Are You Watching This Bitcoin-Gold Signal?

There are some interesting interesting things cooking right now. Um the only big economic event this week is on Friday morning, which is the CPI, and that'll be the last big data point before I guess next Wednesday's uh interest rate uh announcement. Um but September, October, November, they're going to be interesting. There's a lot going on. Uh there we are. We are in totally in election season now. Um how many days are there left? Probably like uh 53 something like that. Um not a lot. Whatever the number is and some number of Tuesdays from now. Um and um that'll go be going hot and heavy the second half of October. Uh we've got Iran going on and weirdly the VIX is like low a little bit but uh the reality of the situation is vastly different than the VIX would indicate. The VIX is just like God has come down and said that nothing bad will happen ever again in our lifetimes. Amen. And then just disappeared. So it's insanely low. Uh this continues to be a stock pickers market. Um I have as of last week moved away from my semicondu I showed I think um is the most boring of all the Dow Dow 30 diamonds DIA biggest position by far and it has been behaving itself nicely. We're down over 600 points right now on the YM and um there's it's pretty red today on the old screen. Um I've got uh 30 different short positions and um but there is some murkiness out there which we're going to look at. There's some areas that I used to feel strongly about and now I'm kind of on the fence waiting for what's next. and waiting for what's next bores me because 99 out of a 100 folks I hear talk about the market, you know, and they they are terrified to reach any conclusion. Um, and they're certainly terrified. There's not a single person besides myself that dares talk about interview this morning with a guy who who he predicted 2000. He predicted 2008. You would think based on those laurels you'd be strident about this market. No, nobody is. Oh, no. It's got plenty to go. Plenty. It's a liquidity. There's lots of liquidity. It's plenty to go. We're not We're not in a bubble at all. There's no Dr. Doom left. Um, so yeah, everyone remains bullish and the VIX is basically crammed down to 14 or so. Um, they're not me. You know better. And maybe that's why some of you are here. So, let's look at some charts together. Um, and we start off with the big old bad spider, which uh is completely omnivorous. We are in the middle of a small trading range that we've been in for weeks. And um now maybe it does make sense that the VIX is at 14 because look at this thing. I mean, people's feet are falling asleep. We got to break out of we've got this price gap down here as support. We've got this lifetime high here as the resistance. We're basically in the smack dab in the middle of it. Uh we are down a little, which I appreciate. We're off uh well more than 30 points on the ES. So, it's moving the right direction. And uh the past couple of trading days uh have opened strong and traded weak at the end. So, a couple of red bars in a row have basically undone that wretched rally we had to endure on Thursday. Um, so that's good that that's been laid waste. Um, the diamonds, like I say, are my big hangup these days. The reason, as you may recall, uh, was this bar here really grabbed me was because we were right at the trend line. The trend line was damaged. It was broken. It was busted. Um, and we rallied on Wednesday and massively on Thursday and went right up against the underside of that broken. Sucky as this market is, that looks like an appealing riskreward ratio. I will short the Jesus out of it. Uh, which I did. And, um, Friday it looked like the aforementioned P Jesus was going in the right direction. And then today much more so. Um because look, the MQ is green right this second. It dares to be green in this market, but the Dow's having none of it. It's the market's totally bifurcated and um it is sinking nicely. You know, 1.13% isn't that huge a deal, let's face it. But I will happily take it as opposed to the incessantly puke green inq that we have to deal with. So, uh the next goal for this, which would be nice to conquer, would be right around doink there. that price gap. Um, we'll call that minor support right now. That's what we need to cut through to get things cooking. But I've tightened up the stop as I always do when things go my direction. Uh, to try to preserve as much profit as I can in case things go not sideways but up. Um, the endo itself like so um is well from this great distance. This goes back all the way back to the year 1900. Uh, you can see how high we are. You can see that we're above the um what is this you know nearly century long channel. Um yeah that's how high we are and people will still say um you know the market is cheap and it's time to buy and markets always go up and okay that's fine you do you. Um but uh we are exceptionally pricey right now. And the thing that I've