The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks (Emergency Update)

The market is about to enter one of the most volatile periods of the year and it is our jobs to know what are the upcoming risks as well as the opportunities that come with those risks. The Treasury absolutely panicked as the bond market crashes. We're going to talk about how the Treasury basically started printing money this week which led to Bitcoin and metals soaring. And this is the big story here. Bitcoin because it hasn't really had a run in almost a year. This also means TLT is near an all-time low. Is this an opportunity now for those looking to offload some risk into something that pays over 5% in terms of yield and dividends? Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole. These two are both volatility events that are coming up, but they do not compare to the midterm seasonality that we are likely going to see in September and October. I'm going to be sharing with you some very shocking data showing what type of VIX spikes and volatility spikes we see in September and October and how to prepare for those. And then we're going to go over a technical analysis of the current market and trades that we are monitoring as well as going over some of the stocks that I gave you guys in the last video and potential opportunities on top of what we already talked about. It has been a great month so far managing the portfolio with the core portfolio up 11% beating the S&P 500's 2% for the month of August. If you don't know who I am, my name is Z. I have a professional background in finance and in tech, and I break down the markets for you on a weekly basis right here on this channel. And because I am a trader and an investor, I try to fulfill both of those perspectives. Let's get right into it. So, the Treasury finally panics and caves as the bond market crashes. The US 30-year finally hit 5.33%. This is a level that we have not seen since 2007. Now, it's not just the US. If you look at all of the world economic superpowers Britain Germany Japan and the US, you could see that the 30-year government bonds are hitting highs, respective highs in all of those places. Now, I'm not going to go into this in detail as to why it is. I did write about it on X. Follow me on X for free trading and finance content daily. But it's a combination of inflation, oil prices, the new Fed, fiscal deficits, as well as the fact that AI spending and capex has really increased the amount of bond issuance that corporations are issuing. And that creates a really tough competitive playing field for bonds as investors have many other things to choose from to invest in that may provide a better yield or a competitive yield to bonds. But in response to this, what the US Treasury did was they increased the size of their buybacks beginning September 9th. So they are doubling their buybacks for from up to 2 billion to up to 4 billion in long-end treasuries. So Scott Bessant blinked first and is trying to bring yields down. And so far it looks like it has done the trick at least in the interimm going from 5.33 to 5.18 even though the $4 billion is really just a trivial figure in the grand scheme of things right the US has $40 trillion in debt but at least that may spur the the demand for bonds among bond investors and the hope is that it causes a ripple effect that gives the bond market a reprief and because of that Bitcoin and metals are now soaring. ing and gold has actually had a pretty decent 2025 and 2026, at least the first half of 2026. Bitcoin has been pretty atrocious since October of 2025, almost a full year. And Bitcoin has just been on a downtrend, going from a high of 126,000 to a low of 57,000. And now, as of the time of this recording, it has had its biggest day in a very long time with ETH having a 20% day and Bitcoin having an 8% day. Now, we want to see a close above this trend line. And if it does, this could bring a whole host of opportunities. Also, TLT is near an all-time low because TLT tracks the 20 to 30year bonds. You can see here that if you look at TLT on a monthly chart, this is back at the same levels that TLT was when it first started in 2002. Now, TLT pays about a 5.2% yield currently. That means if you buy it, you're going to get a 5.2% dividend yield. And that 5.2% is annual even though TLT pays a monthly dividend. But know that obviously the price can also fluctuate. So even though you're going to lock in 5.2% 2% the price can rally can tank etc. But I think with the Treasury signaling intervention here and that TLT is at an all-time low or at the all-time lows if one is looking to offload some risk from their portfolio and get a guaranteed 5%. This may be a good place to park some money. And here's what's coming up in terms of risks. Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole are coming up next week as of the time of this recording. Now, Nvidia has finally broke out if you watched my last video and we are now getting a retracement to the EMAs to the 921 EMAs here. And one of the things I want to check is does Nvidia move a lot during earnings? And you can see here that Nvidia actually overestimates its earnings move 77% of the time. Now, noobs always confuse the earnings move with whether it beats the it beats actual earnings and revenue. Nvidia always beats earnings and revenue. That's not what I'm talking about. The earnings move is different. So, every stock has a priced in earnings move based on the options market. So, if you see here, for instance, Nvidia's uh earnings move last time, the implied earnings move was plus - 5.9%. Because even when a stock beats earnings, it can go down. If it misses earnings, it can go up and vice versa. Right? So, it's this isn't signaling directionality. This is just saying that whatever Nvidia's earnings move is that's priced in, it misses the earnings move 77% of the time, meaning it it barely moves, which would make an earnings trade like an iron condor very suitable for Nvidia. But aside from finding an earnings trade, the other reason I want to know how Nvidia behaves on earnings is because if Nvidia does get to a spot where I do want to buy it, dollar cost average, if you're trading it, enter a trade, I want to know if earnings is a threat. And most of the time, 77% of the time, Nvidia does not beat the expected move. That means it does not move that much after earnings. Now, if you look at what is Nvidia's earnings move priced in for next week, it's plus -4.5. So, the options market is pricing in Nvidia being plus or minus 203 on the low end and on the high end 232. So for an earnings trade, I'll probably look for cash secured puts or iron condors, something where I can sell options and get paid off of that decay. So Nvidia earnings are on Wednesday, August 26th. But then right after that on Thursday and Friday, we have the Jackson Hole Symposium. Remember, there is no Fed meeting for August. The next Fed meeting is September. However, if you take a look at how the VIX behaves, shout out to who's this from Heisenberg