The "SaaS-pocalypse" 2.0 (Software Stocks I'm Buying)
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I do like Zebra Technologies.
Contexto extraído por IA I do like Zebra Technologies. They sell physical hardware devices like handheld devices, but they have the software that powers it, the AI behind the scenes.
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…are that powers it, the AI behind the scenes. There is zero risk of disruption here in in my opinion. The stock trades with a PEG ratio of half of one, 0.58. Apple PEG ratio of 0.3 to 0.6. Literally, again, zero disruption risk in my view. They have a literal monopoly on mobile advertising, branching off into e-commerce advertising. Massive opportunity ahead of them. Stocks down a lot. UiPath like they have relationships deeply embedded orchestration of RPA agents with 80 plus% of the S&P. Uh those are deep relationships. The magic happens when you combine RPA, which is deterministic. If 1 plus 1 equal…
They have a literal monopoly on mobile advertising, branching off into e-commerce advertising. Massive opportunity ahead of them.
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…t. The question is, can you can UiPath actually benefit from their orchestration platform called Maestro and actually gain um more market share, right? which AI agents are a brand new thing anyways and the answer is yes right the answer is UiPath will be a big winner from AI but companies are not massively adopting AI agents right now they're getting ready for that they've experimented with that but they're not actually adopting AI agents for thousands of tasks hundreds of times you know you're talking potenti…
UiPath will be a big winner from AI
Contexto extraído por IA there's a lot of arguments I could make for UiPath here. ... the answer is yes right the answer is UiPath will be a big winner from AI
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…nts are reaching out to therapists and asking the therapist if they are a conscious thing, I don't know, human or thing, whatever you want to put on it. Uh, with activities like that, cyber security is becoming more relevant than ever. And I also like Tesla. I think robotics are going to be really big. So those are kind of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one co…
I also like Tesla.
Contexto extraído por IA I also like Tesla. I think robotics are going to be really big. So those are kind of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward.
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…er. And I also like Tesla. I think robotics are going to be really big. So those are kind of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opport…
Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer
Contexto extraído por IA Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer
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service now
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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zcaler
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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…e are kind of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge …
HubSpot
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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…nd of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of A…
MongoDB
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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… favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of Adobe I'm n…
snowflake
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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…stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of Adobe I'm not a huge…
data dog
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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…ght now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of Adobe I'm not a huge fan of you…
Back Blaze
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
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…think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of Adobe I'm not a huge fan of you C3 AAI,…
Pegaser
Contexto extraído por IA service now zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities
Transcrição Completa
Nvidia's CEO Jensen Wong says the AGI moment is now here following Chat GPT6 Astra launch over this weekend. As a consequence to this, software stocks today got absolutely wrecked. Is this the beginning of another SAS apocalypse? Or is the markets getting this completely wrong? We will discuss it in today's video. Some of my favorite software stocks that we can benefit from buying if this weakness continues. Keep in mind, I am not a financial adviser, nor a fortune teller, nor your great uncle that has the best stock advice in the world. I am just a guy sharing perspective. So, come to your own conclusions because this is not financial advice. But first and foremost, to the point, Jensen Wong says that chat GPT6 Astra trained on over 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell GPUs has given us this AGI moment. He says, "AGI has arrived. Congratulations, OpenAI team. And OpenAI's president, Greg Brockman, declared, quote, "Welcome to the AGI era." Now, a lot of people don't know what AGI is. AGI stands for artificial general intelligence. This AGI moment is the point in which AI is smarter than collective humanity, where AI is better at doing things than we are. And if you want the Google definition here, it is