I Sold an Entire Position This Week. Here’s What I’m Doing With the Money

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for today. So over the past week we went down by another 4% whereas the S&P was down.56%. Midweek it looked much better. We're up 4.4. S&P was up 1.6. Market said forget about these gains. We're about to go down even more. And so in today's video we'll go over the usual technical analysis. The very exciting upcoming earnings week I got featured in the all-in podcast. We'll talk about the misinterpretation of my post and of course talk about what might or might not happen over the next couple of days. I'll start off with the earnings week. So on Monday, it's already a pretty interesting one. Apple reports Monday after the close. I think it's the first time that happens. Palanteer as well, although that's not new with Palanteer, of course, we are expected to see again a lot of growth across the board. Roku also reports on Semi, Fabrinet, air test system, all of that Monday after the close. On Tuesday, we already have some action before the open with Shopify. Shopify, as you know, it's not the cheapest name out there, but it is a high quality business. With Shopify, what are we expecting to see? Well, I'm expecting to hear more about the agentic side of things because Shopify is one of those companies that is always at the forefront of innovation. So AI agent shopping maybe they can already give us a number. As of right now certain companies gave us a couple of comments on it but they all said look it's still very very small. It's not really impacting our business. Let's see what Shopify says. After the close we have of course the big one for me and maybe for most of you as well and that's AMD. We'll talk a little bit more about AMD in a bit. AMD of course coming after Intel after that huge hit that happened on Friday. I am expecting a way more positive report from AMD compared to Intel. We also have Super Micro, Nvitas, Arista Network, a booking holdings, Astera Labs, all of that. Tuesday after the close. Wednesday before the open for me, a big one. And that's Uber. I'm still expecting Uber to report very good numbers, but I guess the market still wants to hear more about autonomous vehicles. Although, as you will see, it's probably not impacting the business as of right now. the delivery hero acquisition the implementation they already told us it's going to take a while so I'm still expecting a good report what will the stock do I don't know but this is again one of those cheap names out there company that does generate quite a lot of free cash flow moving to Wednesday after hours apploving stock that has been under pressure I know a lot of you are following or owning the name so that's going to be interesting if they can prove the market wrong or unfortunately maybe prove the market right another semiconductor name Qualcomm we have AMC, Fastly, Coherent, Cava, ARM, all of that. Wednesday after the close. Thursday before the open we have Unity, we have Celsius. Then after the close, we do have Lmentum applied opto electronics Cloudflare Atlassian Airbnb, Irene. And IN is going to be interesting with regards to this whole Neocloud sentiment, although it is the smallest one of the bunch. I think the week after that, we do have Nebus. So things are getting a bit more interesting in that space especially with the very bad sentiment right now around the names because as we've seen good reports do not get rewarded which brings me to this. So apparently I was featured for a little little segment here in the all-in podcast talking about uh Google's crash $500 billion wipeout in market cap and they pulled up my post right here. For the first time ever, Google search as a percent of revenue is now below 50%. And David Sachs interpretation was that I was bearish on Google. Little does he know that I've been showing this exact thing and this exact pattern for over a year now. And this is the exact reason why I loaded up on Google last year when everybody hated on the name and everybody was fearful that search is coming down. My thesis was not that oh search is getting so weak and that's why it's below 50%. No, it's the exact opposite. It's that Google Cloud is becoming so strong, grow so fast that it is just the inevitable thing that we're going to see is that the rest of the business will take over. And this is exactly what we've seen. Look, first of all, Google search and other revenue has seen an acceleration in growth the last couple of quarters and now the acceleration is well coming down and this quarter it only grew 12%. We already covered why that is. FX headwinds, some pull forward demand for Q2 because of the World Cup, and then the success of AI mode and the lack of monetization as of right now, plus also the year-over-year comparisons are getting tougher. But anyone with eyes and a brain would know that at the current or the previous growth rates, but especially also the current growth rates of Google Cloud, right? If we pull the growth rates up, of course, all of this is available on our favorite stock research platform, fiscal.ai, we can see it is quite clear. Look at this acceleration in growth. It has grown 102.6, let's call it 103% year-over-year. It's now a $30.7 billion business a quarter. I've said this before, I say it again. If this continues, it is not crazy to think that by the end of 27, Google Cloud and Search are the same size and maybe Google Cloud might even be a bit bigger than search. Crazy, right? But this is also one of the ways that you derisk from, oh, search is about to die and so Google goes down as a business. No, not at all. You're going to have a very strong search business. Still might not grow as fast as before, but that's fine. but still profitable and you're also going to have another business that is as big if not going to be much bigger also extremely profitable all inside the same company. That was my point and that has been my point for