…at today's price, I definitely expect some violent pullbacks. But the underlying business has changed enough. The AI memory shortage looks durable enough and the valuation remains reasonable enough that I don't think the story is finished. And despite Micron's massive run, I still think this stock is a strong buy. And before you go, don't forget to grab my free report on the top 10 stocks to buy and hold right now. These are companies I believe offer the best combination of long-term growth potential and strong underlying businesses. Just click the …
And despite Micron's massive run, I still think this stock is a strong buy.
Contexte extrait par IA
There's obviously less upside than when Brown recommended it 18 months ago at $100. And at today's price, I definitely expect some violent pullbacks. But the underlying business has changed enough. The AI memory shortage looks durable enough and the valuation remains reasonable enough that I don't think the story is finished. And despite Micron's massive run, I still think this stock is a strong buy. And before you go, don't forget to grab my free report on the top 10 stocks to buy and hold right now.
Transcription Complète
Everybody knows that Nvidia has been one of the biggest winners of the AI boom, but popular stock picker Jeff Brown says investors may be overlooking something even more important in his latest presentation. And due to the growing technology war between the US and China, one stock has a chance to dethrow Nvidia as the king of AI. The problem? Brown won't reveal the name of the stock unless you buy his newsletter. However, I sat down and watched this hourong presentation and was able to figure out the stock based on the clues in the presentation. And in this video, I'm going to reveal it completely free. Before we do anything, let's examine Jeff Brown's recent track record to see if he's worth listening to. In May 2025, he recommended GE Vernova. That one has turned into a huge winner with a stock more than doubling. Another pick was Vertive. This one has been one of his best calls with shares climbing over 100%. Then he recommended Astera Labs. That stock exploded higher after the pitch and became another massive winner. Then in June 2025, Brown recommended Owen Semiconductor. That one has done well also gaining roughly 50%. However, not every pick has worked well. Recently in October 2025, he recommended PayPal. That stock has struggled since then and remains below where he pitched it. So overall, Jeff's track record has been very, very strong, and he's been on a really good hot streak. Now, let's quickly go over the presentation and what Jeff Brown is saying and figure out the stock. Jeff Brown's entire pitch revolves around what he calls the AI master key, high bandwidth memory or HBM. His argument is that Nvidia may make the brains powering AI, but those GPUs need an enormous amount of fast memory to actually work. And as AI models get larger, Brown believes HPM is becoming one of the biggest bottlenecks in the entire industry. He says only three companies in the world can manufacture HPM at scale, and one of them is the mystery stock he's teasing in this presentation. A huge part of this thesis also revolves around the technology war going on between the US and China. Brown argues China is years behind in advance HBM while the US is restricting its access to both these chips and the specialized equipment needed to manufacture them. And the market size claims are enormous. Brown sites projections that the broader memory market behind HPM could grow nearly 1,200% to more than 2 trillion a year by 2030. While major AI companies are already locking up supply years in advance, he also leans on his past calls, reminding viewers that he recommended Nvidia back in 2016, long before its enormous AIdriven run. So, the pitch is really this. If AI spending continues to explode, the companies controlling this critical memory bottleneck could end up being some of the biggest winners of the entire boom. And here are the specific clues that Brown leaves us to figure out the stock. Luckily, there's only three of these companies in the world, so it was pretty easy to figure out. He says the company's pitching was founded in 1978 in Boise, Idaho in the basement of a dental office. That's an unusually specific origin story, and only one major semiconductor company matches it. There are only three major HPM manufacturers. The one he's pitching is the only American in the group, and it was founded in Boise 1978 in a dentist basement, and only one company fits all those clues. I'm going to reveal the stock in 15 seconds. But before I do, I want to tell you about my free report on the top 10 stocks to buy and hold right now. These are companies I believe have the best mix of strong long-term potential and growth. When you're done watching, click the link in the description, enter your email, and I'll send it right to your inbox. The stock being pitched here is Micron, ticker MU. This is actually a stock Jeff Brown pitched probably about 18 months ago, and I actually bought it when he did. and