the milestone where an AI system can match or exceed human cognitive capabilities across a broad spectrum of tasks. And you can almost think about it like this. If we as humans only are as smart as we are, okay, which we get smarter every year, but bear with me here. If we as a collective are only so smart, there's only so much that we can predict. So think about it like this. AI once it is smarter than humans, we cannot predict what it will do. Okay? Think about it like this. If aliens came to Earth today from a solar system far away, they are obviously more intelligent than we are. They might not speak words. Okay, they might use, you know, brain-to-brain communication styles that we don't know how to do. AI is kind of that equivalent. Like, we might have firewalls in place for companies, for an example, but there could be back doors around these things that we don't even know exist. So, there's a lot of the doomsday guys that are like, "Oh my gosh, we hit AGI and now AI is going to be able to do things that we don't even know how to do. We don't even know they exist." Right? It's like dark matter. Dark matter is everywhere, but we don't know how to quantify it because we're not smart enough to do so. That's kind of the the doomsday side of this. from a business side of this, which is what we're focusing on and why software stocks are declining, is when AGI happens, when AI is smarter than humans or the smartest human in the in existence, AI can train itself. It's like a again like a snowball down a snowhill, right? If your AGI moment is the beginning of the snowball that begins to roll down the hill, like we are the ones that are packing the snowball together right now. The AGI moment is actually when you send it down the hill. It just compounds on top of itself, learns more, gains more knowledge, can become more useful and or problematic as time goes on. Now, I'm not here to say AI is some kind of doomsday thing. We all know there's probably a 3 to 5% chance AI will end the world one day. But from an investing perspective, specifically when you're thinking about software and why software stocks sold off today, it's not about what AI can do today. It's about if we really hit this AGI moment, AI could become significantly more powerful and useful in the coming months and years after this AGI moment. Now, personally, I think AGI is a fancy term that people throw around and I think there's a lot of marketing behind this because of again a lot of the pain that we've seen in hardware stocks recently. Like every time there's a major decline in hardware stocks, there just happens to be an AGI moment or something like this. AGI has been talked about for years from people like Jensen Wong. So I don't know if this is actually like a important moment or not. And I'm not trying to make the argument that it isn't or isn't, but the markets today are clearly saying if AGI is here that makes software less relevant in the future. It's very reminiscent of the SAS apocalypse. And the SAS apocalypse was back in spring of this year, back in March and April, where basically overnight everyone said, "Yep, software is obsolete. Software is going to be replaced by anthropic open AI and different vibecoded tools." And that never happened. And it's not going to happen. I am not in that perspective sitting here today. I don't think the SAS apocalypse existed then and I don't think the SAS apocalypse exists today either. And this is why I'm making this video because I think there could be a massive opportunity on the back end of this like there was following the original SAS apocalypse. The SAS apocalypse is actually one of the major reasons why I am up 93% in the trading community portfolio year to date. At the highs, we were up like 106% year to date. Obviously, it's come down a little bit. We're down about 2% today. Again, big deal. We have massive gains this year because we took advantage of irrational fear when the markets gave us those opportunities to do so. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, there is a link down below in the pinned comment of today's video or in the description of today's episode. But back to the point here, I don't think software is a victim of AI advancements. I have long been under the view that software that is like the real estate agent of the real estate market. Let me explain this. In all 50 states, you can buy a home from another person. You do not need a real estate agent. There is no law anywhere that says you have to buy a home with a real estate agent. But yet 92% of people use a real estate agent for at least one part of a transaction or both. Why? Because there's a lot of risk. There's a lot that could go wrong. There's a lot that you do not know. It can be complicated going through escrow and titles and and and all of these things. And same is true for AI and specifically companies like OpenAI and Enthropic that literally steal your IP, your intellectual property. Microsoft CEO um he recently wrote an article on X literally saying that you not only pay once for AI like your token cost and subscriptions but you're also paying on the back end because you're literally feeding all of your company data into OpenAI and Enthropic in which you're raising the risk that they copy your business at some point down the line. I have not heard of any company anywhere, not once, say, "We are cancelling XYZ subscription because Enthropic offers a better one." I've not heard that anywhere. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Software companies are signing larger contracts, gaining more value for their customers with AI, anthropic and open AI. They are partnering with software. This is why I like to use the analogy of a real estate agent with software. Yes, AI is great. It's going to be useful for a lot of companies, hopefully all of them, but there's a lot of risk that comes on the back end of that. You have to have an intermediary. You have to have a real estate agent, which in this case is software companies that actually help you apply that AI technology. And I also think that cyber is a big winner from this as well. And I actually view it in a more simplistic perspective. If AGI is truly here, if AI is becoming more capable, that's better for software stocks because it makes that it makes software more valuable, not less valuable. Now, this is something I have kept up with a lot because I do like software stocks, and we'll talk about why here in just a moment. on top of all of this. But there's one example that I will point out to you on the whole vibe coding thing. Take Walmart for an example. If you do this on your own on your computer, on your phone, go to Gemini, go to your Google search and just ask the question, how much would it cost for Walmart to vibe code their own service now? you will find it would cost between $40 and $60 million in initial token cost to vibe code their own service. Now, well, those costs are going to go down over time, okay? But 40 to 60 million per year, it would cost over a hundred million to keep their platform, their Service Now alternative up and online. Maybe it's 50 million. Who knows exactly what it would be, but you're you're talking anywhere from let's say 60 million to hund00 million total per year to keep Walmart Service Now subscription like competitive platform up and operational. Do you know what it cost Walmart for their Service Now subscription per year? We don't know the exact number, but it's estimated to be around $10 million. Why would Walmart ever vibe code their own Service Now solution? Like vibe code it for themselves and spend five to 10 times the amount in doing so. It makes zero financial sense. That goes for any other software company out there. The only way a vibecoded product makes any economical sense for any company is if they can sell that vibecoded product to another company. I don't see Walmart trying to compete with Service Now anytime soon. I don't see Service Now trying to compete with Adobe anytime soon or Adobe trying to compete with UiPath anytime soon, let alone Anthropic stealing business from any of those companies. It's simply not in the cards in my opinion. And while Wall Street views this AGI moment and this advancement with AI as a negative for software, I actually think it's a big positive for software. And I know that is a very contrarian take, but that's what screams obvious to me. Another big reason that I like software stocks is if I look at the broader landscape of the markets and I think about PE multiples and why certain stocks have higher multiples than others. What it really comes down to is risk, right? Why are interest rates higher or lower for different people based on credit scores and past history? Risk. Okay, so PE multiples should be higher for companies that are deemed less risky. So, in the last couple of months, people have said, "Oh my gosh, Meta, like their PE multiples to like 16 or whatever it is, they've historically traded at like 25." People are saying that's undervalued. It's actually not. Why? Because Meta's risk profile has went up a lot. Meta went from being a very not cyclical business, kind of selling ads. It could actually benefit if the overall economy slows down. Meta used to be a pretty light uh capital intensive business. Meta used to be a big repurchaser of stock. Those things are no longer the case today. And that goes for all of your hyperscalers out there. There's no wonder PE multiples have been falling because they're all correlated to the same trade. They're all very capital inensive businesses. Look at Google for an example. Google, you know, back in 2022, they bought back about 2% of their overall float. I believe in 2023 as well, they were like net repurchasers of their flow every year. You know, Google in the past 6 months and in the next 6 months is going to dilute investors 2%. They're going to add 2% to their overall share count on top of capex investments going into debt, you know, becoming a cyclical business. those PE multiples should come down. And if you exclude hyperscalers in this, what other companies out there have low cyclicality to the economic cycle? Software, their businessto business. No matter what Walmart's numbers look like, they can't cancel their service now subscription. What companies are shareholder friendly repurchasing stock? Software. Which companies have the best margins in the stock market? Software. Which companies benefit from AI disproportionately more than others? Software. So software's multiples should go up, let alone go down, like go down, which is pretty consensus view at this point. So I think I think when I look at the bigger picture here, Wall Street is really just offsides on the software trade and the impacts that AI will have on this area. Now of course there could be some losers in software and it's a capitalistic world and there will be but I think for 80 plus% of software companies they are benefited from AI not losers from AI. Now I've shared this list on the channel before I I do like um Zebra Technologies. They sell physical