encouraged you to keep in mind that I encourage myself to keep in mind is that um the current administration will do everything in their power to keep things propped up until after the election. Uh so even though historically and this absolutely historic fact that markets tend to go up strongly after midterm elections, I think this one has a bit of a twist to it. Um I I it seems to me that the pressure to not raise interest rates, the pressure to intervene in foreign currencies for the benefit of the bond market and even mentioning the military being used to uh keep interest rates down um and to keep equities propped up. All that pressure goes after Tuesday's election um however many days it is from today. You would think I would know this. I usually, you can usually wake me from sleeping. I can tell you how many days away it is, but I guess the long weekend has calcified my cranium. Um, but it's coming close. It'll be here before we know it. And I think the most intriguing uh bearish opportunities may well be after the election, which is total contradiction to all empirical data. Um, IWM, the small caps are down a little bit, about a fifth of a percent. Um minor resistance is like so got a little bit of a top little cute little top still in place right there. Uh the cubes are annoyingly up right now. I don't know why I'm so annoyed. I'm not short them or anything like that, but it's just bothersome. Um we're rangebound on this too. Huge range. Both price gaps. Uh support is down here at that price gap and resistance is up here like so. And more important resistance is up here with this descending trend line which last attempt we made to pierce it failed even to touch the thing. Uh this is where it got exhausted and then we slumped into this um this range we've been banging around for a while. Um jumping overseas for a moment. Actually a beg before we jump overseas. Uh keep your password handy. Uh this is the XLK. Uh resistance is at 190.10. 10 and I short I did enter a small short position in this one earlier today with that as a price stop like 190.15 as a stop and uh supports down here. So resistance bang and then support down here like so also bang. Now back to our international journey. Uh here's the emerging markets which are up about a third of a percent. Um this has been a pretty steady climb. We are in the zip code, the same zip code as lifetime highs. Um, minor resistance is at this price gap, which is a really substantial gap. Even from here, you can see what a big drop that was. Um, but that's resistance. Getting kind of long on the tooth, but I'm not going near this thing. Um, there is I don't follow Brazilian politics very closely, but I believe there's a big election going on now. Maybe they're maybe it's done and they're not counting the votes. I don't know, but there's a lot of excitement around Brazil at the moment. And we do have a rally going on with Brazil, but two and a quarter% on the EWC. Just for no great reason, I decided today I'll try shorting that, too. We got a price gap right here. So, I've shorted EWC with a with a stop loss at um 39.20. We'll see how it goes. It's just a shot in the dark. Um China is slumping today. Um, I wasn't here uh on Friday to grind my teeth about its its rally, but um it's all gone anyway. Um all the rally from Thursday and all the rally from Friday are already vanquished and the the broad picture here is still smoothly bearish. And uh we've got this recovery peak, lower high, lower high, lower high, down it goes. And as I've said, a target for me on this would be to fill that price gap at some point in the months ahead. Um, so yeah, that's a VEXI. There is an ETF which is designed to benefit from anybody who's bearish on China, which is Yang. And this is the triple bearish. And so it's having a good day today, up over over 7% on Yang. I don't know if there's a yen equivalent on this. There's bound to be. Um but uh just wanted to mention that bearish fund there. As usual, fairly thinly traded as a leveraged instrument. It tends to grind assets to hamburger uh over the course of time, but short-term is an interesting way to play things, especially if you've got an account that doesn't permit short selling. Um one item I am steadfastly bullish on, some of you may have seen my uh rocket roundup this weekend. We did a video that was published this weekend about um the space sector for lack of a better term and book here to some degree. But as a chart, it's it was a good-looking chart and it has finally today done what I've been hoping it will do for a long while, which is really conquered 150. Um as a reminder, 150 was a psychologically important level for a couple reasons. one big round number you know we humans are very comfortable with u based so 150 was an important threshold it was also pretty much the bottom of trading on their IPO day um I think the stock itself was priced at 135 for the trading in spite of all this wildness 150 was seen as an important