quite a while. Oh, and by the way, let's not forget let's not forget that Google is a business that generates $471 billion in revenue over the last 12 months and that still grew 22.2% 2% expect to grow 24% for the whole fiscal year. Then 27% next fiscal year and 22% in fiscal 28. This is a gigantic business that is still expected to grow above 20%. And yet and yet the market is punishing it right now because yes, okay, search has shown a little bit of weakness, but they gave us the explanation why. And what's funny is cuz we're going to talk about Reddit in a bit is that Reddit saw a weakness because AI mode and AI overview are so so successful. Alphabet saw also a weakness in the stock and in search because AI mode is so successful, but it lacks monetization, but they're working on that. So, two losers. Although one business definitely doing better, the other one gets hurt a bit more. The market sometimes doesn't make that much sense, but it is what it is. Google is trading at a forward PE. We're not looking at the trailing PE. We're looking at a forward one because the trailing, you know, these investments, this number is semi fake. But the forward one is now back to 20.2 times 20.2 times earnings for one of the best businesses on the planet. Yes, free cash flow is negative right now, but they do still have an insane amount of cash. I do think that by the end of 27, you're going to see a Google, a meta, these types of companies generate free cash flow yet again, but as of right now, yes, we're not surprised to see negative free cash flow. Again, all of this is available to you on fiscal.ai. If you use my link, you'll get 15% off. Last thing here before we move on, as of right now, the analysts are expecting free cash to remain negative until until the last quarter of fiscal 27. Although you have to know that this quarter they did get impacted by the European Commission fine. So the free cash flow hit would have been smaller. Moving on to some TA, we start off with Alphabet. So Alphabet of course did drop under $300 per share. Closed the week at $279, sits above the weekly 100 support floor of $264 per share. The main buy zone is between 270 and 285. As for Rocket Lab, not much movement there since last week. So, still in the main buy zone, still in the accumulation area. So, did see the stock actually go up. Still in a buying zone, still at the support area right now, although the ceiling sits just above $17 per share. Extremely macro driven this one. As for Amazon, yeah, we've seen this above and below 250 for quite a while. So here as well nothing has changed. Meta did drop and sits below their 50 weekly ceiling of $630. The main buying zone as you know even at this price right now even if the main buy zone is between 600 and 625 615 or 600 it is extremely extremely undervalued. New just like Marcado Libé took a big big hit because of the Brazilian election but as you know doesn't make that much sense. They've been through a lot of turbulence over the past decade plus. Marcado Libé especially that didn't stop the business to go up and to the right. And so to me an overreaction here $11.16 per share for new of course still yet to report their quarterly figure. So if you want to wait it's always an option. Netflix failed to stay above $17 per share. So we're back in the low60s. Support area is at $60. We're now at 62. Nebuse of course high beta name. Nebus will report the quarterly figures I believe November 12th before the market open. So expect a expect a big move. Expect a very very big move. We are currently in a buy zone of 148 158 ceilings at 160. The weekly 100 base sits at $16 per share. So another another big big leg down. As for Reddit, Reddit took a huge hit on Friday. very big hit. It's an overreaction, but I'll explain in a bit why why the market did it and why I haven't bought more shares as of right now. So, the support area sits at $88, which is right under the price we're at right now. The resistance sits way, way higher, $153 and $171 per share. I don't think we're going to get there anytime soon unless we do get a big AI data licensing deal. Again, more on Reddit in a bit. Axon didn't really move that much from last week's not a cheap names, just less expensive than before. Marcado Libé, just like new, took a big hit because of the Brazilian election, sits right under their 200 weekly ceiling. Main base support area sits at 1,600. We're now at 1624. Looking at Uber, weekly 200 ceiling sits at $2 above where we're at right now. First resistance $72. Structural base support at $60. Uber reports on Wednesday. So, expect a move by then. Broadcom also didn't really move much week over week. Still extremely undervalued in my opinion. Support area closer to $39. We are currently in the buying zone. Corwe as you know in my opinion on paper also quite undervalued based on the projections. Of course here with corre execution is key. Corre will report in the next two weeks or so. Main resistance is of course much higher above $80 per share. Support area at $50. We're now at 54. And then with regards to AMD in the reports on Tuesday, we're at $54 as of right now. Resistance wall $526. Support area the daily 200 sits at 402. So again, a big leg down. Not expected, but just so you know. Resistance point at the 50 daily, $542. Moving on to the portfolio. So, first up, the two options positions outside of it. The PayPal bull spread still still doing its job. Well, in the green there, the core reef one, of course, still in the red. Not much has changed over the past week. These two basically balance each other out. Now, I've been thinking about, oh, maybe I'll just close the PayPal bull spread in the green. use that money to go a bit more aggressive in the names that I already own, the names that are undervalued and that are under pressure as of right now post earnings report. And yeah, it's probably something that I will do. It's it's a nice position over 17K here. I could use it to just increase