Is the Market Ready for a Breakout? | Tim Knight Analysis
- Retorno do vídeo
- —
- Chamadas
- 19
- Compra / Venda
- 0 19
- Publicado
Recomendações
Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.
-
Entrada $92,03 09 set 2026Atual $92,03 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…nd the move has been from a percentage standpoint decent. Um, but as I've said over and over, this thing grinding down to something like 27 in the months ahead would make plenty of sense. So, this is down about 1%. Um, and that's good. Uh, I'm also short BYU, which is a big Chinese individual internet stock. It's down not as dramatically. Um it had a a big tumble yesterday though about 8% or so and um it tried to recover that earlier today but we remain weak on this and I remain short on this …
I'm also short BYU
Contexto extraído por IA Um, I'm also short BYU, which is a big Chinese individual internet stock.
-
Entrada $80,76 09 set 2026Atual $80,76 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…that the rising interest rates are having the suffocating effect on housing and and related industries that I had suspected. Um LAR for we haven't seen this in in many many weeks but this was this giant top on this and it's taking time but it has been breaking down um sloppily but we do have you know these are lower highs these are lower lows little by little. Um, so we've broken down from uh roughly a $100 um neckline to around $80 right now. And if you told me this was a $30 stock next year, I woul…
it has been breaking down
Contexto extraído por IA LAR for we haven't seen this in in many many weeks but this was this giant top on this and it's taking time but it has been breaking down
-
Entrada $490,00 09 set 2026Atual $490,00 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Here's Axon Enterprises, which has been performing pretty nicely.
Contexto extraído por IA Here's Axon Enterprises, which has been performing pretty nicely. Rare is the day that it goes up.
-
Entrada $63,01 09 set 2026Atual $63,01 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…down on this one almost 2% on the day. Uh Shake Shack, I'm talking about this one almost every day because it's behaving itself so nicely. We had a strong open yesterday and it wound up down hard with a bearish engulfing pattern. We've got another drop today on this. Um, not not that it matters, but okay. PF72 it says. So, got to sell a lot of shakes. Um, but yeah, that one's going all right. Uh, applied opto electronics ai. And even though like the socks the um SOXX is up, there are some semiconductor…
another drop today on this.
Contexto extraído por IA Shake Shack, I'm talking about this one almost every day because it's behaving itself so nicely. We had a strong open yesterday and it wound up down hard... another drop today on this.
-
Entrada $107,93 09 set 2026Atual $107,93 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…. Uh, applied opto electronics ai. And even though like the socks the um SOXX is up, there are some semiconductors that are behaving themselves nicely and uh this one's down almost exactly the same as as Shake Shack for some reason. But uh another gap trade on this one. And there's the there's the uh gap there. Uh Accenture ACN down more than 1%. slipping below the gap that was created between uh Friday and Tuesday's sessions. Um ALB Alber Marl, it's my life's goal to say that name. Um this one is also a …
another gap trade on this one.
Contexto extraído por IA applied opto electronics ai. ... another gap trade on this one.
-
Entrada $175,80 09 set 2026Atual $175,80 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
slipping below the gap that was created between Friday and Tuesday's sessions.
Contexto extraído por IA Accenture ACN down more than 1%. slipping below the gap that was created between Friday and Tuesday's sessions.
-
Entrada $574,29 09 set 2026Atual $574,29 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…retrospect August 5th kind of spoiled it all. And we're pretty much trading where we were trading back on August 5th but um there wasn't any follow through on this. Fell, retrace, fell some more and it's been dinking around ever since. Um, I do have a short position on this. I've tightened it up because I do not trust this creature. Strictly speaking, a sensible stop-loss would be uh up there where that um price gap is. However, uh I have shortened the leash up on this to simply be above yesterday's high. Um s…
I do have a short position on this.
Contexto extraído por IA Um, I do have a short position on this.