floor until here It broke the floor back on uh July 10 and really started sinking badly. And uh the stock got cut I think by more than half if memory serves. Uh we got up to like 229 and change. Let's call it 230. And it got down to 104.83. It looked like it might go double digits, but it did not. So just sum that up. It lost more than half its value in a matter of weeks, but it recovered violently here and conked its head, yep, you guessed it, around 150. It failed to conquer it here. It did so again here and it tried again last Thursday on that big rally day. Kind of sneaked above a little bit, but it closed right at 150. Um, this was Thursday. Friday tried again, didn't do it. Today's the day. Finally got past 150. So I think this this clears the air quite a lot. Um and uh if if you said that before the year's over we were at I don't know 200 again, I I wouldn't be completely shocked. Um so but it's it's an important step. So the pentup energy from all that tension back here has been released. We're having a good day on SpaceX. Um Elon is also doing nicely and these guys are starting to kind of move together. Maybe people just assume this is like a warrant on SpaceX stock, but it too is up almost 4%. It's pushed past this price gap. Um, this blob of overhead supply is pretty tough. I'll put it this way. Um, given if you gave me a choice between the two stocks, I'd rather be in SpaceX because it doesn't have the baggage of all this just, you know, that that this is going to be tough to conquer. So, SpaceX is more of a more of an open field in terms of higher prices. Um, well, let's I I mentioned this bushel of short positions I've got. Let me let me show you some that I wanted to feature. Some you've seen, some you haven't. Um, let's just thumb through them in kind of alphabetical order. Um, Abbott Labs ABT. This is down about 2 and a half%. And um I'm kind of tempted to cover it only because we're coming right up against this long long long-term trend line, but I've just tightened the stop on that. Um I don't know. Wouldn't be a horrible place to cover. I'm torn on this one. But we are at major support down here. Um but I got into this at quite a good price because I took advantage of this huge rally here. So we've had a nice sink on that one. Uh Axon, the gift that keeps on giving. We're down on this one. Again, almost $9. Um, and again, just across the board, just tighten tightening the stops as appropriate as they move lower. Uh, typically the dash red line that I've drawn represents my stop-loss level, but this one has plenty more potential downside, I would say. You know what? I just realized a bigger burden. Um, here on the platform, uh, we can, uh, change our cursor to the spotlight where I'm pointing. So, excuse me. I I had that off this whole time. I'm usually better about that, but now when I wiggle it around, you can see what I'm doing. Um, I try to keep the aesthetics here to work well for you. I mean, you've probably noticed that the font is more readable now. So, I've set it to be bigger so you don't have to get your electron microscope out to read it, but um I'm usually better about the spotlight, so excuse me on that. Um, by this is having a nice drop. Um, this is down um over 7%. Again, it could be tempting to cover the short, but you know what? This is an enormous stop topping pattern. It may have more force to punch things lower, so I'm just going to hang on to it. I I've I've uh tightened the stop up to be anchored to Friday's low on that. Um Cracker Barrel down over 3%. And this one, we've seen kind of the bouncing rubber ball here work lower and lower. It had this huge rally. And um each of these I shorted about a couple of weeks ago or so. Um, so this is down, as I say, over 3%. So that's working out. Uh, Hilton, I love this chart. This is a terrific pattern. Look at this. You know, sometimes I throw grades out on this. This is I'll just give this an A. This is a straight A in terms of the head and shoulders on this. It doesn't get much cleaner. Um, we are sinking below the neckline. It's just a terrific chart. And just eyeballing this, the measured move on this is probably about 270, something like that. Um, so that's sinking slowly but surely. Um, Shake Shack SH AK down almost 3%. It's got this massive pattern here, this distribution top that I've kind of magentaed in front of you. And uh, so that's working out nicely. Um, Accenture another old wellestablished company. This is down over 4%. We've got a nice price gap on this one today. And um, you can see that it's been moving down very violently. We moved down from like 380 to about 120 and had a huge bounce almost back to 200 uh, which is where I shorted it. So, yay. Um, here's a new one. GameStop made very famous back in the co days with the um you know they made a movie about it. You don't often see full featurelength movies about a stock trade but they did about this one. Um but I'm short it and this is down um about 1 and a half% based