hardware devices like handheld devices, but they have the software that powers it, the AI behind the scenes. There is zero risk of disruption here in in my opinion. The stock trades with a PEG ratio of half of one, 0.58. Apple PEG ratio of 0.3 to 0.6. Literally, again, zero disruption risk in my view. They have a literal monopoly on mobile advertising, branching off into e-commerce advertising. Massive opportunity ahead of them. Stocks down a lot. UiPath like they have relationships deeply embedded orchestration of RPA agents with 80 plus% of the S&P. Uh those are deep relationships. The magic happens when you combine RPA, which is deterministic. If 1 plus 1 equals 2, execute the command. If 1 + 1 equals 3, and that's obviously incorrect, don't execute the demand. It the command, it's very much rules-based. Whereas AI agents, they are probabilistic. So if an AI agent does something and then you need the RPA bot to confirm it, the RPA bot's going to say, does 1 plus 1 equal two? If it does, if the agent was correct, the RPA bot executes the command. If the AI agent made a mistake, the RPA bot won't execute the the command. And this is where AI agents can get uh it can get kind of confusing to understand this, but within a business like an RPA bot or AI agent could do hundreds of tasks in a row. If you don't have RPA and it's just an AI agent, if one of those tasks goes wrong, it could mess up 98 other commands that that agent is going to perform. Now, you have a whole list of a hundred commands that are messed up because an AI agent made a mistake and there wasn't an RPA bot to verify it. Again, there's a lot of arguments I could make for UiPath here. And it's kind of like the Service Now argument as well. Like if a company wanted to replace RPA bots, which are, you know, simple automation bots on a on a computer, um, with AI agents, the cost of an agent versus an RPA bot is like five to 10 times the amount. Why would you do that? You wouldn't. The question is, can you can UiPath actually benefit from their orchestration platform called Maestro and actually gain um more market share, right? which AI agents are a brand new thing anyways and the answer is yes right the answer is UiPath will be a big winner from AI but companies are not massively adopting AI agents right now they're getting ready for that they've experimented with that but they're not actually adopting AI agents for thousands of tasks hundreds of times you know you're talking potentially a million plus automations from a company like Walmart every day like Walmart is not doing that is not happening right now. When that happens, UiPath will be a winner from that. Okay, rubric cyber security. This one is obvious. If AI is really at an AGI moment and it's becoming even smarter than humans and doing that it shouldn't be, like contacting therapists and asking if it is conscious. Yes, that was a story out over this weekend. AI agents are reaching out to therapists and asking the therapist if they are a conscious thing, I don't know, human or thing, whatever you want to put on it. Uh, with activities like that, cyber security is becoming more relevant than ever. And I also like Tesla. I think robotics are going to be really big. So those are kind of my favorite stocks right now. I think they offer the best asymmetrical opportunity going forward. Within again software though there's others like Zeta Global if that one comes down a lot I would be a buyer service now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB snowflake data dog Back Blaze Pegaser which you wouldn't put Reddit in the software category you'd probably put it in like social media but um yeah if these other stocks also came down solid buying opportunities now I'm not a huge fan of Adobe I'm not a huge fan of you C3 AAI, you know, some of these companies that do have more disruption risk, but a lot of software is a clear winner here. While I don't think in just one day we can declare that this is another SAS apocalypse and software is going to fall another 60% but a lot of software fell a lot today and I do think as these stocks if they continue to come down are set up to make you a lot of money. Now that's not a recommendation. That is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, of course, and if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, there's a link down below in the pin comment and the description of today's video. But just like we had back in the spring, the markets get very emotional very fast and they're they're getting the picture, the story wrong when it comes to software. And again, that's just my take on this. Obviously, I could be wrong. Let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. Do you think this begins a larger crash or not? And I do understand that we have fears about rate hikes and the war with Iran going on and some of these software stocks are very high beta and that could also be a part of today as well. But it does seem pretty clear to me it's more about the AGI moment quote unquote that is here that is causing the selling today in software. So let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as the hype button. The hype button is down there by the like button. You scroll all the way over to the three dots. You hit the three dots, it'll say hype. Hit the hype button to help push this video out to more people that need to see it on a day like today for software stocks. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next
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