-
Entrada $125,91 09 set 2026Atual $125,91 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
… the gap that was created between uh Friday and Tuesday's sessions. Um ALB Alber Marl, it's my life's goal to say that name. Um this one is also a gap based trade and both yesterday and today got close to the gap but did not violate it and we're down 2% on this one and I really like the look of that on the long term. Um, Carvana, this one, um, yes, it's down over 1%. It sure is clinging though to that $75 zone. Uh, it's a it's it's a beautiful, beautiful setup, but it it hasn't broken down yet, and t…
we're down 2% on this one
Contexto extraído por IA ALB Alber Marl, it's my life's goal to say that name. ... we're down 2% on this one and I really like the look of that on the long term.
-
Entrada $73,43 09 set 2026Atual $73,43 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
… got close to the gap but did not violate it and we're down 2% on this one and I really like the look of that on the long term. Um, Carvana, this one, um, yes, it's down over 1%. It sure is clinging though to that $75 zone. Uh, it's a it's it's a beautiful, beautiful setup, but it it hasn't broken down yet, and that may never break down. Um, I'm just kind of waiting impatiently for it, but for weeks here, it's just grinding around beneath uh that dash red line. Uh, I've just got a hunch that there will there…
it's a beautiful, beautiful setup
Contexto extraído por IA Carvana, this one, yes, it's down over 1%. It sure is clinging though to that $75 zone.
-
Entrada $653,69 09 set 2026Atual $653,69 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…y pre-market that we're going to see just a huge gap down on that, but I don't know if it's going to be weeks or months for that to happen. But as it stands now, it's a really beautiful setup. Uh, Meta has had a tremendous up day today and I shorted it today. Um, it is a small loser so far and I've got a pretty tight stop. Uh, so it it may well get stopped out before the end of the session. I don't know. But it's based on that price gap. But this this has thanks to uh their introduction of the…
I shorted it today
Contexto extraído por IA Meta has had a tremendous up day today and I shorted it today.
-
Entrada $3,00 09 set 2026Atual $3,00 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
… the gap, is get above this this most recent lower high. That is probably a smarter place to put the stop. Um, and uh, we'll see, but I just want to take advantage of of selling into the strength there. Um, Open Door is down over 3% today, breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup. Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one. the hyperscaler um financiers Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%. So lot of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down ove…
breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup
Contexto extraído por IA Open Door is down over 3% today, breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup.
-
Entrada $10,86 09 set 2026Atual $10,86 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…gh. That is probably a smarter place to put the stop. Um, and uh, we'll see, but I just want to take advantage of of selling into the strength there. Um, Open Door is down over 3% today, breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup. Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one. the hyperscaler um financiers Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%. So lot of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video thi…
Blue Owl down almost 3%.
Contexto extraído por IA Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one.
-
Entrada $18,28 09 set 2026Atual $18,28 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…t want to take advantage of of selling into the strength there. Um, Open Door is down over 3% today, breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup. Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one. the hyperscaler um financiers Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%. So lot of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video this weekend that talked about this as an existing short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautif…
Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%.
-
Entrada $17,22 09 set 2026Atual $17,22 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…at right triangle setup. Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one. the hyperscaler um financiers Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%. So lot of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video this weekend that talked about this as an existing short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautifully. Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too. I'm also think I'm going to short CCL. I'…
Planet Labs PL down over 3%.
-
Entrada $259,76 09 set 2026Atual $259,76 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…t of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video this weekend that talked about this as an existing short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautifully. Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too. I'm also think I'm going to short CCL. I'm not showing it here, but Carnival as a as a companion short. Shopify, another good hit, 5 a.5% down like so. Um, yesterday a an attempt to open um it actually still fell …
Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%.
Contexto extraído por IA Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too.
-
Entrada $22,70 09 set 2026Atual $22,70 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…rs market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video this weekend that talked about this as an existing short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautifully. Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too. I'm also think I'm going to short CCL. I'm not showing it here, but Carnival as a as a companion short. Shopify, another good hit, 5 a.5% down like so. Um, yesterday a an attempt to open um it actually still fell at the open, but it basically opened at its high and fell all day…
I'm also think I'm going to short CCL.