on this enormous right triangle pattern. Just a very pretty here we'll throw another grade out. This is a good A minus I would say in terms of the quality of that right triangle. um ice IC which is intercontinental exchange. Tremendous stop on this. Um this isn't good that it pierced the pattern so so wretchedly, but um it's still worth a shot because the long-term picture on this is still quite a nice top. So uh that one's down almost 2% on the day. Owl, Blue Owl Capital, which is very uh woven into the whole hyperscaling effort. A lot of risk uh with respect to that. Down 4% on Owl. I've added to that position today. Pinterest down about 1.2%. Not a terrific looking chart, but it's, you know, it's Pinterest. It's uh worth a tiny fraction of its peak value. I It's probably got more to go. Um Planet Labs PL off a little bit. Um, I did take profits on my Rocket Lab short, for example. Um, and as I said, I'm bullish on SpaceX. This one, yeah, I'm hanging on the position. Maybe that's a mistake. We got a cute little hammer going on today on this one. But, uh, long term, it still looks potentially bearish. Um, Shopify, this is a good one. Off almost 8% today. Um, we went blasting up here. So, we rallied from 95 up to about 160. And this is starting to break down. So once again, I've dragged that dash red line to the the price gap, which is Friday's low for a new updated stop-loss price. And a couple more of these individual ones. Workday, WD-Y. This is off over 5%. Price cap on that one, too. And that's extra nice because um now the ENQ is red. God bless it. that is, you know, basically unchanged even with tech stocks being strong, which I think has everything to do with Astra JPT6. Um, we are seeing some breakdowns in these, you know, four character symbols. And the last one, which I'm pretty pleased with, is is Wix. Um, this I shorted I think here I want to say I think I got it on this day. I might have either this day or this day and it's been going down. um it may be a little bit stretched to the downside right now, but uh yeah, we'll we'll see if it gets stopped out or not, but so far so good on that. Now, I want to go back to this um kind of struggling I'm having with uh with themes. Um and it has to do with precious metals. And we're going to look at it at first by way of crypto because anybody who's seen me my show more than one day knows that I'm a long-term precious metals bull. Gold, silver, to a lesser degree the miners. Although most gold nuts are like crazy about the miners and to a lesser degree the the metal. But I made longterm precious metals. Bull. People call me a perbear. I'm a perma bull now on precious. Um, I was that way back when it was $1,300 an ounce and $1,200 an ounce. And my friends would tell me how boring gold was. Well, you know, yeah, it's boring compared to Nvidia if you happen to hold it all this time, but you know what? 300% gain, it's not bad. Um, and I think that when equities do get hit that it'll really shine. So, know this that I am a bull on metals. Um, the quandry I'm in right now is that I keep waiting for crypto to have a nice smackdown because I think that'll drag precious right down with it. I don't know if it's going to happen or not though. Uh, as we look here at Bitcoin, um, we are at 78,000 now about. And what's taken place recently? Well, we formed a base here beneath 67,000. We had this tremendous rally which got everybody bullish on crypto again. and we're still kind of there. Uh we had peaked at uh 82,262 and we've shaved off about $4,000 from there, but we got to sink really hard to create the kind of bargain that I would like to see in precious. But the thing is, it may not happen. I hope it still does. And longterm it kind of doesn't matter because if you get gold at $4,400 an ounce or $4,000 an ounce, I think in the long haul it doesn't make much difference. But I'm being cheap and I'd rather wait to see if I can get a better price for it. So that that's why I'm kind of sitting on my hands right now because we're just kind of hanging out here for weeks uh in the high7s, low 80s area. If the day comes that we see Bitcoin go and get smacked down to 67,000, my attention is going to turn directly over to the metals to see what to do there because I think we'll have some good prices. Um, we can see that the the crypto rally in some sectors just shows no sign of even taking a breather. Uh, here's STRC Strategy Inc. up not massively, but it's green 4% lifetime high. Um, here's Ethereum, the kind of the number two crypto. And yes, it blasted higher and yes, it's underneath resistance, but it too is just kind of hanging out around here. And what we want to see is the kind of drop that we can get back down to this kind of range here, roughly speaking, something like that, under 2,000 in order to um get precious relatively cheap. um the adjunct you know the analog here Bitcoin is to STRC as Ethereum is to ASST. So Strive is also um been strong um as you can plainly