the stock has grown over a,000% and he's repitching it. If you appreciate me figuring out the stock for you, make sure to drop a like. And now we actually have to figure out if Micron is still a buy after this,000% gain it's already had. And to do that, we're going to first start with what this company actually does. And then after I'll give you my final rating. In simple terms, Micron makes memory chips, the components that allow computers, phones, data centers, and AI processors to quickly store and access information. And increasingly, one of its most important products is HBM, the ultra fast memory sitting alongside advanced AI processors. So, Brown is absolutely right that Micron is one of the best ways to invest in the AI memory boom. And the numbers right now for Micron are pretty extraordinary. Micron just reported 54.2 billion in quarterly revenue compared with only 11.3 billion a year earlier. And management is guiding for about 61.5 billion next quarter. Its long-term customer commitments have also surged as companies fight to secure memory supply. The stock is now over $1,000 after its enormous run, although it's still below its recent highs of around 1,255. And despite this massive run, the valuation is still pretty interesting. Based on fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings, you're paying roughly 14 times trailing earnings, while some analysts estimate only 5 to six times next year's earnings if this memory boom continues. So the business is clearly booming. The question now is whether those earnings are sustainable or whether investors are buying near the peak of another memory cycle and that's what we need to figure out in the verdict. All right, here's my thoughts and verdicts on Jeff Brown's presentation and whether or not Micron is actually a buy. Despite the overtop marketing, the core argument Jeff Brown is making in this presentation actually holds up pretty well. Brown says there are basically three major companies competing in HBM. SKHEX, Samsung, and Micron. That's true. And he says Micron is the only American in the group. That's also true. And the idea that HPM has become one of the critical bottlenecks and AI is also true. These advanced AI accelerators require enormous amounts of high bandwidth memory and demand has been growing faster than manufacturers can add supply. Where I'd be a little careful is the market size claim that Jeff Brown makes. Brown talks about a market potentially growing beyond two trillion annually by 2030, but that's not a prediction that HPM itself will become a $2 trillion market. Micron's own forecast has the HPM market reaching roughly 100 billion by 2028. The trillion dollar forecast referred to the much broader memory industry, including Drram, Nan, and other memory products. So, I just wouldn't walk away from this video thinking HBM is going to be worth $2 trillion a year by 2030. And I'd also make a similar correction to Brown's China argument. China really is behind in the HPM today and that's an advantage for Micron, but I don't think it's accurate to say they're nearly a decade behind or incapable of making these chips. China's largest memory manufacturer CXMT is reportedly already experimenting with HBM3e while Micron Samsung and SKHEX are moving into HBM4. So technologically, China may be closer to one generation behind. The bigger gap is actually in manufacturing. China still doesn't have access to ASML's EUV lithography machines. Its domestic HPM production remains tiny and it hasn't demonstrated that it can manufacture these chips at the yield scale and quality required by the world's largest AI companies. And that's an important distinction. Making an HPM chip in a development line is one thing. Making millions of them economically and getting companies like Nvidia to trust them inside their most expensive AI systems is just something completely different. So, I do think Brown has a legitimate point that export restrictions create a major competitive advantage for Micron. I just wouldn't assume China is going to stay locked out of this market forever. Now, on to Micron itself, which is actually pretty difficult to evaluate today. Historically, this has been one of the most cyclical businesses in the semiconductor industry. Memory companies make too much money when supply is tight. That encourages everyone to spend billions building more capacity. But eventually, supply meets demand. Memory prices collapse, margins disappear, and then everyone cuts production and the whole cycle starts again. This cycle has destroyed investors who assumed peak micron earnings would simply continue forever. And right now, those are unquestionably peak looking numbers. Micron Micron generated about 37 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. One year later, revenue exploded to more than 133 billion. Net income went from 8.5 billion to nearly 85 billion. Those aren't normal year-over-year increases. So, if you're valuing Micron, assuming today's memory prices and today's margins simply continue indefinitely, I think that's dangerous. But there is an