Contexto extraído por IA I also think I'm going to short CCL. I'm not showing it here, but Carnival as a as a companion short.
-
Entrada $126,79 09 set 2026Atual $126,79 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…sting short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautifully. Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too. I'm also think I'm going to short CCL. I'm not showing it here, but Carnival as a as a companion short. Shopify, another good hit, 5 a.5% down like so. Um, yesterday a an attempt to open um it actually still fell at the open, but it basically opened at its high and fell all day and now it's falling even more. So, I really like how Shopify is acting. And the last these individual ones, ano…
Shopify, another good hit, 5 a.5% down like so.
-
Entrada $72,36 09 set 2026Atual $72,36 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…pen um it actually still fell at the open, but it basically opened at its high and fell all day and now it's falling even more. So, I really like how Shopify is acting. And the last these individual ones, another kind of space related one, Viaat down almost five 5%. And um yeah, just this is the trading I like. Just update those stops, look for fresh opportunities, housekeeping, boring stuff. Uh just to wrap up here at the end of my sitcom, uh the cubes are down a little and uh the past 3 days have be…
Viaat down almost five 5%.
Contexto extraído por IA the last these individual ones, another kind of space related one, Viaat down almost five 5%.
-
Entrada $51,15 09 set 2026Atual $51,15 09 set 2026Resultado +$0,00vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
Citar esta recomendação Ver vídeo original * †
Contexto da transcrição original
…n they had a big management change and a lot of uh a lot of um announcements about the new corporate direction and that that did tremendous things for the stock cuz it more than doubled the stock price. That's starting to burn off now. So, we're down on this one almost 2% on the day. Uh Shake Shack, I'm talking about this one almost every day because it's behaving itself so nicely. We had a strong open yesterday and it wound up down hard with a bearish engulfing pattern. We've got another drop today on this. Um, not no…
we're down on this one almost 2% on the day.
Contexto extraído por IA Cracker Barrel CBRL. ... That's starting to burn off now. So, we're down on this one almost 2% on the day.
Transcrição Completa
Let's get into the charts together, dumb through them, share my updated thoughts on them. Um, as a reminder, I got 30 short positions. Um, I think they're almost I think maybe one's up a little today. It's it's almost unanimous though. It's pretty red screen. And some of them are real standouts. So, we'll we'll walk our way toward those. A few of them, not all of them, of course. Um, starting with the spider down a little bit, not even half a percent. Uh, we are still super high, but uh, we are getting toward the lower portion of this range that we've been in ever since here on the 4th. So, about a solid month um, more uh, of being in this range. And as I say on a daily basis, what we would need to do is crack this uh gap at uh 758.58 in order to have a truly failed bullish breakout. And um yeah, we're getting close. Um I don't know if anybody cares about the PPI or if that helps illuminate what the CPI probably will be. Um, but it seems to me Friday is kind of the day that could be decisive and get us out of this tiresome range that we've been in. Uh, although in spite of that weary wandering, uh, there are still plenty of opportunities cuz as I keep saying, we are in a stock pickers market now, which is kind of my thing. Um, so yeah, there's the spider just third red bar in a row, slipping lower and undoing the wretched rally we had on Thursday, as well as the one we had to endure on last Wednesday. So, those are all poof. Uh, the diamonds, which is kind of my uh go-to chart these days. It's my biggest short position. I entered it at I don't say this often, but I had nearly perfect timing on this entry right at that trend line. And I mentioned it on this show cuz um one fun thing about doing this is that I show you charts and sometimes it's like hm that's cool. And so like the moment the show is done I rush off and make the trade. And that's what happened with the diamonds. Um it was evident to me what a clean setup that was. So I shorted it um on Thursday when I last uh when I was last show last week and then was down down and so I've just been tidying up the stop all along the way. the stop now I've I've tightened up to um just above yesterday's low. In other words, the price gap, the small caps I kind of missed the boat on. I uh this was a goodlook setup yesterday. I didn't do anything about it. Oh well. Um we're down nicely on this 1.38% on IWM and