simply build more GPUs if there isn't enough HBM to put next to them. That gives the memory manufacturers unusual pricing power. Micron, for example, said its HBM supply was already fully allocated for calendar year 2026, while industry supply constraints are expected to persist beyond 2026. And today's shortage isn't something that can necessarily be tackled very quickly. Building clean rooms and advanced memory capacity takes years, while HBM requires increasingly complex manufacturing and packaging, SK Hynix's CEO now expects memory shortages to persist through 2030, which is a remarkable statement considering how cyclical the memory industry traditionally is. So, what do you need to understand and why did I invest in this? The AI thesis. AI just isn't a GPU story anymore. If AI infrastructure spending continues, the companies controlling the scarce memory required to power those GPUs can potentially capture an enormous portion of the economics. That's why I think Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung deserve much more attention from investors over the next two to five years. All three of them effectively control the DRAM market. With the three companies dominating production of the memory chips that AI accelerators need. More importantly, AI's created a memory bottleneck. Every new generation of GPUs requires dramatically more HBM, and HBM consumes more than three times the wafer capacity per bit of conventional DRAM, making it difficult for supply to catch up with demand. SK Hynix alone held about 58% of the HBM market in Q1 2026, while Micron and Samsung make up most of the remainder. So, what did I buy? The DRAM ETF. It's pulled back sharply after an enormous run, but if the AI memory shortage and data center build-out continue for years, this pullback could ultimately be a great long-term entry point. Just expect significant volatility along the way. Again, like I said before, any position I buy, I'm not looking for it to do anything big within a day or five days or a year. I'm looking for five years down the road, possibly 10 years down the road. So, do your research on that one as well. This is it for this week. I hope that information helps you. If you haven't yet, sign up for that webinar down below, even if you miss the actual time to go live, because again, I'll send it to you straight to your email and you'll get all the information and the question and answer session that I talked about during that very important webinar for right now. Watch this video if you're worried about the next lost decade. A lot of people are talking about that especially with valuation so high. So watch this full of facts and figures and how you can actually prepare or watch this one that I just did recently and remember to keep investing simplified.