on Twitter. If you look at how the VIX behaves on Jackson Hole meetings, most of the time we do tend to get a pretty big VIX spike because the market treats Jackson Hole commentary as if it's an FOMC. You guys remember from the days of Jerome Powell and currently the VIX is trading at near year-to-ate lows in the 14s. And in my opinion, this is currently very cheap insurance and one would be a fool not to grab VIX calls. Also, I was doing some research and the midterm seasonality, I dug into it a little more, even a little more than I typically do. The data that I found was shocking. Let me share it with you. I decided to take a look at August September OPEX during midterm years because we are in a midterm year. If we take a look at 2022, Wednesday, August 17th was Vixiration. Ironically, same day as today, the day that I'm recording this video, but in 2026. and September 16th was OPEX and you could see that the peakto trough decline was about 19%. Now you can make a case that we were in the middle of a bare market. Fine. Let's go to 2018. In 2018, OPEX was September 21st. And if we take a look, that was the exact high before the S&P dropped 20% into December before continuing higher. If we take a look at 2014, OPEX was on September 19th and that actually put in the high and the S&P 500 from peak to trough dropped about 10%. This is also why the seasonal low for volatility happens in July and then as we near August, September, October, you start to see the highest curve all year peaking by mid October. Now, September OPEX for 2026 is September 18th. And this also lines up with the midterm seasonality that I shared with you before, showing that midterm years tend to bottom later. But the return one year later is 100% positive, which is why I keep saying if we do get a dip, nothing is guaranteed. Again, this is more about being reactive than being predictive. one, preparing for what's coming by hedging, by raising cash, making sure that you are not going balls to the wall at all-time highs, and two, if you get the move, then you position yourself accordingly to take advantage of the asymmetrical returns. And just for shits and giggles, I went back to 98, which was also a midterm year, but 98 obviously was during the.com bubble, and the market absolutely was ripping. Even then, OPEX in 1998 was September 18th. And you could see here that shortly after OPEX, we put in a top and the market dropped another 13%. Of course, it started dropping here in July. Not exactly the same thing, but the phenomenon still exists. And this next data set, even though it's a small one, it's still an important, at least an interesting one if you overlay it with all the other data that we have. But in midterm years where July is red and August is green, September tends to be pretty shaky as well. All that is to say, I'm still bullish on the market. I still think that we will hit at least 8,000 by end of year. I'm bullish until at least Q2 of 2027. I do think if we do get a pullback, it will just be a typical midterm pullback. I don't think it will be anything systemic. Earnings have been absolutely crazy. And contrary to popular belief, the market, at least the technology market, is not overvalued. Currently, the 4 PE ratio for tech stocks is actually near a multi-year low. And earnings are so good on some stocks that if you take a look at a stock like Amazon, for instance, on Alphascope, you'll see that the current PE is even lower than the forward PE. That's because they absolutely killed this last round of earnings. So much so that it hasn't even had time. there's a a lag effect between the current PE and the Ford PE where the Ford PE is even higher than the current PE. That's because they absolutely crushed this last round of earnings here. You can see here Amazon's earnings per share came in at 5.82. So, I do think that the markets can continue to run into September OPEX and if we do get a volatility event, it will be a pretty quick blip and in my opinion, it will be an absolute buying opportunity. But with the VIX here near year-to-ate lows, I think that positioning oneself with one to threemon out VIX calls, not so far out of the money. I think that is a smart bet. And I'll be monitoring charts and gamma leading into September to potentially open up some puts as well on the indices. And of course, I send out my exact hedges on the Discord every single time. So, at the moment, in terms of trades, like I said, I'm looking at VIX calls for September, October volatility, not for anything in the the immediate term. I do think there is a trade on Nvidia earnings, basically selling options, trying to sell Theta and sell volatility. Things happen so fast, man. In my last video, our Nebia's position jumped almost 40% in a week, has since then retraced, and I think there could be a continuation on data centers here, but iron does report earnings August 27th. Chips are back at the 100 day moving average. I I don't know that this is a swing trade yet, but I do obviously like a buy on chips at the 100 day moving average. And like I said, I will update you guys with a more formal stock video on Sunday. But so far now, Hood, Uber, Nebius, these are all doing well. SMH, like I said, is just back at the 100 day moving average. Meta is the only red position in my entire portfolio. Obviously, I'm going to hold it for the long term. I have not yet started a position in app. And CEG is just slowly chugging along. And how could I forget the trolls favorite stock, Netflix. This is one that I kept getting clowned on uh when I bought it in the 70s. It's back over 80 now. And Uber seems to have broken out as well. Now, although I'm not swinging a ton of positions here because I don't I still don't think it is a swing friendly environment as you are seeing a lot of stocks not having that continuation that we saw after April. I am in a position currently a losing position on Dell here as it broke out above all-time highs and is retesting the 50-day moving average. But if we break below this then I'll end up closing the trade for a loss and I'll wait for this earnings gap to get addressed. Otherwise, I am looking for a continuation and a follow-through on Dell. And the AI portfolio is currently up 7 and a4% this month. So less than the core portfolio. It has had some major swings up and down, I'll tell you that much. but still beating the S&P 500 for this month. If you want to trade live with me every single morning at market open and you want access to all of my plays that I'm making, hedges, swings, investments, day trades, link is in the description below. It's really the best bang for your buck as we cover the markets entirely and you get to watch someone cover the markets every single day. Watch for my next video as I go over stocks individually in more detail. This that was not the focus of this video. Let me know what you are trading, what you are excited to buy, what buys have you made, what are you waiting to buy. Subscribe to the channel, hit that notification bell. Stay safe out there, traders.