it's just been kind of meandering. I mean, we're trading now exactly where we were trading on May 28th. Uh, so months and months are just grinding around and here we are again. So net net from like what is that? Memorial Day to Labor Day. Zilch. Um, so but we have been slipping following this lifetime high uh on the 14th. It's just been breaking down from there. uh overseas em down uh roughly the same as the spider right now. We had a recovery high yesterday and it's not a very clean chart. We we've basically been channel bound on this and I'm not trading it. Um but it's u highish now and what it would take would be a um a real smackdown below that trend line. We teased it for one day here. We closed below it for a day and then just shrugged and went right back higher. Um but this is um kind of even more indeterminant than most charts right now. Um EFA is down a little more lustily over 1%. It has broken this trend line although as we just saw that's not necessarily you know a slam dunk in terms of what happens next. But we've got a new price gap here based on uh yesterday and today we've got a failure of this trend line for the first time since the uh Iran war low and uh it's a step in the right direction. So we were banging around here for a while and then today we we finally slipped hard lower. So we'll see if we can get can get any kind of follow through to that. Um I'm not in that either. However, I am in some other overseas things on the short uh side. Um uh this is not one of them, but I'm going to lead you to a different one. This is South Korea, EWY. It's still a very messy chart. It's up 75%. Semiconductors bottomed uh with with you know, Leopold Ashen Brener, if nothing else should be remembered for basically getting washed out of the market at the exact bottom. Um, so on July 29, that was the bottom. We get down on the EWI to 142 and we're almost at 200 now. So, um, that's what 60% something like that increase in the matter of just a few weeks. Um, the pattern is a big fat mess and uh, I'm not trading it. However, and paradoxically, I have shorted today Ko um RU Koru, which is the triple bullish leveraged on the exact same market just because I like the chart better. It is still a clean setup. It's got enough. Keep in mind this this is a tiny trade. This is not this is not like a big deal like the diamond trade. This is a small trade just cuz it's such a clean setup and cuz it can get kind of fun when it moves the right direction. But anyway, I have shorted for the first time uh Koru and the stop on this is just above 26. The price gap itself is at 25.99 and we'll see how that goes. Um, I also uh always want to highlight SMH, which is actually down a tiny tiny tiny bit right now. Um, I sort of walked through this yesterday illustrating that the clarity that this pattern brought us was kind of laid waste pretty much the the in retrospect August 5th kind of spoiled it all. And we're pretty much trading where we were trading back on August 5th but um there wasn't any follow through on this. Fell, retrace, fell some more and it's been dinking around ever since. Um, I do have a short position on this. I've tightened it up because I do not trust this creature. Strictly speaking, a sensible stop-loss would be uh up there where that um price gap is. However, uh I have shortened the leash up on this to simply be above yesterday's high. Um so that's SMH and down just a couple hundredths of a percent right now. Um the other flavor of ETF socks for some reason well the reason is because it's different components and different waitings but is the same sector so it's a little bizarre they would be so different but it's up over half a percent and uh here again um the the gap is the important thing up there. Um this is actually a somewhat cleaner chart than the SMH, but um they both their kind of glory days on this ended with Leopold's um handing over all his positions to Ken Griffin back on the end of July. Um another item that I have been interested in for a very long time continues to be China FXI. We've talked about this for weeks and weeks and weeks. Um this is a longerterm trade. I think it'll take many months to play out. Um we can see here that this is the sum the sixth instance um of of a major reversal. And I've highlighted each of these in pink. Here's the most recent one. And since the peak here, not the lifetime peak, but the peak for this cycle back in October of last year, we've just uh hammered out a whole series of lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, and we had annoyingly um a big pop on um I guess that'd be Friday. Um, but that was wiped out the very next trading day, that is yesterday, and we're even lower now. So, we're at a new multi-month low at this point. Now, this doesn't move dramatically. You know, we can put on the scary music with month