my cash balance ending 26 starting 27 could be an idea. Do I think that there is money to be made here with the PayPal bull spreads over the next two years? Yes, but there's definitely a lot of money to be made with the positions that I do own as of right now. Looking at this small trading account on ET Toro, you can follow it or copy. There's a link below. Of course, very much in the red. Started it at the worst possible moment. There is Broadcom, Nebus, Meta, SoFi, Applied Opto Electronics, Voyager, and a very small position that became much smaller on Friday of Reddit. What's the difference there? It's a small amount here just to see if we can really beat the market by being a bit more aggressive. Moving on to the main course here and this is where I'll explain why I completely sold out of a position of a company that I do like very much. So we still have Nebus at number one despite it taking a big hit. Sofi number two, AMD number three, then Google 4, Meta 5, Rocket Lab, Oscar Health now a 5.1% cash position DLO Palanteer Micron New Uber, Broadcom, Robin Hood, Axon, Reddit, which is down 44%, Nvidia, and then that small position in Netflix. And so, you've been following the portfolio, you already noticed that there's one position that's not there anymore, and that position is called Rubric. Now the reason why I sold Rubric is is very simple actually. So Rubric is a good company but the valuation is stretched. When I see the other names I own that are down and undervalued. I don't see why I shouldn't consolidate into them. I'll probably have the opportunity to come back into Rubric when the price is right. I will of course continue to cover the stock moving forward. Rubric was a gain of almost 90%. So very happy with that. But yeah, Rubric, when I look at the stock, it has done very well this year, but it is now a $25 billion company. Of course, not profitable, but just like with many cyber security names, as of right now, that's really not the issue. It does generate free cash flow, but it's not profitable. It is very expensive. $25.7 billion company generated $1.54 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. of course still expected to grow above 20%. But still they have a PEG ratio of 12.1. As much as I like the company, if I look at the I mean even if I we go and have a look here at the expected growth rates for this business over the next couple of years, still a very good business that's expected to grow a lot, right? As you can see, let's do annually. So we can see all the way to fiscal 29. That's their fiscal 29. We can see this fiscal year for them. It's fiscal 27 28.4% then 21.5 then another 21.1%. So expected to grow above 20% over the next couple of years but that means that a $25 billion company today is expected to generate 2 let's call it $5 billion fiscal 29. It's still it's a 10 times sales multiple couple of years out. Now let's say they beat it. Let's say they go and generate then $3 billion maybe $3.5 billion by then it still is quite expensive you are paying quite a lot of the future growth of this business and so again I do think that when Rubric will report it will be a good one but maybe not good enough and here just like with the forinet for example foret got absolutely crushed and foret is not even as expensive as a rubric right if we look at forinet over the last couple of days. Look at this. It went down by 25%. And Forinet is not as expensive as Rubric. Great companies, but as of right now, purely looking at my portfolio, yes, I did want to raise cash. I use that position to raise the cash profile. And then over the next couple of days, we'll redeploy that cash into some of the companies right here. Every time I think about, oh, maybe we should buy this, maybe we should buy that. I always go back to maybe I just should own more Meta. Meta absolutely crushed it. Meta showed that their advertising business is much better than everybody else in the industry. Yes, it's going to be bigger than Google. Imagine that. And so, and by the way, Google also if it stays at 280, I'll probably buy more shares. But if you want to focus on the smaller positions, a Broadcom that's definitely also on my buy list. a new holdings as well because I do think that a new a SoFi I do want to have more financials or I mean so is already 10% here but nonI let's say related names directly I do think should deserve a bit more attention for me exiting 2026 but Reddit Reddit is a position and I'm down 44.2% 2%. Why not add already? Lower that cost base. Well, why not add already because I'm down is not a good excuse for me to add to the name. The thesis is still the same, but the thesis has included the concerns and the concerns are real. The concerns have always been, can they actually get a new AI data licensing from Google, from Entropic, maybe from OpenAI as well? As of right now, we don't know. Can they stop the bleeding in their user base? can actually grow it. That's the thing because as of right now, monetization of the business is not a problem. Average revenue per user goes up because you have a nice solid base. But that's good for the short run. For the long run, you would need to grow your user base. And if you cannot, then at least get paid for the loss of traffic. But if you cannot do this and that, it is a problem. Now, of course, in Q4, they're testing out in non US markets the required logged in experience, which is something that we've seen on X, on Instagram, on LinkedIn. So, this is not something new. And by the way, for everybody say, "Oh, this is bad user experience." Yeah, maybe the first time, but once you're logged in, you're logged in. Just say remember me and whatever and you'll be logged in automatically. So, it's a first time pain in the ass, but then should be should be okay. And for them it makes sense because they can monetize logged in users much much better than logged out. It's also send maybe a message to Google say look if you want to steal some traffic