argument that this cycle is actually different. And this is the part of Brown's thesis I find most interesting. AI doesn't simply require more memory. It requires dramatically more memory per accelerator. And HPM is much more technically difficult to manufacture than traditional commodity DRAM. At the same time, building new semiconductor capacity takes years. So supply can't immediately respond when demand jumps. More importantly, Micro is changing the way it's selling memory. Instead of simply producing chips and hoping for whatever price the spot markets give them, the company has been signing long-term strategic customer agreements. Micron previously disclosed agreements containing price floors and roughly a 100red billion of minimum contracted revenue. Those agreements have continued to expand. After its latest earnings report, Micron had around $150 billion remaining performance obligations while with customers making billions of dollars in commitments to secure future supply. That doesn't eliminate cyclicality, but it gives Micron something previous memory cycles didn't have nearly much of visibility. Customers are essentially saying, "We need capacity years from now, and we're willing to commit money today to make sure we get it." And AI is also creating an interesting second order effect. Every wafer micron dedicates to HPM is capacity that can't be used for a conventional drram. So booming HPM demand can tighten supply across the rest of the memory market as well. That's one reason pricing has become so powerful. Now there are still things that give me pause. The first is simply how far the stock has already gone. Micron is now worth around $1.2 trillion. We're no longer talking about an overlooked hundred billion chip company. expectations are absolutely enormous. The second concern is profitability. Current margins are extraordinary. Micron's fiscal 2026 gross margin was above 80%. I would not build an investment thesis around Micron permanently earning margins anywhere close to this level. Then there's also competition. SKH Highix is not standing still. Samsung is not standing still. And eventually, China could become a meaningful fourth competitor. All three established companies are already spending enormous amounts of money increasing capacity. Micron itself spent more than 27 billion on capital expenditures last year. Eventually, some of that capacity is going to hit the market. So, the question isn't whether memory is tight today. Clearly, it is. The question is whether demand can keep growing fast enough to absorb all the capacity being built for 2027, 2028, and beyond. And that brings me to what has to be true for Brown's thesis to work into the next coming years. First, AI infrastructure spending needs to remain enormous for years, not just for a couple of quarters. We need hyperscalers continuing to build data centers, new AI models requiring more memory, and inference workloads becoming larger rather than more efficient at reducing memory requirements. Second, Micron needs to prove that these long-term customer agreements really change the economics of the business. When the next period of weaker demand eventually arrives, I want to see revenue margins hold up materially better than they did in previous memory downturns. That's how we'll know this is actually becoming a structurally better company rather than simply the greatest memory cycle we've ever seen. And third, Micron needs to maintain its technological position in HBM. It doesn't necessarily have to beat SKH Highix. It needs to remain one of the critical suppliers, continue winning business on the next generations of HBM, and maintain enough of a technological lead that Chinese competition doesn't start pressuring price. If those things happen, then something very unusual could become possible. Micron could have the growth characteristics of an AI infrastructure company while still trading at a valuation that assumes a meaningful amount of cyclicality. Because despite the stock trading over $1,000, you're paying only around 14 times last year's earnings. An analyst expecting another major earnings increase next year have it trading at dramatically lower forward multiples. That's why I don't think the fact that the stock is up roughly 10fold automatically means you're too late. There's obviously less upside than when Brown recommended it 18 months ago at $100. And at today's price, I definitely expect some violent pullbacks. But the underlying business has changed enough. The AI memory shortage looks durable enough and the valuation remains reasonable enough that I don't think the story is finished. And despite Micron's massive run, I still think this stock is a strong buy. And before you go, don't forget to grab my free report on the top 10 stocks to buy and hold right now. These are companies I believe offer the best combination of long-term growth potential and strong underlying businesses. Just click the link in the description, enter your email, and I'll send the full report straight to your inbox.
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