uh multi-month low. We're talking about a dollar, you know, from tip to tail here, but it's not a very expensive instrument, and the move has been from a percentage standpoint decent. Um, but as I've said over and over, this thing grinding down to something like 27 in the months ahead would make plenty of sense. So, this is down about 1%. Um, and that's good. Uh, I'm also short BYU, which is a big Chinese individual internet stock. It's down not as dramatically. Um it had a a big tumble yesterday though about 8% or so and um it tried to recover that earlier today but we remain weak on this and I remain short on this having tightened up the stop to that dash red line as usual. Uh another country I'm shorted just yesterday and hadn't touched for eons was Brazil and it's down about 1 and 2/3%. Cool. EWZ. Um, and I highlighted this one yesterday. Um, it wasn't exactly a high conviction trade. You could probably hear from the tone of my voice, but it was like, give it a shot. See how it goes. And it's going fine at the moment. Um, the stop loss was up there at this distant price gap. Not quite a shooting star, but you know, pretty decent little reversal pattern there. We've gapped lower on this. So, uh, it's particularly encouraging that this is down because oil is up a lot and the biggest component of EWC is PBR, which is, you know, their big oil outfit. And I would have assumed that oil strength would flow right into EWC, but it has not. We're down sharply on this. Maybe it's politically driven. I You don't need to know. Neither do I. It's just a chart. as I say so often like that all all knowledge that can be had is already built into the chart. There's no reason to overthink it. There's no reason to research it. There's no reason to know what the company even does or even what their name is. I just need a ticker symbol and lines on the screen. Um, you know, why bother? The hard work's been done for you. It's already in the chart. So, but I have it this is Brazil. So, there you go. Um so down we go on that. Um okay so USD JPY um this is the um cross rate between the US dollar and Japanese yen. It's down again quarter of a percent. Um and I let me just caution myself here. I want to see because I'm I'm not a forex guy. Yeah that it does in Okay, so this looks live. Um, Scott Bessant has made a big show of his intervention in this. Um, as I understand it, the United States is buying uh a ton of yen so that Japan stays in our good graces and doesn't dump our bonds. So, it's sort of like, you know, we I scratch your back, you scratch mine kind of thing. So, um, the it's working. The US dollar is diminishing in value versus the yen. Um big plunge here and today's not as dramatic but as you can plainly see by these bars and these bars here it has been working. Now over the long haul it's not gigantic but um this is a pretty nice head and shoulders top and we may well break down hard away from this. It's absolutely possible. Um, I will say though, if the idea is to goose US Treasury bond prices and keep interest rates lower, it ain't working. Um, not past a few hours at least. Um, here is the ZB, which I'm a long-term bear on, and this is breaking down. It continues to break down. Uh, you were not going to reverse that pattern. There's nothing bullish about this chart at all. And even though we're in our seventh year of this bare market, there could well be an eighth, a nth, a 10th, an 11th, and a 20th year of this bare market, um, is just getting clobbered because the notion of giving cash to a country that has $40 trillion in debt and is paying out over a trillion dollars in interest every year and has deficits as far as the I can behold. And it's not really getting people too hyped up about sending those checks in. So the bonds continue to weaken and interest rates are going up. And so we see this reflected in TLT down half a percent. Um and sloppily breaking down from from this action up here. Um and here again this is all being done in the midst of a very um especially divisive political cease and a political environment. And as I as I'll say probably for the next 55 days minus weekends um that all changes on election day because the the incentive to do these interventions is greatly greatly diminished. Um and months ago or at least many weeks ago when I did my kind of election year overview that was kind of the three phases I was talking about you know pre-election and interregnum and the post uh swearing in. So, we're in the pre-election now and so all the um positiv positive actions that uh the government can take to try to keep rates down and try to keep the equity markets elevated will be uh exhausted and not necessary really um after the election's over. So, uh let's watch for that. Um I will say that the rising interest rates are having the suffocating effect on housing and