from us well either pay up or your answers are not going to be as good as they were before because we know that AI mode AI overviews are a success for Google and so Reddit needed an answer for that. So right now it is more on the I'll wait. I'll wait and see. On paper, yes, very cheap, undervalued for sure, but I rather wait for a catalyst here. As for the rest, the Netflix position, the Netflix position is down 27.5%, of course, a small position, but still I'm down $2,000 here. Still a position worth around 5,400. Could I use the 5,400 to put it in something else? Yes. 8,000% can put it into something that would probably go up much faster than a Netflix. That's also something that I'm thinking about consolidating the portfolio as we exit 2026. And the reason why I'm doing this right now is because we got hit is because the portfolio is down 15% in a month. And so a lot of the names are not trading at very attractive prices, which is why we make changes. Like I said, I'm not married to any of these stocks here. It might seem so, but I'm not. If I see better opportunities, I'll hit the sell button. Thank you very much. Take the loss. Doesn't matter. We'll put the money into something else. Something that will probably go up faster than another position. Purely because one name has doubts and the other one just got hit because of headlines. And as I said, just because I sold Rubric doesn't mean I will not cover it anymore. I will continue to cover Rubric. If I sell Netflix, I'll continue to cover Netflix. Same with Reddit. Same with all the rest here as well. Micron is another name. Micron is another name where you're starting to think about, okay, this name is cheap, but what if it stays cheap forever. Maybe this is dead money or money that pays me a dividend. Could be. I could use that money to put in something else. Something where there aren't that many questions about memory prices, memory shortages, what about this, what about that? As of right now, the micron position is is house money. So, doesn't really matter that much. But yeah, this is a name where you think about it once, twice, three times, four times, like why is this name trading at 10 times earnings? Doesn't make any sense. So, things to think about as we exit 26 into 27, maybe to position yourself a bit better, maybe to enter the new year with a bit more cash. So, this is the way I'm thinking about all of it. of course over the next couple of days. In the US, you have the midterms election. It seems like the Democrats are going to take the House and the Senate, but I do also think that a lot of people just put way too much attention on this. These things have happened every X years, right? Every four years, these things happen. And what happens with the market? What happens with the companies? Good companies perform well. Bad companies do not. I know, mind-blowing stuff. Also, historically, apparently, post midterm elections, markets actually go up. Premidter elections, markets go down. Okay, cool. We're also in in another environment right now. We have we've got this whole Iran stuff, inflation, interest rates. So, it's a bit different. But as of right now, it seems like 70% chance of a Democrat sweep. As for the Fed decision in December, not surprising. As of today, seems like we are getting that one rate hike, 25 basis points. hasn't really changed that much over the past month. We're here at a 70% chance. Of course, all of that available on Calio. You can scan the QR code. You look at the link in the description. Yes, it is a new partner of the channel. And I do understand the people that do not like it. But based on the number, seems like a lot of people do enjoy to use this new tool. Don't want to use it. That's completely fine. There is a link below. And by the way, I know that we are in a so-called bull market, but if I looked at the US Tech 100 over the past year, it's actually down 3.5%. Just saying. Lastly here on this whole prediction market stuff, so this was a pretty big deal earlier this week. So S&P, Dow Jones, and Kelshi have turned or are turning predictions on real world events like weather, elections, and economic shifts into a single live risk score, you can track and trade just like the S&P 500. And so instead of tracking specific events, just like with the S&P 500 where it bundled the best 500 companies, here you will have bundles for supply chain risk, inflation risk, AI, unemployment risk, things like that. Companies or businesses could use this as an insurance tool. So if X happens and I get affected by Y, maybe I should buy Y. And if Y doesn't happen, then my business just runs smoothly. It is interesting because Kalshi just like the others here started off pretty small, pretty questionable. But when you start looking at the regulations that they have to go through, you see the partnerships here with the S&P DJ Jones. Again, it seems like this is getting way more attention and it does not seem like it's going away anytime soon, even if it's highly speculative, just like options trading. And so to close this out, the portfolio is still up 20% year to date. S&P is up 10.8%. I was up way more than that, but I'm still beating the S&P as of right now, which is the goal for the long runs to beat the market in the long run. Of course, when I go up a lot, if the market goes down, then I experience a more aggressive draw down because of the companies that I own. But this is my portfolio. I feel like this is the portfolio I should have. Of course, I can make some tweaks here and there in order to outperform the market for the long run. And so, that's about it for me in today's video. It's going to be, yes, a hectic week, a hectic couple of weeks especially. So stick around for all of it. Stick around for the therapy sessions, for the earnings reviews, the live streams, you name it. We have been through this before. We're going to go through this again. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye. Hey, hey,