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The "Tech Rotation" Everyone Missed

The "Tech Rotation" Everyone Missed

Chip Stock Investor
Analyzed Watch on YouTube Requested On
Video return
+7.71%
Calls
6
Buy / Sell
6 0
Published

Recommendations

Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.

  1. 01 MSFT NASDAQ BUY +22.58%
    Entry $401.10 16 Jul 2026
    Current $491.65 09 Sep 2026
    Result +$90.55
    vs. index +21.0% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

  2. 02 AMZN NASDAQ BUY +1.00%
    Entry $249.89 16 Jul 2026
    Current $252.40 09 Sep 2026
    Result +$2.51
    vs. index −0.6% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

  3. 03 GOOGL NASDAQ BUY -6.72%
    Entry $354.46 16 Jul 2026
    Current $330.65 09 Sep 2026
    Result −$23.81
    vs. index −8.3% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

  4. 04 META NASDAQ BUY -1.63%
    Entry $664.54 16 Jul 2026
    Current $653.69 09 Sep 2026
    Result −$10.85
    vs. index −3.2% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

  5. 05 ORCL NYSE BUY +30.06%
    Entry $124.27 16 Jul 2026
    Current $161.63 09 Sep 2026
    Result +$37.36
    vs. index +28.5% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

  6. 06 SMH NASDAQ BUY +0.94%
    Entry $568.92 16 Jul 2026
    Current $574.29 09 Sep 2026
    Result +$5.37
    vs. index −0.6% SPY +1.6% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source video * † ‡

    part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers.

Full Transcript
The following video is an excerpt from one of our CSI Live Events we have every Wednesday morning at 8:00 AM Pacific. And the reason we made this video is we really need to just get back to basic fundamentals here. Why are semiconductor stocks, especially memory and optical, booming in 2026? It always has been and continues to be the hyperscaler capital expenditures. Massive amount of money moving to the semiconductor industry because of the build-out of these AI data centers. We're gonna take a look at this hyperscaler CapEx with the help from our friends over at fiscal.ai. We've got a ton of charts from them today. Fiscal.ai has a great set of tools to measure and continue to track things like hyperscaler CapEx with company KPIs. Make sure you check out fiscal.ai/csi. It gets you a 15% discount on any paid plan. They've got a ton of new features. As I mentioned, fund letters is a new thing. Connect your brokerage account. Fiscal keeps getting better and better. fiscal.ai/csi. And with that, let's take a look at that hyperscaler CapEx. Where is all of this coming from? It's pretty simple. Hyperscalers. Here's hyperscaler capital expenditure. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle. Oracle just reported, that's why you see they're all alone there on the Q2 2026 line all the way to the right. But all of these companies spending massive amounts of dollars, 800 billion this year. We're gonna see this number, the trailing 12-month number there in Q1 2026. It was at 482 billion. We're gonna see that probably go to 800 billion by Q4 of this year, over the next three quarters, and then the expectation is it probably sails through a trillion dollars next year. At this particular point, that's the expectation. This is, as Warren Buffett famously gets quoted as saying, "A rising tide floats all boats." This is the rising tide, these capital expenditures. And what's crazy about this, some of these talks about rotation out of tech stocks, out of hardware happening the first week of July, this is actually the rotation, and there's gonna be bumps in the road. But after 15 years of big tech dominance, of very fast and steady growth, accumulating massive amounts of wealth, having massive amounts of money flow through their ecosystems, there you can see the free cash flow, that money is now getting redistributed via the CapEx to the semiconductor companies and to manufacturing companies, in various areas of the economy. Not just semiconductors, but also the power grid, the electric grid, and energy generation, construction, having a pretty good field day here with this. And it's not just the free cash flow that they have to burn. Look at the cash and cash equivalents on balance. They can basically fund this crazy amount of capital expenditure via their cash on balance and their free cash flow generation for probably a couple of years before they ran out and then had to start making hard decisions. Not everybody's in the same boat. Obviously, Oracle raising debt, they're not nearly as big. But this is the actual rotation. This is the actual tide that's lifting all of this, and so this is the primary macro indicator. Everything else really is some variation of noise. Some of it may be slightly relevant, others not so much. And so, the stock volatility kind of just goes with the territory. This is also why we say part of a diversified tech portfolio should include semiconductor companies, but also the actual end market companies as well. Not just software, but also companies that include software and infrastructure and other services like the hyperscalers. They have advertising businesses, media businesses, infrastructure, they have devices. They have all sorts of stuff going on. When they decide they've collectively spent enough on the infrastructure, what's going to happen? The tide's gonna change. That will be the actual rotation. If they stop spending CapEx, what happens to their free cash flow? It goes back up. And probably to crazy new all-time high levels because they're picking up lots of new revenue along the way. So when they turn off the CapEx, if their free cash flow margin rebounds back to 30%-plus like they were reporting a couple years ago, you're getting a 30% free cash flow margin on a much, much larger revenue base than in the past. Just kinda going back full circle again, this is one way to be fully diversified. I know the hyperscalers and Nvidia have not been super fun to be invested in the last 9, 10 months. But if you're worried about the rotation out of semiconductors, especially the hottest semiconductor stocks, this is one way you can be diversified.

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