and related industries that I had suspected. Um LAR for we haven't seen this in in many many weeks but this was this giant top on this and it's taking time but it has been breaking down um sloppily but we do have you know these are lower highs these are lower lows little by little. Um, so we've broken down from uh roughly a $100 um neckline to around $80 right now. And if you told me this was a $30 stock next year, I would not fall out of my seat. I standing desk, so I can't do that. But it's going to I think it's going to go a lot lower. The other related one, I just from memory was trying to think about house stuff. We've talked about floor and decor. Another one. You can see that how sharply that's fallen away from its rounded top as well. Uh getting over to the world. I thought today, you know, this is I I did a 15-minute show for the longest time. And often times the show before mine would kind of run a little long and so net net probably turned out to be like a 12minute show. And a 30 minute show is a lot more is a lot longer. It's a lot more tiring, requires a lot more prep work. I enjoy it, don't get me wrong. I have a ball with it. I it occurred to me this is like a sitcom is the length of a sitcom, but it's longer than a sitcom because I have no commercials. Sitcoms are usually like 22 minutes. So, it's kind of like three companies with just John Ritter. Um, so yeah, if if I seem to lag at the end, that's why I'm doing a sitcom every single day. Um, Bitcoin. This is key, I think, to finding out when on earth we can get aggressively bullish on metals. Um, I'm still waiting and I really hope we can get that tumble that I'm looking for down to say 67,000, which I think would easily get gold down to say 4,200 to make it a more appealing setup. But uh this is still has the prospect the possibility of being a huge huge top. It has been way too strong for me to monkey around anymore with IBIT or BITI and short positions against crypto etc. Far too strong. Having said all that, the crypto credit is not out of the woods. This could still be a huge huge top. And going back to the political environment, um, uh, should the election go a certain way, the impetus to, uh, support the crypto industry will be greatly diminished and that could have a deletterious effect on this. How's that for a sanitized way to put it? Um, so yeah, um, I'm not messing with it, but Bitcoin, yeah, like going to be $40,000 next year. Absolutely. Sure. Um, but I'm not banking on it. Um, gold itself is up about a percent. I'm not jumping into it. Um, on this I'd love to see it get down to say around where that rectangle base was. Um, miners also are very high still and it's just it it doesn't smell like a great long setup right now to me. It seems pricey. So, I'm not doing anything with it. Uh, a couple other features just to touch touch upon. Crude oil uh continues its rally. Uh, we're up over 3% on this. Zooming in, you can see that um this trend line here was a was just such a beautiful long-term presentation because it was for years resistance all the way down all the way down. This was the C change here. This was the the blast higher which of course was the um the the uh not resumption but the commencement of hostilities explosive move complete collapse and wouldn't you know it support at the trend line and they talk about regime change. This is a roll change with the role change from resistance to support. Look at that. Is that beautiful? Zoom in on that. Absolutely to the penny. Bang. Perfect. And then we're pushing into a new uptrend. Now, I haven't drawn it, but you can kind of see the ascending channel um pushing off of that. And Brent is already in the triple digits again. And I I uh suspect that this uh the more standard CL setup will also be in the triple digits real soon. Now, um and I'm a little surprised given this enormous lift that it's not been more destructive to the market, but it hasn't. Uh the other futures item uh is copper lifetime high. I read yesterday that um pennies from 1982 and before or maybe it was just pre-1982, but those pennies are worth almost a nickel now. Intrinsically there's about 4 1/2 cents of copper in a penny. Um that's kind of amazing. And this shows uh the tremendous lift that copper has turned off. I uh um yeah, I don't know the reasons behind this, but it's been an an amazing move. Uh what else is going on? Well, you know what? I talked about my short positions. I've got all these all these zillions of shorts going on. Let me show you about not 30 of them, but maybe a dozen favorites from that. And uh those of you who have watched me more than one day know that know the routine. I'll zoom in on the most salient part. And I've placed a red dash line where I've got my own uh stop-loss order set. So here's Axon Enterprises, which has been um performing pretty