see. Um, but I will mention as an aside that um, MSTR, which is like the real strategy, um, looks pretty vulnerable because just as Tesla has all the overhead supply, so does MSTR tremendous amount from present price levels all the way up to about 500. So, um, you know, if if we fell on this one, just the equivalent smackdown would be down to about 107. I think precious would be a very good value. So, not doing anything on this, just watching this closely. I think that's, you know, people wonder like what good is Bitcoin for? Well, we found our we found our utility here. Bitcoin is good for finding out when to buy gold. Um, speaking of gold, um, GC is down about $64 right now. And, um, you know, I won't show you the razor charts yet again, but you've gotten the idea from from that. Those are very, very bullish. Um, to me, if if we if we could get back down to this trend line, that would be a jumping up and down buy. Even if we could get down to this level here, it would be a not jumping up and down, but standing firmly erect buy. So, um, let's call it 4100 to 40 250 thereabouts would be an appealing price. But getting back down to this trend line for whatever reason, I think would would be an exciting opportunity. Uh, as far as GLD itself, obviously it's down to about 1 and a half%. And um, you know, it looks vulnerable, but getting back down to this basing area would achieve the same stuff I'm talking about. Um, because they really lined up the the crypto and the gold. That kind of base we saw with silver, we saw with gold, we've seen with Bitcoin, and we've seen with Ethereum. It's all kind of one and the same. So, um, no position, no intent to get into one unless all that happens, which is a nice hearty sell-off. Um, semiconductors used to be almost the entire focus of this segment. Uh, I talk about them a lot less now because for the moment, uh, the pattern has soured somewhat. But let's add some color to that. The principal pattern I'm talking about is this diamond right here. And we fell away from it. We rallied, found resistance, fell away harder. So far so good. This is what's supposed to happen. Rallied. And here was kind of the the wart in it. We got a little higher than the last time. We pushed past that resistance by somewhat. Not a huge deal. Not a complete deal breaker, but it kind of was a fly in the ointment. And then we fell. And here's another fly in the ointment. It didn't fall nearly as far as it did the last time. So, we we seem to be finding some stability around here as opposed to what I was looking for, which was a push all the way down to this channel. But instead, we're kind of uh lingering in the same price range where this diamond was established. Having said all that, uh, as of today, I've re-entered an SMH January put position on SMH and I've also shorted small SMH position with a stop loss right there, 592, just above that price gap because if we get the kind of the only uh feature on this chart that I think is useful in terms of a stop is that price gap and uh if if that gets violated Uh maybe we'll we'll conquer heads on this midline, but I don't want to sit around and find out. This has been too robust for my liking. So, we're going to give this another go. Um some individual stuff like AMD is just way too strong. I even kicked it out of my bare pin. So, um very tentative on this. Um you can see the spoilage even more extreme with the likes of SanDisk. This pattern was a beauty. Like, so what a wreck. What an absolute wreck. now. So, it's been completely ruined. Um, and I don't go near this stuff. Haven't traded this in weeks and weeks. But, um, that one of the just before we get off the topic of semi, I will mention Kor, the leveraged South Korean, um, ETF, still bearish looking of all things. There's the stop-loss right there. That price gap, let's call it $26. So, weirdly, the leverage one could be the best choice among all these because it's behaving itself much more cleanly than the others are. Um, okay, getting near the bottom of the average. Two last charts. Bonds off a little bitty bit. Um, boring as always, but this Friday morning should help inform that because like I say, that'll be the last big data point before the Fed. And the last last last chart is the ES which no surprise is just like what you would expect because the spider were rangebound on that. So too were rangebound here. Let's drag this a little lower to take into account that lower price we saw last week. So we got to get below this level here in order for the bears to have any kind of chance at any kind of selling. Um and they will consider this top here to be the resistance level. So we're just kind of hanging out at 7,700. So, all in all, a profitable day, but you got to be on your toes. You got to find the right opportunities underneath the surface because it's not the 1.0 correlation days. Those are over. Okay, that's it from me. Thanks for your time and I will see you tomorrow. Thanks. Bye-bye.