The Houthi-Saudi Maritime Embargo Nobody's Talking About
- Video return
- +13.29%
- Calls
- 5
- Buy / Sell
- 3 2
- Published
Recommendations
Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.
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Entry $206.77 25 Jul 2026Current $260.78 09 Sep 2026Result +$54.01vs. index +22.9% SPY +3.2% over the same days
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Surrounding source transcript
worse here. >> No, that what I think things are worse and I don't think things are going to get anywhere I don't think markedly better anytime soon. And the things we've been talking about continue to work and our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce. So, regardless of what you think about the price of crude oil, which by the wa…
our refiners can PSX all-time high
AI-extracted context "our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce."
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Entry $309.24 25 Jul 2026Current $399.44 09 Sep 2026Result +$90.20vs. index +26.0% SPY +3.2% over the same days
Cite this call Watch source video * †
Surrounding source transcript
…here. >> No, that what I think things are worse and I don't think things are going to get anywhere I don't think markedly better anytime soon. And the things we've been talking about continue to work and our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce. So, regardless of what you think about the price of crude oil, which by the way I think will go hi…
Marathon Petroleum
AI-extracted context "our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce."
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Entry $302.50 25 Jul 2026Current $388.95 09 Sep 2026Result +$86.45vs. index +25.4% SPY +3.2% over the same days
Cite this call Watch source video * †
Surrounding source transcript
…at I think things are worse and I don't think things are going to get anywhere I don't think markedly better anytime soon. And the things we've been talking about continue to work and our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce. So, regardless of what you think about the price of crude oil, which by the way I think will go higher, I think you got t…
Valero all-time highs
AI-extracted context "our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce."
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Entry $561.19 25 Jul 2026Current $574.29 09 Sep 2026Result −$13.10vs. index −5.5% SPY +3.2% over the same days
I think you're going to continue to sell rallies in this space.
AI-extracted context "this is one where I I think you're going to continue to sell rallies in this space"
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Entry $92.32 25 Jul 2026Current $106.24 09 Sep 2026Result −$13.92vs. index −18.3% SPY +3.2% over the same days
Cite this call Watch source video * †
Surrounding source transcript
…ey do, I mean, the SMH almost closed down on the day, right? And you saw some huge reversals from stocks that were up 5 6 7%. So, um you know, this is one where I I think you're going to continue to sell rallies in this space and you know, just use Intel as an example. I mean, here's a stock that was an absolute darling. It was a you know, late to the party for a whole host of reasons and then, you know, the thing's down 30% right now. There is a gap below here going back to their last quarterly report t…
just use Intel as an example.
AI-extracted context "this is one where I I think you're going to continue to sell rallies in this space and you know, just use Intel as an example."
Full Transcript
worse here. >> No, that what I think things are worse and I don't think things are going to get anywhere I don't think markedly better anytime soon. And the things we've been talking about continue to work and our refiners can PSX all-time high, Marathon Petroleum, Valero all-time highs, OIH getting off the mat although it closed lower today and even the big cap integrated names are starting to bounce. So, regardless of what you think about the price of crude oil, which by the way I think will go higher, I think you got to stay long on these energy stocks. >> Yeah, and and when oil goes up, that's a sticky price. So, the refiners spread the crack spread, what they actually refine and what they sell it for, those prices stay static a lot longer than that input price can fluctuate dramatically, giving them a better margin on it. So, if you're going to be in that space, sounds like there's going to be an underlying bid in the energy space. I would just continue to stay with the refiners. >> So, I was surprised I mean, coming in last night coming into today was really not looking so good. I was surprised happily see the sort of tensions cooling a little bit in the morning, but I was surprised as the day went on that oil wasn't higher. Yeah. I I would have thought that it would go higher. So, um I you know, I'm long energy and every time energy comes in off of some good news, I look to add. But, um I think the market is just sort of waiting. AI trade has been everything and all right, we got to see what are they actually going to earn? What are they going to tell us? >> Yeah, semis and software were okay today. I mean, they were weak towards the end, but they were okay relative to the broader market. >> Horrible price action though. I mean, when you think about it, we've seen this um you know, this back and forth with semis. I mean, Friday was a very bad day and if you look at today, so it was a nice little bounce. I think semis memory they were definitely oversold on a near-term basis, but the fact that they opened up and closed that the way they do, I mean, the SMH almost closed down on the day, right? And you saw some huge reversals from stocks that were up 5 6 7%. So, um you know, this is one where I I think you're going to continue to sell rallies in this space and you know, just use Intel as an example. I mean, here's a stock that was an absolute darling. It was a you know, late to the party for a whole host of reasons and then, you know, the thing's down 30% right now. There is a gap below here going back to their last quarterly report that it really feels like it has the potential to go and fill. That would be cutting the stock in half from those recent all-time highs. And when you get to some of these reports over the next couple of weeks, I'm just hard-pressed to think that the guidance that these companies are going to be able to give will not be discounted. Now, it depends [clears throat] how oversold that they are. The further oversold they get, the higher that the potential they have to pop. But, I'm just not sure they're sustainable at this stage of the game. >> Or they can give good reports and they can have good guidance and they can still have the reaction that would that's hostile, basically down. >> seen in the last couple quarters. Yeah, with the memory stocks. I mean, if go back two quarters ago, it happened in Micron. It happened again. I mean, Micron made an all-time high at 1,200 and change, traded down to the prior all-time high in May of 805, which we flagged should have been support and it was, but it's not like the bounce has been that resounding. So, to your point, you could still have great quarters and bad price action. >> Should we rethink this AI trade at this point? I mean, given with Moonshots Kimmy K3 and Alibaba Quan. I mean, and just the whole narrative even prior to those releases of are we overspending? Is are we going to get the money back from our spend? >> Uh-huh. I don't know is the short answer, but I do really want to hear from I mean, that's why it's going to be so interesting. I do think that the demand side of the equation is so enormous and doesn't get as much focus as the supply side and the competition and so, um I'm still at the moment going into earnings staying long. >> It's about free cash flow. I've been saying this for for weeks now. If you look at it, there's a correlation between the two. Stock price once they're eliminating that free cash flow. Look at what an Oracle where they went cash flow negative. Look at where where any of these companies that used to just be stockpiling money, free cash flow and margins through the roof. Once those start to disintegrate, investors lose patience with that store, and I think that's the near term end to the entire AI story.
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