nicely. Rare is the day that it goes up. So that's Axon. Uh Cracker Barrel CBRL. This one had a uh just an explosive move when they had a big management change and a lot of uh a lot of um announcements about the new corporate direction and that that did tremendous things for the stock cuz it more than doubled the stock price. That's starting to burn off now. So, we're down on this one almost 2% on the day. Uh Shake Shack, I'm talking about this one almost every day because it's behaving itself so nicely. We had a strong open yesterday and it wound up down hard with a bearish engulfing pattern. We've got another drop today on this. Um, not not that it matters, but okay. PF72 it says. So, got to sell a lot of shakes. Um, but yeah, that one's going all right. Uh, applied opto electronics ai. And even though like the socks the um SOXX is up, there are some semiconductors that are behaving themselves nicely and uh this one's down almost exactly the same as as Shake Shack for some reason. But uh another gap trade on this one. And there's the there's the uh gap there. Uh Accenture ACN down more than 1%. slipping below the gap that was created between uh Friday and Tuesday's sessions. Um ALB Alber Marl, it's my life's goal to say that name. Um this one is also a gap based trade and both yesterday and today got close to the gap but did not violate it and we're down 2% on this one and I really like the look of that on the long term. Um, Carvana, this one, um, yes, it's down over 1%. It sure is clinging though to that $75 zone. Uh, it's a it's it's a beautiful, beautiful setup, but it it hasn't broken down yet, and that may never break down. Um, I'm just kind of waiting impatiently for it, but for weeks here, it's just grinding around beneath uh that dash red line. Uh, I've just got a hunch that there will there will come a day probably pre-market that we're going to see just a huge gap down on that, but I don't know if it's going to be weeks or months for that to happen. But as it stands now, it's a really beautiful setup. Uh, Meta has had a tremendous up day today and I shorted it today. Um, it is a small loser so far and I've got a pretty tight stop. Uh, so it it may well get stopped out before the end of the session. I don't know. But it's based on that price gap. But this this has thanks to uh their introduction of the Muse AI engine lately. Had a big big rally. We are getting close to price gap. Like I say, it may bust that gap. What I bet it doesn't do though, even if it does bust the gap, is get above this this most recent lower high. That is probably a smarter place to put the stop. Um, and uh, we'll see, but I just want to take advantage of of selling into the strength there. Um, Open Door is down over 3% today, breaking down nicely from that right triangle setup. Blue Owl down almost 3%. Another good day for this one. the hyperscaler um financiers Pinterest good down day on this about 7 and a2%. So lot of nice uh lot of nice wins going on like I said stock pickers market uh Planet Labs PL down over 3%. Um I did a video this weekend that talked about this as an existing short position. Um and so this is behaving itself just beautifully. Royal Caribbean RCL down almost 2%. Break it down there, too. I'm also think I'm going to short CCL. I'm not showing it here, but Carnival as a as a companion short. Shopify, another good hit, 5 a.5% down like so. Um, yesterday a an attempt to open um it actually still fell at the open, but it basically opened at its high and fell all day and now it's falling even more. So, I really like how Shopify is acting. And the last these individual ones, another kind of space related one, Viaat down almost five 5%. And um yeah, just this is the trading I like. Just update those stops, look for fresh opportunities, housekeeping, boring stuff. Uh just to wrap up here at the end of my sitcom, uh the cubes are down a little and uh the past 3 days have been a snoozefest as you can see by these teeny little bars going on, but at least they're not green. XLK, which I am short, um is effectively unchanged today and my stop is anchored to that price gap like so. And then finally, uh there's the ES. We are down uh today as you know, but just to highlight this, this is the level we've got to break right at that green line um 7618 12. We need to slip below that and then we can call that a a truly failed bullish break, although it certainly took its time. Uh but like I say, whether it'll take tomorrow or even the next day remains to be seen. Anyway, that's it from me. A very good day, a very red day. And uh I don't know what tomorrow's going to be like, but Friday should be pretty dynamic. So, thank you for coming by and I will see you tomorrow. Bye.
Comentários 0
Entre para participar da discussão.
EntrarAinda não há comentários. Seja o primeiro a compartilhar sua opinião!